ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

UKMET...to the Panhandle....

What the freakinfrackinwhackinsmackincrackin is going on here?


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[johngaltfla]

GFDL now goes to Tampa........


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

it looks to be a strong hurricane for Tampa just like what the HWRF thinks now....

albeit the HWRF is a little bit more west tracking just offshore the Clearwater area...

Any storm tracking just north of Clearwater is the worst possible scenario for Tampa. Especially if she slows down after crossing Cuba and builds strength rapidly which would not be unheard of for storms crossing near Key West moving northwards.

The surge into Anna Maria and Tampa Bay would be ugly, needless to say. Let's hope the 0500 forecast and updates are not that dire.

[MusicCityMan]

Models still jumping around huh.. I think the Panhandle is way too far north. This storm is probably on it's way for south and central florida.. She needs to get her act together a lil bit though

[gatorcane]

since its one run I'm not betting on it

but since Tampa is well-within the cone its not out of the question hurricane force winds may still impact the region.

[tolakram]

She's weak and she's moving west. Where have we seen this before? Honestly though we can't really say she's moving to far west because this could be a large wobble or just a temporary west movement.

[cpdaman]

SE side of fay, sample of winds not too shabby from recon 35-42 flightlevel and about the same for surface


also nice squall line making it's way into the keys in the next hour or so

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[KWT]

Doubt this strengthens much in the enxt 24hrs to be honest, shear thats is present doesn't ease off and if anything may increase a touch if it goes further west towards the ULL. EVentually though a westerly track is a good thing for Fay as it may well get over much better set-up again...

I think thats why some models really strengthen Fay past 36hrs as long as its still over water.

See nothing to suggest this will be a hurricane before Cuba, its going to have to form an inner core now for that to happen and shear won't allow it to happen.

[Texashawk]

Not sure if this is true, but aren't weaker, more diffuse storms less affected by atmospheric steering mechanisms than strong, compact ones?

[MusicCityMan]

Esp. since wobbles are common with systems.. seeing the map on the earlier page.. she may have time to strengthen if she stays over water long enough

[Jason_B]

Models still jumping around huh.. I think the Panhandle is way too far north. This storm is probably on it's way for south and central florida.. She needs to get her act together a lil bit though

I can't see anything getting up to the panhandle with that trough hanging up there. IMO the west movement is only going to delay landfall in south/central Florida, not going to change her final destination.

[cpdaman]

She's weak and she's moving west. Where have we seen this before? Honestly though we can't really say she's moving to far west because this could be a large wobble or just a temporary west movement.

well some models recently showed she may miss the first shortwave, like ukmet , heard this mentioned in model thread about an hour ago

[ExBailbonds]

Somebody posted earlier that schools in miami dade were going to be closed on monday . However http://www.miamidade.gov/emergency/ still says open and so does http://storms.dadeschools.net/

[MusicCityMan]

Monroe County closed but havent heard about miami dade

[storms in NC]

I don't think we will see a Hurricane before it hits Cuba. Once it get off and More water to work with I think you will have a low cat 1 to South Fla. I think it would start to see a move to the NW or North soon in like a few hours. JMO. She hasn't cleaned up her house up yet. Don't think that will happen till she is away from Cuba.

She reminds me of Chris a few years back. He was to go into hurricane and fell a part when he came off Cuba. Same thing could happen with Fay. Who knows what she will do. Why do you think they named them after women. I know I am cutting my own self down here cause I am a woman.

[KWT]

The other thing to note that these weak LLC do tend to jump about the overlal circulation, whilst it is now once again going west recently and sped up that doesn't mean a huge deal just yet unless that continues for a while. Model shifting a little to the west isn't that surprising given the slightly further west track than expected.

[Sanibel]

Porch plants and furniture inside.

I'm seeing left wobble south of trop points. Is this the shift we've all been looking for?

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 171818
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 17/18:11:10Z
B. 20 deg 42 min N
079 deg 46 min W
C. NA mb 1473 m
D. 30 kt
E. 270 deg 47 nm
F. 040 deg 023 kt
G. 274 deg 076 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 16 C/ 1504 m
J. 18 C/ 1473 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1306A FAY OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 18:07:40 Z

[ekal]

Monroe County closed but havent heard about miami dade

Miami-Dade County Schools closed Monday and possibly Tuesday, according to WSVN7. Word on Broward will come at 3:30 PM.

[KWT]

Well 43kts at least supports 35kts anyway so we do know that Fay is still a TS despite a pretty unimpressive presentation at the moment.

[cpdaman]

Doubt this strengthens much in the enxt 24hrs to be honest, shear thats is present doesn't ease off and if anything may increase a touch if it goes further west towards the ULL. EVentually though a westerly track is a good thing for Fay as it may well get over much better set-up again...

I think thats why some models really strengthen Fay past 36hrs as long as its still over water.

See nothing to suggest this will be a hurricane before Cuba, its going to have to form an inner core now for that to happen and shear won't allow it to happen.

well i see a blow up of convection very close to the center, and to the SE, her forward motion needs to slow a bit, and then we could see some RI imo

KWT have you looked at the ramdis loop it shows the blow up quite nicely?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

however it may be possible that the LLC we are watching is a big eddy and that she may reform further SE? i don't know but i have to take a test now so , thankfully i can get away from the site for a few hours, and come back and stop guessing and have some facts.