Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

12z GFS deterministic run definitely coming around to a colder/wetter picture for next weekend in Texas. Shows a decent winter storm for portions of the Panhandle/South Plains/North Texas.

[TheProfessor]

12z GFS deterministic run definitely coming around to a colder/wetter picture for next weekend in Texas. Shows a decent winter storm for portions of the Panhandle/South Plains/North Texas.

It also now has about inch of snow for North Texas. I don't think that it had that for the last few runs. I can't wait for the 12z Euro!

[BigB0882]

Let's expand that swath a little more to the right and I'm totally good with that forecast! This is just crazy that there's even hint at our 3rd winter weather event in just 2 weeks only 6 days away. One thing I do notice is temps look very marginal in the southern areas of snow on the Euro but maybe that is for the better. The last "real" and significant snow around here was December 2008 when temps hovered at 32-33 for the entire event. I was getting sleet mixed with freezing rain at 25 degrees on Tuesday...that's just insane!

THINK SNOW

Im don't believe it PT. Remember for our last storm the euro was last to come around with winter weather, then once it did it continued showing us getting 2-4" of snow run after run. I bet this ends up like all of our December storms where all we get is a cold rain.

We aren't seriously in contention for this event, are we? I thought it was a TX event, for sure. I would love a good snow but NO MORE SLEET. I would prefer a cold rain, at this point. Is there really any model even hinting at this storm making itself known in SW to SELA?

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS goes crazy with the winter storm late next week, even more insane than the Euro a few runs back for Northwest 1/2 of Texas. Textbook synoptic winter storm setup across southern Plains


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

We aren't seriously in contention for this event, are we? I thought it was a TX event, for sure. I would love a good snow but NO MORE SLEET. I would prefer a cold rain, at this point. Is there really any model even hinting at this storm making itself known in SW to SELA?

Nothing to indicate a threat to SE LA yet.

[dhweather]

This has ice storm written all over it.

Good thing it will change 6-9 times in the next 4-5 days.

[Stormcenter]

Graphics please.....thanks!!!!

:double: 12Z GFS goes crazy with the winter storm late next week, even more insane than the Euro a few runs back for Northwest 1/2 of Texas. Textbook synoptic winter storm setup across southern Plains


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[BigB0882]

We aren't seriously in contention for this event, are we? I thought it was a TX event, for sure. I would love a good snow but NO MORE SLEET. I would prefer a cold rain, at this point. Is there really any model even hinting at this storm making itself known in SW to SELA?

Nothing to indicate a threat to SE LA yet.

Good. You guys can have it!

[Stormcenter]

Thank you!

We aren't seriously in contention for this event, are we? I thought it was a TX event, for sure. I would love a good snow but NO MORE SLEET. I would prefer a cold rain, at this point. Is there really any model even hinting at this storm making itself known in SW to SELA?

Nothing to indicate a threat to SE LA yet.

[Tireman4]

We aren't seriously in contention for this event, are we? I thought it was a TX event, for sure. I would love a good snow but NO MORE SLEET. I would prefer a cold rain, at this point. Is there really any model even hinting at this storm making itself known in SW to SELA?

Nothing to indicate a threat to SE LA yet.

Good. You guys can have it!

What did we ever do to you? LOL

[PTrackerLA]

Let's expand that swath a little more to the right and I'm totally good with that forecast! This is just crazy that there's even hint at our 3rd winter weather event in just 2 weeks only 6 days away. One thing I do notice is temps look very marginal in the southern areas of snow on the Euro but maybe that is for the better. The last "real" and significant snow around here was December 2008 when temps hovered at 32-33 for the entire event. I was getting sleet mixed with freezing rain at 25 degrees on Tuesday...that's just insane!

THINK SNOW

Im don't believe it PT. Remember for our last storm the euro was last to come around with winter weather, then once it did it continued showing us getting 2-4" of snow run after run. I bet this ends up like all of our December storms where all we get is a cold rain.

Oh I'm not buying it either as far as snowfall. I've been burned twice in a week by GFS/EURO/NAM snowfall maps. Anytime I see that from now on I'll just assume it means a chance of our famous freezing rain and sleet mix .

[dhweather]

Red Stick looks fine.

[orangeblood]

Graphics please.....thanks!!!!

:double: 12Z GFS goes crazy with the winter storm late next week, even more insane than the Euro a few runs back for Northwest 1/2 of Texas. Textbook synoptic winter storm setup across southern Plains


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

48 hour precip totals for southern Plains ending Saturday morning...note that freezing temps are forecast for the entire duration of event from roughly San Angelo to Waco over to Texarkana. And yes, to your point dhweather, thickness values in the heaviest precip area are showing freezing rain/sleet

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a band of 8-10" snow from Midland to the Red River and into southern OK next Friday. In the Dallas-Ft. Worth area it has 4-6" with that storm. I fully expect major changes in subsequent runs. Since Bastardi just tweeted the image (it's public) I can post it here:

[TheProfessor]

This has ice storm written all over it.

Good thing it will change 6-9 times in the next 4-5 days.

http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/4339/ssne.png

That looks worse than Icemageddon 2013! I hope that changes to snow! If not, it might be icemageddon x10.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS has a band of 8-10" snow from Midland to the Red River and into southern OK next Friday. In the Dallas-Ft. Worth area it has 4-6" with that storm. I fully expect major changes in subsequent runs. Since Bastardi just tweeted the image (it's public) I can post it here:

"Major" changes in the synoptic setup or the surface details ? Please explain because outside of some timing differences, the upper pattern appears to be coming together on the Euro/GFS

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has a band of 8-10" snow from Midland to the Red River and into southern OK next Friday. In the Dallas-Ft. Worth area it has 4-6" with that storm. I fully expect major changes in subsequent runs. Since Bastardi just tweeted the image (it's public) I can post it here:

"Major" changes in the synoptic setup or the surface details ? Please explain because outside of some timing differences, the upper pattern appears to be coming together on the Euro/GFS

Major changes in the location of and timing of any winter precip across Texas. The band of heavier snow may change by hundreds of miles by next week. GFS is trending closer to the Euro but it doesn't likely have the right solution yet.

[TheProfessor]

Are the models trending warmer for Tuesday? NWS FWD has my point forecast temperature at 50 degrees?!

[Tireman4]

Wxman57:

Major changes in the location of and timing of any winter precip across Texas. The band of heavier snow may change by hundreds of miles by next week. GFS is trending closer to the Euro but it doesn't likely have the right solution yet.[/quote]


Wednesday 12Z models will zero in completely for you?

[ndale]

12Z GFS has a band of 8-10" snow from Midland to the Red River and into southern OK next Friday. In the Dallas-Ft. Worth area it has 4-6" with that storm. I fully expect major changes in subsequent runs. Since Bastardi just tweeted the image (it's public) I can post it here:

"Major" changes in the synoptic setup or the surface details ? Please explain because outside of some timing differences, the upper pattern appears to be coming together on the Euro/GFS

Major changes in the location of and timing of any winter precip across Texas. The band of heavier snow may change by hundreds of miles by next week. GFS is trending closer to the Euro but it doesn't likely have the right solution yet.

Hundreds of miles which way?