ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Stratusxpeye]

Monroe, Pinellas and Highlands county schools are closed

[KWT]

cpdaman, in theory it could slow right down and still have displaced convection because the problem is not foward speed its the fact its getting sheared by the ULL to its west, besides the simple fact is the LC is still partly exposed and until that gets resolved I doubt this is going to strengthen much if at all.

[Sanibel]

A small core will be easier to rev up over the GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's been about 24 hours since I've checked on Fay, not much change as I expected...However, since we are getting closer to landfall, I would reallly pay attention the models now as the margin for error is diminishing. I'm taking this "west" movement more seriously then I would if it happened yesterday or beyond...They will probably adjust the track on the next update....As Gator said, this can be much stronger if it lands further up the coast....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Doubt this strengthens much in the enxt 24hrs to be honest, shear thats is present doesn't ease off and if anything may increase a touch if it goes further west towards the ULL. EVentually though a westerly track is a good thing for Fay as it may well get over much better set-up again...

I think thats why some models really strengthen Fay past 36hrs as long as its still over water.

See nothing to suggest this will be a hurricane before Cuba, its going to have to form an inner core now for that to happen and shear won't allow it to happen.

well i see a blow up of convection very close to the center, and to the SE, her forward motion needs to slow a bit, and then we could see some RI imo

KWT have you looked at the ramdis loop it shows the blow up quite nicely?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

however it may be possible that the LLC we are watching is a big eddy and that she may reform further SE? i don't know but i have to take a test now so , thankfully i can get away from the site for a few hours, and come back and stop guessing and have some facts.

Looks like the W motion was an illusion like Wxman said..Looks WNW..

[Shockwave]

Doubt this strengthens much in the enxt 24hrs to be honest, shear thats is present doesn't ease off and if anything may increase a touch if it goes further west towards the ULL. EVentually though a westerly track is a good thing for Fay as it may well get over much better set-up again...

I think thats why some models really strengthen Fay past 36hrs as long as its still over water.

See nothing to suggest this will be a hurricane before Cuba, its going to have to form an inner core now for that to happen and shear won't allow it to happen.

well i see a blow up of convection very close to the center, and to the SE, her forward motion needs to slow a bit, and then we could see some RI imo

KWT have you looked at the ramdis loop it shows the blow up quite nicely?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

however it may be possible that the LLC we are watching is a big eddy and that she may reform further SE? i don't know but i have to take a test now so , thankfully i can get away from the site for a few hours, and come back and stop guessing and have some facts.

I hope we have some facts. This system is giving me a headache. Good luck on the test. If that test doesn't give you a test...Fay will be here waiting on your return!

[Sanibel]

Looks like the W motion was an illusion like Wxman said..Looks WNW..

Center looks south of trop points on satellite.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 2:25 PM EDT:

[KWT]

Well right now its moving just north of west, we've had recon confirm that from the last advisory estimate to the recon pass close to the center though I do think in the last hour its gone back to a more WNW again. Seems like its wobbling WNW, southern side of WNW mind you.

Convection still looks nicely sheared at the moment.

[Bgator]

Some outer bands are going to effect florida soon it looks like. Check the radar.

[Jason_B]

EDIT: here's the Camaguey radar.

[canetracker]

Looks like the W motion was an illusion like Wxman said..Looks WNW..

Center looks south of trop points on satellite.

Basing the center fix on last VDM, I noticed that too Sanibel.

[Sanibel]

You can see the lower half of a yin yang "S" in the SE quadrant convection which is a ULL right into the system on the west. That is fatal as far as intensification and development.

Tomorrow is when Fay gets interesting when that ULL pulls off and it heads N.

[cpdaman]

unfortunately that radar site has not been updating for 90 min, go to the radar SE of there, and you can see the center turning, also the squalls are much closer to key's now

perhaps the center is still back at 79.7 per Camaguey radar

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC best track:
Still at 45 kts:

AL, 06, 2008081718, , BEST, 0, 208N, 798W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0,

[KWT]

Yeah thats exactly right Sanibel, this won't strengthen much if at all whilst that ULL is present. The further west it can get now the better for strengthening as it will have longer to strengthen when the ULH does form in about 24-36hrs time.

[HURAKAN]

Well 43kts at least supports 35kts anyway so we do know that Fay is still a TS despite a pretty unimpressive presentation at the moment.

And the ob. was not inside the deep convection. Therefore, 45 knots wind is possible.

[gatorcane]

deep convection finally appears to be on the increase...just east of the center and trying to wrap around it...

could it be the first sign of intensification (the long-waited)?

I think it could be.

[MusicCityMan]

Could be gator.. Fay has been a resilliant one.. she's not apparently wanting to be deathly weak lol.. Even TWC said earlier she's "destined to be a US storm since she's survived so much else" lol

[Blown Away]

Fay is moving WNW right along the NHC forecast points, I don't see any additional W deviation yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html