ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

yah thunder is booming right now.

[Just Joshing You]

Pinhole eye forming? Don't shoot me if I'm just speaking out my ass.. my contacts are out and I can't see much on IR other than a little pin prick hole.

[funster]

Seems the eye is tiny and round now. Not flat like before. Could be ready to get stronger yet again. Sometimes the powerful hurricanes have tiny little eyes.

[funster]

Pinhole eye forming? Don't shoot me if I'm just speaking out my ass.. my contacts are out and I can't see much on IR other than a little pin prick hole.

Seems we had the same thought at the same time.

[wxmann_91]

No pinhole eye. The warm spot is actually a dry slot, the center is a little to the south of it.

[Just Joshing You]

No pinhole eye. The warm spot is actually a dry slot, the center is a little to the south of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[txag2005]

Can anyone explain why these latest runs show southern turns around landfall? What does that mean for SE Texas (Houston/Galveston especially)?

[cpdaman]

tops seem stretched a good deal south to north on the latest frame 615 indicative of increased SSW shear a bit to the north, i don't see RI just steady I

[WindRunner]

Yeah, it's showing up on both night vis and IR...the center is actually slightly covered by cold cloud tops from the convective burst in the NW quad right now, and once you have some more post-eclipse images to loop, you should either be able to see the rotation's center more clearly or else the cold tops will blow off and the eye proper will come out.

EDIT: in reference to the pinhole eye comment...

[wxmann_91]

No pinhole eye. The warm spot is actually a dry slot, the center is a little to the south of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

I'd consider my high resolution, rapid-scan IR images from GHCC much more accurate than SSD nighttime visible.

[funster]

Can anyone explain why these latest runs show southern turns around landfall? What does that mean for SE Texas (Houston/Galveston especially)?

Can't explain that weirdness

[Stratosphere747]

[LAwxrgal]

Can anyone explain why these latest runs show southern turns around landfall? What does that mean for SE Texas (Houston/Galveston especially)?

The southern turns, if I'm not mistaken, are in response to a building ridge of high pressure. At least that's the way I've heard and read it explained. Maybe a pro met can chime in and/or correct me if I'm necessary?

[ROCK]

Can anyone explain why these latest runs show southern turns around landfall? What does that mean for SE Texas (Houston/Galveston especially)?

whats its showing is the high building and pushing Gus southwest....it all about timing....

[wxmann_91]

elaborating on my earlier point about dry air...

btangy's earlier post of a Grand Cayman sounding concurs with PWAT analysis:



Note that the PWAT values over Gustav are actually lower than in Hanna and the "code yellow" disturbance over the open Atlantic, and much lower than the EPAC monsoonal trough. The dynamic environment may be favorable for RI, but the thermodynamic environment sure is not... these two may counter each other and Gustav will probably strengthen at a more gradual rate until Cuba.

[txag2005]

So what is the longer term implication if this high pressure ridge continues to work its way down? Does that put Houston in more danger, or would the storm maybe go way south to the Northern Mexico area?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As far as I'm concerned the chances for this to become a cat5 are about zero for the next 48 hours. There maybe a short time if it passes over the loop, but I highly don't think this will be stronger then 120 knots. The shear over the northern gulf should keep it from being more then 90-95 for landfall, also I believe that Cuba should slow it down some. Remember this storm loves to slow down over land like Fay. I expect 105 knot landfall over Cuba late tonight into Saturday. I also expect landfall about 40 miles west of New orleans.

This is unoffical from a hurricane nut, please go to the nhc for offical information if you value your lifes. Thank you!!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

aren't those 2am runs with the Gulfstream data?

[Nederlander]

So what is the longer term implication if this high pressure ridge continues to work its way down? Does that put Houston in more danger, or would the storm maybe go way south to the Northern Mexico area?

Ag= as its been said by others, its all about timing.. worst case scenario IMO would be stalling off the coast, allowing an enormous surge... but if that recurve south happens, i dont see it going as far south as n.mexico.. if it does recurve south, I suspect it will stall out and then make a second landfall... way too early to tell... but I dont think it will recurve before making landfall...

THANKS! AND GIG EM

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[evalea]

I have a question about the actual winds experienced. How does being situated in town versus being in an open field say, affect winds experienced? I live in a 1970's wood house, no brick, but its pretty sturdy, brand new metal roof, low pitch and I'm in town with no tall trees in falling distance of the house. I'm also well out of any flood zones and the storm surge prediction map I've seen has a worst case scenario of a 22ft surge up the Vermillion Bay (I'll try and share the map) any flooding is still a good couple of miles away from our house. We are in Youngsville on the south west of Lafayette Parish, and 18 miles from the coast as the crow flies.

I'm planning on staying, but never having experienced anything like sustained 100mph winds, (I'm an import from the UK ) I'm wondering how much damage that can do to a sturdy structure, or even if you'd get that kind of damage in a town and being so far inland too, with essentially lots of wind breaks around you. (Although unfortunately a couple of those are trailers! Wish I had brick houses around me!)

I just think it would be way more hassle to leave than to stay. At least at home I have plenty of supplies and things to do. The worst thing is that I'll be on my own as my husband is on duty working for a helicopter company and he has to be evacuated with the aircraft. I know I can handle whatever, but the fear of the unknown and dealing with it on my own is a bit daunting. So I'm looking for some good nuggets of info.

Here goes an attempt to share said surge map