February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[CrazyC83]

2 more deaths found in Trousdale County, TN - it appears that is separate from the count. That raises the possible death toll to 49.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OHXLSROHX

[CrazyC83]

Daughter (grad student) in Jackson, TN. is okay. EMT's got her while storms were still present. She is a bit shaken up, but physically no probs. She saw it all happen. She has only one comment....she wonders why the bad weather keeps following her? She went through Katrina and now this. They are still searching for the missing.

Thank God she is OK!

[CrazyC83]

Make that 51 deaths - two more found in Moulton, AL.

[CrazyC83]

52 now since one was just confirmed in Rosalie from a tornado about 2 hours ago.

[simplykristi]

Daughter (grad student) in Jackson, TN. is okay. EMT's got her while storms were still present. She is a bit shaken up, but physically no probs. She saw it all happen. She has only one comment....she wonders why the bad weather keeps following her? She went through Katrina and now this. They are still searching for the missing.

Glad your daughter is OK physically. I am sure the images of last night will be with her for quite awhile.

Kristi

[simplykristi]

Very sad to see the death toll rising.

Mountain View AR was hit hard. There was one death in Mountain View. I've been thru there. I have relatives that live about 10 or 11 miles south of Mountain View.

Kristi

[CrazyC83]

If it rises above 76, it would be the deadliest outbreak since the Super Outbreak.

[dizzyfish]

Daughter (grad student) in Jackson, TN. is okay. EMT's got her while storms were still present. She is a bit shaken up, but physically no probs. She saw it all happen. She has only one comment....she wonders why the bad weather keeps following her? She went through Katrina and now this. They are still searching for the missing.

I can't even imagine that!

Glad to hear she wasn't hurt. I will pray for God to give her the strength to overcome the mental anguish.

[CrazyC83]

About 40 minutes to the next SPC update - MDT perhaps?

[CrazyC83]

The way this year has shaped up so far, you have to wonder if Super Outbreak II is going to happen this spring?

[RL3AO]

24 F4s and 6 F5s. It is hard to comprehend that.

[simplykristi]

24 F4s and 6 F5s. It is hard to comprehend that.

Where did you get that info?

Kristi

[Brent]

24 F4s and 6 F5s. It is hard to comprehend that.

Where did you get THAT? Seems a bit extreme to me.

[RL3AO]

24 F4s and 6 F5s. It is hard to comprehend that.

Where did you get THAT? Seems a bit extreme to me.

That was the Super Outbreak in 1974. Crazy mentioned if we could get Super Outbreak II this spring.

[CrazyC83]

24 F4s and 6 F5s. It is hard to comprehend that.

Where did you get THAT? Seems a bit extreme to me.

That was the Super Outbreak in 1974. Crazy mentioned if we could get Super Outbreak II this spring.

I don't see any EF5-worthy damage from this outbreak based on what I have seen, as tragic as it is. I'd expect a bunch of EF2's and EF3's from the killers, maybe an EF4 or two.

The most likely EF4 IMO is the one in Sumner County, TN with the destroyed gas plant, and possibly the Jackson, TN tornado.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...CNTRL/SRN GA...FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...

VALID 061620Z - 061745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 48 CONTINUES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT LATE MORNING SHOWS THE PRIMARY UPR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. WELL AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXISTS ACROSS WRN GA AND SERN
AL. WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN...BUT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT TLH/FFC EXHIBITED A STOUT CAP.

GIVEN THAT THE UPR SYSTEM WILL ONLY SKIRT THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT INHIBITION WILL COMPLETELY BE
ERASED. STRONGEST WARMING/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIKELY
EXIST IN A SMALL AREA FROM THE FL PNHDL INTO SCNTRL GA THROUGH THE
AFTN. RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER TSTMS
ACROSS THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE...MAGNITUDE OF THE CAP AND RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING WILL LIKELY BE HOSTILE TO SUSTAIN SVR CONVECTION.

WHERE SUSTAINED STORMS OCCUR...THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT VEERING OF THE LOW AND MID-LVL FLOW
SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL BE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL GA AND THE FL PNHDL WHERE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE
WILL EXIST.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 02/06/2008


ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

30658629 32708551 33768448 33288280 31588279 30258409
29758557

[Bunkertor]

German news is funny: " Some Houses damaged, some trees snapped".

[CrazyC83]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jW-B ... QD8UKT95O0

AP now reporting 48 dead (although compiling all sources gets a death toll of 52).

[Weatherfreak14]

Still Slight Risk: Shoot most of it looks it will be weakened before reaching my area. As usual.


SPC AC 061628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE NE GULF COAST TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC...

...OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY
EARLY TONIGHT...
AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD FROM SRN INDIANA ACROSS SRN OH INTO PA ALONG A PRE-EXISTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS S OF THE CYCLONE.

A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD E OF THE APPALACHIANS. THOUGH SURFACE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ARE UNUSUALLY
WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST FOR EARLY FEB...REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
STORM FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER W NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION.

VERY STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING MID
LEVEL TROUGH...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG WITH VERY LONG
HODOGRAPHS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A NARROW BAND
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IMMEDIATELY S OF THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SMALL SCALE BOWS IN
THE LINE...AND THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITHIN OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES E OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.

...NE GULF COAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
A BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS IS PROGRESSING EWD FROM AL INTO
W GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD E OF THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS THE
SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES WELL N OF THIS AREA. THUS...THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT BY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (11:37AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Threat decreased some for today as well. Tornado threat dropped from 10-hatched to 5%, probably due to significant weakening over the Appalachians, although that does not really matter as it could easily redevelop.

I would have kept the tornado threat at 10% but undid the hatching personally.