Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[MississippiWx]

Current shear maps do not = a forecast. The GFS has been showing anticyclonic follow developing over this system on approach to Florida as the PV streamer splits with an upper level low backing to the west. The problem seems to be the movement speed is way too fast, and there isn’t enough time to organize after crossing Florida.

[Siker]

Current shear maps do not = a forecast. The GFS has been showing anticyclonic follow developing over this system on approach to Florida as the PV streamer splits with an upper level low backing to the west. The problem seems to be the movement speed is way too fast, and there isn’t enough time to organize after crossing Florida.

For the record, that absurd ICON run I mentioned earlier manages to intensify because the system stalls and moves southwest like the 00z Euro, but much further away from land.

[Aric Dunn]

Current shear maps do not = a forecast. The GFS has been showing anticyclonic follow developing over this system on approach to Florida as the PV streamer splits with an upper level low backing to the west. The problem seems to be the movement speed is way too fast, and there isn’t enough time to organize after crossing Florida.

yeah and we have seen this many times where this type of divergent flow will keep the convention on the NE portion of the wave axis ultimately slowing the forward motion and then slowly something begins to take shape. it is not so cut and dry. there is quite a bit of potential..

[Aric Dunn]

Yep Euro starting to swing back the earlier type runs on this 12z. stronger into NO

[Siker]

Yep Euro starting to swing back the earlier type runs on this 12z. stronger into NO

1010mb TD, but yes it's stronger than recent runs.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[MississippiWx]

Yep Euro starting to swing back the earlier type runs on this 12z. stronger into NO

Yep, Euro with a TD or low end tropical storm coming in around New Orleans. If this slows down a bit, the environment looks to be favorable for development in the Gulf. Potential is there.

[toad strangler]

[MississippiWx]

Yep Euro starting to swing back the earlier type runs on this 12z. stronger into NO

Yep, Euro with a TD or low end tropical storm coming in around New Orleans. If this slows down a bit, the environment looks to be favorable for development in the Gulf. Potential is there.

Another possibility is it scoots further west and gets more time over water.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep Euro starting to swing back the earlier type runs on this 12z. stronger into NO

Yep, Euro with a TD or low end tropical storm coming in around New Orleans. If this slows down a bit, the environment looks to be favorable for development in the Gulf. Potential is there.

Yeah and also if it were to be slower would likely not have made landfall. the ridge builds in just after it comes ashore and bends west and wsw. so if it were slow it would be in a much better environment and over water heading towards texas..

[Siker]

Yep Euro starting to swing back the earlier type runs on this 12z. stronger into NO

Yep, Euro with a TD or low end tropical storm coming in around New Orleans. If this slows down a bit, the environment looks to be favorable for development in the Gulf. Potential is there.

Another possibility is it scoots further west and gets more time over water.

The next frame of the Euro has it over SETX basically due west from its 120 hours position. With a high building in over the central US, this thing isn’t likely to gain much latitude in the mid- to long-range. More south early on = more time over water.

EDIT: Which seems to be what happens on the 00z Euro, though with little intensification.

[stormlover2013]

looks like enviroment gets better if this stays over water watch out!!

[stormlover2013]

JMA slowly coming on board

[Siker]

JMA slowly coming on board

Yes just saw someone mention that, would post images of all of these things but on mobile. Slow moving TS off the Central TX coast.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are basically in agreement that a weak area of low pressure will skirt along the Louisiana and Upper Texas Coast next Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Looks like a rain maker versus a wind event.

[PSUHiker31]

Current shear maps do not = a forecast. The GFS has been showing anticyclonic follow developing over this system on approach to Florida as the PV streamer splits with an upper level low backing to the west. The problem seems to be the movement speed is way too fast, and there isn’t enough time to organize after crossing Florida.

Thank you. I'm tired of people using shear analysis maps to "forecast" what a potential tropical cyclone will run into in 5 days as if it's some static thing that never changes

[Dylan]

Starting to see guidance sniff out development once again. Most likely case is that this stays weak, with heavy rain being the main threat. European depicts tropical storm force gusts for the Mississippi Gulf Coast, along with the coastal eastern Louisiana parishes next Wednesday.

The ICON highlights the possibility of rapid feedback if this finds the "sweet spot". But I wouldn't take it seriously at this point.

[Cpv17]

Current shear maps do not = a forecast. The GFS has been showing anticyclonic follow developing over this system on approach to Florida as the PV streamer splits with an upper level low backing to the west. The problem seems to be the movement speed is way too fast, and there isn’t enough time to organize after crossing Florida.

Thank you. I'm tired of people using shear analysis maps to "forecast" what a potential tropical cyclone will run into in 5 days as if it's some static thing that never changes

Shear can change in a matter of a few hours, much less a few days lol

[MississippiWx]

Anyone have the EPS probability map? Would like to see if the odds have gone back up.

[Cpv17]

Starting to see guidance sniff out development once again. Most likely case is that this stays weak, with heavy rain being the main threat. European depicts tropical storm force gusts for the Mississippi Gulf Coast, along with the coastal eastern Louisiana parishes next Wednesday.

The ICON highlights the possibility of rapid feedback if this finds the "sweet spot". But I wouldn't take it seriously at this point.

I have this developing to a mid to strong tropical storm making landfall somewhere between Baffin Bay & Matagorda Bay. I don’t see it making it that far north like the 12z Euro is saying cuz of the ridge. Ensembles are there to back me up as well. Op runs of the Euro have been on the far northern extent of the ensembles. I think it could get as far north as maybe 50-75 miles south of the Louisiana coast before bending back west or even wsw.