ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

Good chance Key West will be under a mandatory evacuation order by Sunday afternoon. That would cause vacation problems. Might be driving back up to Miami to ride it out until Thursday.

[cycloneye]

For reference, Sierra de los Organos in Western Cuba has the highest peak mountain at 2,024 ft.

[HurricaneBelle]

Because it's likely to come up from the south towards Florida the models right now are primarily entertainment and it's best for anyone anywhere in Florida to prepare for a strike. Storms like Charley and Irma were progged (not just by the models, but by NHC's own forecasts) to make landfall north of where they did and there's no way to really know until only hours before where it's going to landfall (and then it's too late to change your plans).

As Psyclone pointed out, there's only degree of longitude between Cedar Key in the Big Bend and Naples in SW Florida so at that angle of approach anywhere along the FL west coast is in the forecast error range, even at 24 hours so even if all the models (and the NHC) say it's going to a certain point there you won't know exactly where until hours before it actually happens. And that makes all the difference in the world as to storm surge and other effects.

[Sanibel]

I'm going to gas the car while I can and fill 2 spare gas cans...


Euro just put a (not good) scenario hurricane over Sanibel...Fixed broken living room shutter yesterday, was hard work...Upstairs storm shutter is dead...Going to try to borrow ladder and manually roll down so wind doesn't get in and take the roof...Exposed window has steel muntins...


Would recommend fellow Storm2k members in area to start considering level 1 evacuation preparations even if it misses...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[aspen]

Center is well north of the NHC forecast, already at 15N. I don't see this as a Cat 4. Maybe low-end 3. We'll see.

12z HMON has initialized this very well (broad LLC around 15N), and then shows the center consolidating a little further south in the next 12 hours or so, around 13.5-14.0N.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track at 14.6N.

AL, 09, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 707W, 30, 1006, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092022.dat

[ConvergenceZone]

Center is well north of the NHC forecast, already at 15N. I don't see this as a Cat 4. Maybe low-end 3. We'll see.

Yea, I think a Cat 3 is most likely. Don't think it will have enough time to strengthen into a Cat 4, even if the conditions were really good........... but being that a Cat 3 is still a major, it can still be very bad...

[SFLcane]

I am in the Houston area and we plan on a family vacation flight to Key West tomorrow morning for a week.

I have gone through a few storms in Houston over the years with no big issues, but I am a little concerned actually traveling with the family to the Key's tomorrow.

Any suggestions or thoughts for someone never being in that area before especially with a potential storm?

Thanks David
<Only 2nd post but active lurching for a while>

Good chance Key West will be under a mandatory evacuation order by Sunday afternoon. That would cause vacation problems. Might be driving back up to Miami to ride it out until Thursday.

Wxman, The Euro likes your track!

[CrazyC83]

I'm finally catching up - had multiple meetings this morning and wow!

[Kazmit]

Center is well north of the NHC forecast, already at 15N. I don't see this as a Cat 4. Maybe low-end 3. We'll see.

Yea, I think a Cat 3 is most likely. Don't think it will have enough time to strengthen into a Cat 4, even if the conditions were really good........... but being that a Cat 3 is still a major, it can still be very bad...

If it’s a small system like Charley, I think it can.

[psyclone]

It's business as usual at our local Publix. Probably too far out and too many false alarms around here for any pandemonium...yet..

[drewschmaltz]

I'm going to make a prediction. The LLC needs to move SW to align. Land friction with Cuba will end up stacking the storm. As the LLC is held off the coast and the MLC moves towards it.

Keep in mind, I don't know anything. I've just seen the way land seems to tighten up storms a few times.

[wxman57]

Center is well north of the NHC forecast, already at 15N. I don't see this as a Cat 4. Maybe low-end 3. We'll see.

Yea, I think a Cat 3 is most likely. Don't think it will have enough time to strengthen into a Cat 4, even if the conditions were really good........... but being that a Cat 3 is still a major, it can still be very bad...

If it’s a small system like Charley, I think it can.

It will be significantly larger than Charley, more like an average-sized storm.

[SouthernBreeze]

I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?

[SFLcane]

It's business as usual at our local Publix. Probably too far out and too many false alarms around here for any pandemonium...yet..

People in SFL dont even know what is heading this way and most to even prepare anymore.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Based on current satellite, starting to see signs of upper-level outflow associated with TD Nine, to its west, evidenced by cirrus clouds propagating northward. The center is closer to the convection than it was earlier, and there's a consistent burst of convection. Shear is decreasing gradually. Heading WNW at approximately 280 degrees or so. N - 360, E - 90, S - 180, W - 270. 280 is just a little north of west.

[Iceresistance]

ADT is at 35 knots

[Siker]

Based on the 18z Best Track, the box in this image is the current position of the center versus the forecasts from the 12z GEFS for 18z today (not withstanding nuances of the vortex tracking algorithm used to make this plot):

[wxman57]

Consensus shifted to just south of Tampa, but I think it was pulled north by the goofy GFS model. Not buying it.

[pgoss11]

I see Euro end run approaching SC/NC line at 956 that would be Cat 1?

I’m no expert but I’m pretty sure 956mb is a Cat2/3