ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Harry Cane]

Cuban Radar (Island of Youth Punta del'Este) shows a well defined eye (3:14 AM)

[wxmann_91]

As far as I'm concerned the chances for this to become a cat5 are about zero for the next 48 hours. There maybe a short time if it passes over the loop, but I highly don't think this will be stronger then 120 knots. The shear over the northern gulf should keep it from being more then 90-95 for landfall, also I believe that Cuba should slow it down some. Remember this storm loves to slow down over land like Fay. I expect 105 knot landfall over Cuba late tonight into Saturday. I also expect landfall about 40 miles west of New orleans.

This is unoffical from a hurricane nut, please go to the nhc for offical information if you value your lifes. Thank you!!!

Yeah, that's true. I wouldn't be surprised to see a stall over Cuba.
/sarcasm

I can't wait to track some fish storms that actually try to not hit land, screw themselves, and screw the people that live on it.

[Pebbles]

I have a question about the actual winds experienced. How does being situated in town versus being in an open field say, affect winds experienced? I live in a 1970's wood house, no brick, but its pretty sturdy, brand new metal roof, low pitch and I'm in town with no tall trees in falling distance of the house. I'm also well out of any flood zones and the storm surge prediction map I've seen has a worst case scenario of a 22ft surge up the Vermillion Bay (I'll try and share the map) any flooding is still a good couple of miles away from our house. We are in Youngsville on the south west of Lafayette Parish, and 18 miles from the coast as the crow flies.

I'm planning on staying, but never having experienced anything like sustained 100mph winds, (I'm an import from the UK ) I'm wondering how much damage that can do to a sturdy structure, or even if you'd get that kind of damage in a town and being so far inland too, with essentially lots of wind breaks around you. (Although unfortunately a couple of those are trailers! Wish I had brick houses around me!)

I just think it would be way more hassle to leave than to stay. At least at home I have plenty of supplies and things to do. The worst thing is that I'll be on my own as my husband is on duty working for a helicopter company and he has to be evacuated with the aircraft. I know I can handle whatever, but the fear of the unknown and dealing with it on my own is a bit daunting. So I'm looking for some good nuggets of info.

Here goes an attempt to share said surge map

Is there any friends/family nearby who's house you could stay in. Or possibly stay at a local shelter just for the duration of the actual storm? Then when the storm is over can get back home quick. I know it's a little aggrovating but least you'll be in a more substantion building. And it's not quite the insane drive of a complete evacuation... specially if they are not calling for one in your current location. Unfortunately it's not only tree debris you have to worry about, but neighbors belongings getting flung about or gosh forbid someones roof or trailer.

I'm not quite sure why people hate the thought of staying at their local red cross shelters so much. It's not charity and this is exactly what they are for. Some of the schools aren't that bad.. and a set of cheepo headphones, a couple books, and deck of cards can keep one quite occupied. If your into handcrafts (knitting, crochet, or cross stitch) that's a bonus to keep you occupied.

Personally I liked teaching any kids (if you like kids) around how to play crazy 8's and other card games.

[weatherman0518]

i know someone else has already asked this but has the GulfStream Data been entered into the 2am models or will that be entered into the models for the next run?

[TexasSam]

I have a question about the actual winds experienced. How does being situated in town versus being in an open field say, affect winds experienced? I live in a 1970's wood house, no brick, but its pretty sturdy, brand new metal roof, low pitch and I'm in town with no tall trees in falling distance of the house. I'm also well out of any flood zones and the storm surge prediction map I've seen has a worst case scenario of a 22ft surge up the Vermillion Bay (I'll try and share the map) any flooding is still a good couple of miles away from our house. We are in Youngsville on the south west of Lafayette Parish, and 18 miles from the coast as the crow flies.

I'm planning on staying, but never having experienced anything like sustained 100mph winds, (I'm an import from the UK ) I'm wondering how much damage that can do to a sturdy structure, or even if you'd get that kind of damage in a town and being so far inland too, with essentially lots of wind breaks around you. (Although unfortunately a couple of those are trailers! Wish I had brick houses around me!)

I just think it would be way more hassle to leave than to stay. At least at home I have plenty of supplies and things to do. The worst thing is that I'll be on my own as my husband is on duty working for a helicopter company and he has to be evacuated with the aircraft. I know I can handle whatever, but the fear of the unknown and dealing with it on my own is a bit daunting. So I'm looking for some good nuggets of info.

Here goes an attempt to share said surge map

In all truth we here can't tell you what to do. You need to pay close attention to what the locals tell and or ask you to do. remember if you do stay, and the storm isn't real bad near your house, you may go a week without electricity... no fun if you didn't pack your fridge with ice. you can't sit outside the bugs will eat you, and it's to hot inside. After Rita it was over 100 for 5 days!

[Viper54r]

i know someone else has already asked this but has the GulfStream Data been entered into the 2am models or will that be entered into the models for the next run?

I was reading the data would be in for the 06Z runs

[weatherman0518]

i know someone else has already asked this but has the GulfStream Data been entered into the 2am models or will that be entered into the models for the next run?

I was reading the data would be in for the 06Z runs

Thanks, so that would be the next set of runs....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Reds wraping around. Maybe in a few hours we could have a full eye with red convection the way around. I predict 964 millibars for bottom for this run through. 107 knots for northeast quad when it goes through it.

[Viper54r]

i know someone else has already asked this but has the GulfStream Data been entered into the 2am models or will that be entered into the models for the next run?

I was reading the data would be in for the 06Z runs

Thanks, so that would be the next set of runs....

Yep

[bostonseminole]

074100 1957N 08103W 6965 02843 9638 +150 +100 183004 006 019 003 00

[SouthFLTropics]

Gustav just reached out and touched me personally her on the Treasure Coast. I just got thrown out of bed by a squall and a huge burst of lightning and thunder...Has knocked the power out her in Port St. Lucie. Glad I got a laptop and a wireless card so I can keep tracking...That was some intense lightning and thunder...but as soon as it started it was gone...didn't last very long...

SFT

[Brent]

Cat 3 imminent!

[TexasSam]

From the Key West, Fl. tropical storm watch:

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 969 MB OR 28.61 INCHES.

[KWT]

Looks like this is ramping up again, eye has totally cleared out on IR and the eyewall has wrapped...

[Brent]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

:eek:

If trend keeps up, I expect a cat3 within the next 4 hours. With even a outside chance of a cat4 hitting Cuba.

[Thunder44]

From the Key West, Fl. tropical storm watch:

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 969 MB OR 28.61 INCHES.

Latest VDM has pressure down to 965mb.

[KWT]

Its certainly cleared out the eye very well, probably is undergoing some decent strengthening right now, recon will be very interesting to see what it shows over the next few hours.

[RL3AO]

Pressure down 6 mb in 2 hr 54 min (2.07 mb per hour) and 4 mb in 1 hr 40 min (2.41 mb per hour). Those both easily meet the qualification s of rapid deepening.

[HarlequinBoy]

Well here we go? Gustav is looking ominous this morning.


I have to work from 7 AM until 5 PM. I definitely expect a Cat 3 when I return.