ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[USTropics]

Here's an image I took yesterday (VIS/SWIR 2km with low-mid level dry air overlay) compared to today. You can see how the dry air was being entrained in the first image. Notice the thinning of the clouds from the dry air (graphically enhanced ):



Now here is the current image of Danny. The dry air has moved westerly faster then Danny. This should help illustrate what AJC3 and Ryan Maue were detailing earlier (tweet below):



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/634105591678566400

[ConvergenceZone]

yea, that does look like an eye, yet the NHC is stating it could become a hurricane on "friday" so I'm thinking that must not be an eye........ lol....

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the downstream possibilities...I'm thinking that 97L will eventually have a lot do with Danny's future track. If 97L hangs out long enough it will keep the western edge of the high eroded and Danny will follow the weakness to go swim with the fishes. If 97L slides north faster then the ridge between 97L and Danny could fill back in allowing for a more westward track. This all assumes that Danny even survives the upcoming shear and dry air.

SFT

[USTropics]

yea, that does look like an eye, yet the NHC is stating it could become a hurricane on "friday" so I'm thinking that must not be an eye........ lol....

Yes I picked up on the sarcasm and yes that totally is an eye

[SouthFLTropics]

Danny is firing up real nice reds on IR right now right around that tight, compact center. I wouldn't be surprised if it is once again taking advantage of some favorable conditions and is undergoing RI at the moment. We've seen throughout history how these tight, compact storms can ramp up very quickly (Andrew and Charley come to mind). A big punch in a small package.

SFT

[galaxy401]

Wow what a sudden change of events for the storm. Remember when many of us thought this would never reach a hurricane? To be fair I didn't expect it to strengthen this quick either.

[tropicwatch]

There is an ascat/windsat pass scheduled for a little after noon central time. That should be telling.

[stormlover2013]

danny isn't a fish my friend

[tropicwatch]

danny isn't a fish my friend

Your impression of the most interesting man in the world

[Siker]

Eye is now obscured on IR by burst of deep convection:

[ouragans]

There is an ascat/windsat pass scheduled for a little after noon central time. That should be telling.

The question is to know if the NHC will wait until that next pass, or if they classify Danny at 15z. Answer in a few minutes

[TheStormExpert]

There is an ascat/windsat pass scheduled for a little after noon central time. That should be telling.

The question is to know if the NHC will wait until that next pass, or if they classify Danny at 15z. Answer in a few minutes

I'm going to guess wait.

[NCSTORMMAN]

If NHC keeps this a tropical storm then post analysis will have this a hurricane. NHC can see the same eye I can see.

[hurricanekid416]

They upgraded to a hurricane

[talkon]

Upgraded to 65kts C1 hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

There is an ascat/windsat pass scheduled for a little after noon central time. That should be telling.

The question is to know if the NHC will wait until that next pass, or if they classify Danny at 15z. Answer in a few minutes

I'm going to guess wait.

Spoke too soon.

[tatertawt24]

Aww, it's cute. <3

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep, looks like they are going to upgrade...Next GFS run is going to be very interesting.

SFT

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 201447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

[size=150]...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...[/size]


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[galaxy401]

First hurricane!

Kinda funny how it stayed at 50 mph for over 24 hours then suddenly it jumps to hurricane strength where the last advisory forecast it to peak at.