Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Stormcenter]

I believe I may have found something. Pull up the KMLB radar site (Melbourne) and look at Base Velocity 1, and animate it. Now look very closely off the east coast of Florida half way between Titusville and Daytona...appx 45 miles offshore. A low level circulation is evident.

For those using GR3, this should be pretty east to see.

There does seem to be some sort of twist developing in the cloud pattern of convection off the east of FL. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[serenityjp]

Would like to know what Tony thinks of it. That's close to me.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I believe I may have found something. Pull up the KMLB radar site (Melbourne) and look at Base Velocity 1, and animate it. Now look very closely off the east coast of Florida half way between Titusville and Daytona...appx 45 miles offshore. A low level circulation is evident.

For those using GR3, this should be pretty east to see.

Skysummit what do those bright colors indicate in terms of wind speed?
I think it indicates 25-40 knots If it has the same color code as the velocity
radar, but I may be wrong.
I do see a definite spin with the green v. red colors on each side.

[jasons2k]

I believe I may have found something. Pull up the KMLB radar site (Melbourne) and look at Base Velocity 1, and animate it. Now look very closely off the east coast of Florida half way between Titusville and Daytona...appx 45 miles offshore. A low level circulation is evident.

For those using GR3, this should be pretty east to see.

Yep, using a beam calculator, 60nm @ .50 = 5790ft.

[skysummit]

Skysummit what do those bright colors indicate in terms of wind speed?
I think it indicates 25-40 knots If it has the same color code as the velocity
radar, but I may be wrong.
I do see a definite spin with the green v. red colors on each side.

The winds speeds really aren't that accurate when looking at velocity at this range. The winds are relatively pretty weak it looks like. All I'm concentrating on is the apparent developing spin that is evident on velocity, and is becoming more evident on reflectivity. This is kind of what Humberto looked like on radar while it was in invest....for comparison purposes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks skysummit-
This bears close watching.

I think it will be windy along florida's, georgia's,
and carolina's east coast.

[Ivanhater]

[Steve]

>>This is kind of what Humberto looked like on radar while it was in invest....for comparison purposes.

Should be a cool week for tropical watching whether or not anything spins up or whatever the components end up being. This could be the mid/upper low progged to E-W it across the northern Gulf or might be part of the brew.

Steve

[cycloneye]

12z CMC Animation

The Canadian model at 12z shows strong formation off Floridas east coast and moves inland to the panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

12z CMC Animation

The Canadian model at 12z shows strong formation off Floridas east coast and moves inland to the panhandle.

Wow, sure does, starts to push it down through Louisiana at the end was well...interesting scenario

[skysummit]

12z CMC Animation

The Canadian model at 12z shows strong formation off Floridas east coast and moves inland to the panhandle.

What's odd though....it doesn't develop the area currently off the east coast of Florida. It pulls some energy north from the Caribbean and begins development off the southeastern coast of Florida.

[skysummit]

The 12z Canadian is backing up your thoughts on Bahamas/Southeastern Florida development.

[Ivanhater]

12z CMC Animation

The Canadian model at 12z shows strong formation off Floridas east coast and moves inland to the panhandle.

What's odd though....it doesn't develop the area currently off the east coast of Florida. It pulls some energy north from the Caribbean and begins development off the southeastern coast of Florida.

Ya, the first area we were looking at for development...comes across cuba

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC yikes....

Yesterday's GFS had the L in New Orleans.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[Ivanhater]

CMC yikes....

Yesterday's GFS had the L in New Orleans.

Coming from the north...not making a landfall there

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So this area gets pushed south and then recombines with
bahamas wave??

[LaBreeze]

and then are all bets off if it makes it into the GOM?

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro..around Houma, southeast Louisiana...

[jeff]

Model guidance still suggest tropical cyclone/surface low formation over the Gulf of Mexico with the CMC being very aggressive bringing a strong cyclone toward the NW Gulf. Spread in the guidance about the location of development has lessen in the last 12 hours with the majority of the guidance suggesting the surface low forms either over the Bahamas/FL/ or the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Upper trough currently over the SE US will fracture and drop SSW with time allowing 250mb upper low to cut off and form near FL or just W of FL in the next 24-48 hours. Upper high builds across the SE US retrograding the upper low western into the Gulf of Mexico. Guidance including the CMC, GFS, NAM suggest surface low pressure develops either over the SE Bahamas, SW FL, or along the Fl east coast and tracks W to WSW behind the 250mb upper TUTT low. Given current satellite images I am hard pressed to find the feature the models are picking up on to develop: there is the remains of Ingrid…but they are too far east to be the system, there is also a stalled frontal boundary with a 1015mb low located along the E FL coast between Jacksonville and West Palm Beach…this could be the area of potential breeding ground.

Given the upper air pattern forecast late this week and this weekend show strong support for a track toward the west and this is supported by all model guidance at this time placing varying degrees of intensity of a surface low off the TX coast this weekend. Upper air ridging looks to weaken with time late this weekend and CMC appears to be picking up on this with a slowing system in the western Gulf.

Cannot ignore the nearly unanimous model agreement that something will form in the E Gulf at some point in the next 4-7 days so a close watch is needed.

Update:

Incoming 12Z data still support low formation near FL with various tracks to the west based on low formation location.