ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Medtronic15]

last hour or so looks like a low level circ is taking shape roughly here with the recent convection building. the MLC is to the NE but not far.

recon takes off in soon at least according to the plan of the day. if they canceled it then it was not mentioned. if so the not 930Z take off is next one.

http://www.nhc.noaa.go

Maybe here?

[Aric Dunn]

last hour or so looks like a low level circ is taking shape roughly here with the recent convection building. the MLC is to the NE but not far.

recon takes off in soon at least according to the plan of the day. if they canceled it then it was not mentioned. if so the not 930Z take off is next one.

http://www.nhc.noaa.go


[img]http://s16.postimg.org/74lkpo6ud/rgb0_lalo.gif[/mg]

Maybe here?

it is possible there is something under the MLC there is no way to confirm without recon or some good surface obs. from satellite analysis only evidence is from the low level flow. like I mentioned it will all depend where any convection persists.

thats also from 4 hours ago..

that and in that image there are three separate vorts.. anyone could take over.

[JtSmarts]

Posting here not to clutter the model thread. GFS is fast, only about a week away from impact at the earliest. Verbatim shows a NC hit on next Thursday but it's at FL's latitude by 0z on Wednesday.

[Hurricaneman]

The center is at 55.7W 12.8N

[SeGaBob]

The center is at 55.7W 12.8N

Good rotation there anyway

[Aric Dunn]

The center is at 55.7W 12.8N

Good rotation there anyway

thats all in the midlevels. looks at the low level flow. the light grey clouds.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Alyono]

anything at the low levels may be as far west as 58W

[Aric Dunn]

anything at the low levels may be as far west as 58W

agreed. low level vorticity is not under MLC. things are likely to quickly change over the next 6 to 12 hours.

[WeatherEmperor]

anything at the low levels may be as far west as 58W

agreed. low level vorticity is not under MLC. things are likely to quickly change over the next 6 to 12 hours.

In what ways??


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[Alyono]

looks like there may be 20 kts of shear over this, mainly due to very fast low level easterlies.

This was not supposed to happen

[WeatherEmperor]

looks like there may be 20 kts of shear over this, mainly due to very fast low level easterlies.

This was not supposed to happen

Yeah but you forget this is 2016. It would shock us all if it didnt happen.


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[Aric Dunn]

anything at the low levels may be as far west as 58W

agreed. low level vorticity is not under MLC. things are likely to quickly change over the next 6 to 12 hours.

In what ways??


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In terms of convection. there is a large amount of rotational energy in the low to mid levels which has yet to work to the surface fully but with every convective burst we get vort after vort develop an die at the surface adding the energy. I like to call it "bottoming out" the fluid mechanics of it ( dealing with maximum rotational energy within a fairly diffuse fluid ) where due to pressure and density cause the left side or lower pressures to "pile" up on the southern portion of the vorticity forcing the eastern side to accelerate to the north then west further transferring energy ( assuming convection is present to intern transfer the energy to the surface). kind like if you were holding a rope at one end and someone was hold the other end and you both were spinning around with the "center of rotation" being in the middle of the rope... then all of a sudden one of you stops and the rotational momentum transfers to the the person on the outside causing them to accelerate.

which then ( following lines of pressure in the atmosphere) transfers that energy inwards towards the lower pressure. anyway...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

looks like there may be 20 kts of shear over this, mainly due to very fast low level easterlies.

This was not supposed to happen

According to whom? There's a reason models only slowly developed this storm through the Windward Islands. This was completely expected.

[Aric Dunn]

the biggest thing in this scenario is convection.. that is a very well pronounced low to MLC. convection is the only thing that will bring that energy to the surface.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

97L's convection has continued to become better organized and consolidated today. A microwave pass around 21z showed nice structure. I'd wager the only reason we don't currently have Matthew is because of the lack of an aircraft in the system.

[Alyono]

right now, the structure reminds me of Fay pre genesis.

We either need the convection to collapse and let the low level feature take over, or for the low level feature to dissipate, and let a new low level feature form near the MLC. I lean toward the latter in this scenario

[Aric Dunn]

right now, the structure reminds me of Fay pre genesis.

We either need the convection to collapse and let the low level feature take over, or for the low level feature to dissipate, and let a new low level feature form near the MLC. I lean toward the latter in this scenario

This is a classic convective born system we are not likely going to see convection collapse enough to see that transfer. wherever convection can concentrate enough is where we will see a LLC take shape. this recent convection has potential ...

[Fego]

Per NHC.

[Hammy]

Wave axis is showing up on Barbados radar, around 58W, well west of the convection, and there is absolutely no evidence of a closed circulation. This may not form for another 2-3 days, which is about what the Euro showed earlier today.

[SeGaBob]

Wave axis is showing up on Barbados radar, around 58W, well west of the convection, and there is absolutely no evidence of a closed circulation. This may not form for another 2-3 days, which is about what the Euro showed earlier today.

I think It won't be THAT long.