ATL: ETA - Models

[ElectricStorm]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166147708944474/772716252480405504/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_fh120-240.gif

930mb from the Euro! Now that's something you don't see everyday...

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166147708944474/772716252480405504/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_fh120-240.gif

930mb from the Euro! Now that's something you don't see everyday...

one of the lowest reading's i have ever seen it show in this basin.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166147708944474/772716252480405504/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_fh120-240.gif

930mb from the Euro! Now that's something you don't see everyday...

That was the same thought I had... how this re-emerges into the Gulf of Honduras is going to be very interesting.


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[Kingarabian]

Hi-Res 00z Euro has a borderline Cat.5 922mb:

[ColdMiser123]

Lots of strong solutions on the EPS and many threatening Florida after dealing significant impacts to Central America.

[Ryxn]

Hi-Res 00z Euro has a borderline Cat.5 922mb:
https://i.imgur.com/214tJP4.png

That would make Eta the latest Category 5 hurricane on record surpassing the 1932 Cuba hurricane which maintained CAT 5 status until November 9 while this forecast calls for it as at CAT 5 on November 12

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: much stronger than prior run but not much change in track with it going to the EPAC before coming back NE toward Guatamela. This remains a left outlier from an often left biased model.

WTNT82 EGRR 020358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 79.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.11.2020 0 14.9N 79.2W 1001 36
1200UTC 02.11.2020 12 14.5N 81.4W 998 40
0000UTC 03.11.2020 24 13.7N 82.5W 991 42
1200UTC 03.11.2020 36 13.4N 83.2W 977 56
0000UTC 04.11.2020 48 13.2N 84.1W 988 39
1200UTC 04.11.2020 60 12.8N 85.8W 998 33
0000UTC 05.11.2020 72 12.8N 87.4W 999 35
1200UTC 05.11.2020 84 12.8N 89.0W 998 38
0000UTC 06.11.2020 96 12.5N 90.1W 998 37
1200UTC 06.11.2020 108 12.8N 89.3W 1000 33
0000UTC 07.11.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

[SFLcane]

Lots of strong solutions on the EPS and many threatening Florida after dealing significant impacts to Central America.

I think it’s becoming increasingly likely will be dealing with some kind of system in the nw Caribbean Sea late this week. 00z euro after dropping the ball many times this year is a huge eye opener for me atleast wow.

[SFLcane]

Holy EPS!

[SFLcane]

Icon also has a rapidly intensifying storm after leaving CA.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS has a Major into South Florida

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFS just does all kinds of evil things including Wilma II into SF.

[aspen]

Both the GFS and Euro have a powerful, wandering hurricane in the WCar after exiting Central America. I’m shocked at how aggressive the Euro is this run.

[supercane4867]

People are going to panic big time when they wake up and see the euro run this morning lol

[DESTRUCTION5]

Holy EPS!

https://i.postimg.cc/BvgTy11h/AB42-F1-F4-5204-4-CB2-B241-08-EFB18-B1439.jpg

That's what I would call a cluster F$#@.

[NDG]

If models are correct Eta will be one heck of an ACE producer, unusual for this time of the year.

[ronjon]

Wildly diverging time.scales between the fast CMC/HWRF and slow Euro exiting the Gulf of Honduras. Probably the slower solution is more likely given divergent steering this time of year and ETA taking time to reorganize. But who knows?

[aspen]

930 mbar on the Euro for an Atlantic storm

You really don’t see that a whole lot anymore...

[NDG]

Wildly diverging time.scales between the fast CMC/HWRF and slow Euro exiting the Gulf of Honduras. Probably the slower solution is more likely given divergent steering this time of year and ETA taking time to reorganize. But who knows?

As usual I am going with a split difference between the GFS and Euro of it exiting the GOH starting late Friday. The GFS has it exiting it Friday during the day while the Euro during the day Saturday.

[chris46n]

You guys would all laughing if this set up was in the month of June and this is mid of November. Sure something might be brewing but a cat 5. I do not think so. A few storms form in that area this year and nothing like that. Another cold front just past threw in south florida this morning. Anyway its 10 days plus away .







you guys would be laughing