MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND N CNTRL OK INTO NE KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
VALID 150015Z - 150115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.
LONG-LIVED...MODESTLY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 30
KT...THROUGH THE OPEN WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
REMAINS WEAK/UNCERTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...AND INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME WITH SURFACE COOLING. HOWEVER...BENEATH
DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...STORM-SCALE
DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY INTO AT LEAST THE
02-04Z TIME FRAME. CELLS APPEAR GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS /50-70 KT AT 850 MB/...WHERE
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE WITH CELLS DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...NEAR/SOUTH OF WICHITA...ASSOCIATED WITH INFLOW OF AT LEAST
A BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THAN CELLS FARTHER NORTH.
OTHERWISE...NW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE BACK TO THE WEST
ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
RETREATED WESTWARD SOME THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
..KERR.. 04/15/2012
. We're already way beyond what was expected up to this point in tornado reports...some models didn't even show cells firing for the most part until now. With that said, I'm confused as to why there isn't more aerial coverage up north and slight delay of most intense supercell part of outbreak in general. Multiple rounds of storms firing is likely and the storms haven't hit the most densely populated areas yet.
