Texas Fall 2023

[bubba hotep]

[rwfromkansas]

The NAM and HRRR look good for DFW northeast, though the 0z HRRR was better than the 12z but still good.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner about 6am earlier:

Flood Watch in effect until 700pm this evening for: Fort Bend, Brazoria, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties.

Several locations saw more rainfall yesterday than in the last 2-3 months with a swath of 2-4 inches of rainfall from Galveston and Brazoria Counties northward across central Harris into Montgomery County. Plume of tropical moisture remains aimed at the area today with showers and thunderstorms already ongoing from the coast northward mainly west of I-45. High resolution guidance which did a decent job yesterday, shows the most concentrated rainfall today in a south to north band from Brazoria and Matagorda Counties northward across Fort Bend into western Harris and Waller Counties. As noted yesterday, rainfall within this area may average 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts, but this corridor today is a bit further west of where the heaviest rains fell yesterday. Overall grounds are still dry over the area and should be able to handle much of the rainfall with the exception being over any urban areas where intensities may exceed local drainage capabilities.

A break late this afternoon and evening…then it is likely a line of thunderstorms will be quickly approaching the area either early Thursday morning or during the day. Will side with the faster guidance and bring the line into the area Thursday morning, possibly before sunrise as a low level cold pool helps to accelerate things southward. Could be a low end damaging wind threat with this line and again heavy rainfall…but things look to advance fairly quickly toward and off the coast.

Initial weak front will move toward the coast Thursday evening, but much stronger secondary front will arrive across the area on Friday and blast off the coast with gusty northerly winds (especially coast and offshore) and significantly cooler temperatures and low humidity. Guidance has continued to trend cool with temperatures this weekend with widespread lows in the 50’s (upper 40’s up north in the Huntsville to Lake Livingston area) and mid 60’s along the coast. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70’s for all areas. This will be our first real taste of cooler fall weather after a brutal summer of heat.

Next Week:
All eyes next week will be on the eastern Pacific and western MX where a tropical system is expected to develop and potentially get pulled northeast into MX and TX. GFS and CMC are fairly aggressive in this idea with a hurricane landfall along the western MX coast early next week and then track of the upper level energy into coastal Texas by mid week which forms surface low pressure near the TX coast or over the Gulf waters. ECMWF keeps any system far to our south over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Will need to watch closely how tropical developments occur over the eastern Pacific this weekend as our forecast for the middle of next week will be strongly dependent on how far north and strong any tropical system is.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[bubba hotep]

Latest HRRR really going to town for N & NE Texas

[jasons2k]

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... South Central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 1205 PM CDT, local fire department reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Fire Department reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Southeastern Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Surfside Beach, Richwood, Jones Creek and Oyster Creek.

This includes the following Low Water Crossings... State Highway 36 at the Brazos River .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Batiste

[bubba hotep]

ENH expanded SE to include some of the NW portions of DFW

[dpep4]

And the 2% tornado risk includes all of DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Three watches out currently for Texas and this latest one covers the northern portion of DFW

[jasons2k]

Three watches out currently for Texas and this latest one covers the northern portion of DFW

I’ve been so focused on the streamer bands from the Gulf, I forgot we have a front on the way.

[Ntxw]

The heat won't go quietly. Peaking near mid 90s up here which for October is pretty up there. This has been one of the most resilient heat years, well sustained and stubborn.

[HockeyTx82]

The heat won't go quietly. Peaking near mid 90s up here which for October is pretty up there. This has been one of the most resilient heat years, well sustained and stubborn.

At least it will feel like Fall when watching the Rangers in the ALDS on Saturday

[Ntxw]

The heat won't go quietly. Peaking near mid 90s up here which for October is pretty up there. This has been one of the most resilient heat years, well sustained and stubborn.

At least it will feel like Fall when watching the Rangers in the ALDS on Saturday

Love it. Texas/OU weekend too, great Fair weather!

[IcyTundra]

Well the Dew Point got up to 80 here today can't get much worse than that in October.

[Gotwood]

Latest HRRR really going to town for N & NE Texas

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023100414/018/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

So far this hasn’t verified very well. Oklahoma is getting hammered already 3 Inches in spots.

[bubba hotep]

Latest HRRR really going to town for N & NE Texas

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023100414/018/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

So far this hasn’t verified very well. Oklahoma is getting hammered already 3 Inches in spots.

We'll have to wait and see but the HRRR, including that run, has kept most of the rain up along or north of the Red River through 23z. It has verified pretty well so far.

[Ntxw]

The line has begun to consolidate. It will expand as it approaches the I-20 corridor after 9pm ish tonight and through morning. Will cross the rest of the state tomorrow and clear the coast.

Dews in the 70s east of I-35 which supports efficient rainfall rates. Some may overperform.

[Iceresistance]

The heat won't go quietly. Peaking near mid 90s up here which for October is pretty up there. This has been one of the most resilient heat years, well sustained and stubborn.

I don't want to imagine what if this year was a La Nina year, likely having the heat into December or January!

[aggiecutter]

The Texarkana area received 6-8 inches rain today. That makes over 10" of rain the past 10 days, as the area received 3-5 inches of rain last weekend. El Nino flexing his muscles.

[TropicalTundra]

El Nino sure making an entrance for y'all up north, pretty sick

Can't wait to start front tracking either tonight or soon. It's almost literally a tradition on this forum.

[Ntxw]

El Nino sure making an entrance for y'all up north, pretty sick

Can't wait to start front tracking either tonight or soon. It's almost literally a tradition on this forum.

Friday will be the day, mostly Fri evening to night. Cool season HP dome will settle into the southern plains with height rises forcing an appreciable cold front. Will feel the northerly breeze when it crosses. Highs in the 60s and some lows in the 40s.



Currently it is rain cooled air, and then drier air to follow.