ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

Well at least she is gaining more convection nearer the center and the convection well to her south is waining. With that she could be slowly strengthening but she is right at the western edge of that convection with nothing on her western periphery.

Also, I see more of a WEST movement on the Ramsdis Floater and the GFS 12z run maybe onto something here.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed Derek, I'd say 35kts is quite possibly more likely, maybe 40kts in the convection just to the north of the center as its fairly deep.

Of course will a weaker system also go further west as well?

[deltadog03]

Actually...She is getting sheared...I can see the LLC chugging a little bit west right now..maybe like 275....If, the shear dosn't relax soon...she is not going to strengthen

Where is the shear coming from, is it the ULL and is it forecast to relax soon?

The ULL...yes...This might be what the 12z gfs was thinking/showing with a further west track on cuba...

[GreenSky]

Actually...She is getting sheared...I can see the LLC chugging a little bit west right now..maybe like 275....If, the shear dosn't relax soon...she is not going to strengthen

What is causing the shear?
And when will it stop?
Lastly, when will the anticyclone (now north of the Great Antilles) position itself in a way that allows rapid intensification of Fay.

Hey, if models backtracked 180 degrees in intensity once, whose to say they won't again?!
Intensity forecast is about as predictable as estimating the position of a rainbow!

[gatorcane]

she does appear to be taking a bit of a W Jog at the moment....maybe a wobble though:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I estimate about 10-15K WSW shear encroaching on Fay --- not going to strengthen fast with this setup.

Good news.... so far. The Upper-Level low is keeping her in check for the time being.

[funster]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

[wxman57]

not intensifying at all this afternoon

still barely has a closed surface circulation on high res visible imagery. Likely is not 45KT at the present time

Yep, agreed. Not going to be a 65 mph storm when it hits Cuba, more like barely 40 mph (being generous). Certainly won't be at 65 mph when it exits Cuba tomorrow. I think NHC intensity forecasts are way too high. Fay just can't get its act together.

[ekal]

Some convection, but ragged and displaced from the LLC.

[KWT]

Yep looks like its shifted back onto a slightly more westerly motion again over the last 4hrs or so, I'd guess 275, maybe 280 in terms of motion, a weaker system would likely allow Fay to go further west it seems.

also indeed shear is hitting this fairly well right now. By the way why were the models so out when it came to the shear forecast just 48hrs ago?

[gatorcane]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

Hi funster no it is not strengthening or organizing (see pro met and my posts above).

[deltadog03]

not intensifying at all this afternoon

still barely has a closed surface circulation on high res visible imagery. Likely is not 45KT at the present time

Yep, agreed. Not going to be a 65 mph storm when it hits Cuba, more like barely 40 mph (being generous). Certainly won't be at 65 mph when it exits Cuba tomorrow. I think NHC intensity forecasts are way too high. Fay just can't get its act together.

WXMAN, what do you think about the GFS (12z) Any possibility of that?

[coreyl]

Ok pro mets, is she moving West or WNW?

[GreenSky]

not intensifying at all this afternoon

still barely has a closed surface circulation on high res visible imagery. Likely is not 45KT at the present time

Yep, agreed. Not going to be a 65 mph storm when it hits Cuba, more like barely 40 mph (being generous). Certainly won't be at 65 mph when it exits Cuba tomorrow. I think NHC intensity forecasts are way too high. Fay just can't get its act together.

So in other words, let's call her off!

If we get lucky, we can start posting "It's dead Jim!"

[deltadog03]

Very short term...3 Hours about 275...

[funster]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

Hi funster no it is not strengthening or organizing (see pro met and my posts above).

I don't agree with those naysayer posts. Big blow-ups near the center are a sure sign of strengthening. There have been many half-a-hurricane systems before.

[Jason_B]

She definitely looks like she wants to stay offshore and skim the coast, which could lead to her going over much flatter land in Cuba and maybe more time over water once in the Gulf.

[Shockwave]

After getting back home, I thought I'd see an impressive storm but she looks rough at the moment. We despertely need the rain here in Middle TN and if she keeps that westward motion going, I hope it affect us.

[gatorcane]

Very short term...3 Hours about 275...

Yes I agree with that.

For storm enthusiasts out there - the one advantage for Fay is that she is moving more west and will keep her over water longer on this track.

But since she can't develop an inner core I guess it offsets the several disadvantages she is experiencing at the moment such as dry air intrusion and some shear from the ULL.

Maybe a downgrade to a depression at the rate we are going which is great news for Florida.

[KWT]

Not really greensky, shear is hitting it now but that does not mean shear will stay with Fay the whole way through, equally it may do but its hard to say rightr now, its going over explosive SST's which may help to keep the winds up thanks to the strong convection but keep the convection mainly displaced.

This will have a very tough time over Cuba IMO if shear remains like it is however.

[chris_fit]

not intensifying at all this afternoon

still barely has a closed surface circulation on high res visible imagery. Likely is not 45KT at the present time

I think think for the first time I'm going to politely disagree.

I believe the "looks can be deceiving" can go both ways (back when it was 92L (looks wonderful, but nothing on the inside); and now, in the opposite way.

The LLC is currently more defined than it has been in a very long time, if ever. I agree that it is exposed to its west, but I believe that is changing. Check out the last few frames of the 1km vis.... You can see convection popping N and now NNW of the LLC and trying to wrap around (band of new cold cloud tops). You have convection on the SE of the LLC wrapping around. Look at the low level inflow, its looking the best I have seen with this system. Lastly, look at the radar and compare it to this morning's, a million times better.

While the winds may not be higher just yet, let it reorganize for a few hours, I think we might be surprised.... As long as it stays over water. It'll only be a matter time before Fay is back in business.