ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Also, note the storm is definitely moving at a very brisk pace, faster then the forecast points and about on par with Derek Ortt's recent forecast in the TA Forum.


In any case, i'm evacuating today.

[caneman]

Steve,

Get out of town bud. You don't want to be on the right hand side of an approaching storm and you know how they tend to miss just right if where forecasted. Don't play around. Take care.

[stormy1970al]

Recon shows a NNW wobble in the past hour or so.

When I pulled it up on this site... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html and click the Trop point tool on top it looked like it was moving NNW. But then again I know the pro-mets can give a better explanation or clue on what is going on.

I do have one question though. If it continues moving NNW will that put more of the MS and AL at danger. I am headed to work so I know I will hear all kind of rumors once I get there. Nothing like working retail during hurricane season. Just hoping that I would know more of what is going on when I get there. Our local mets here are pretty much saying that until it gets into the GOM they do not know what Guv is doing. Just be prepare.

[dwg71]

stormy i would be concerned if i was on AL Miss coast, but just have a good plan in place and be ready

if heading continues for anothe few hours look for a shift east, but only slightly.

[Steve]

>>Um Steve, shouldn't you be "getting out of Dodge" soon?

Slept on the couch and have a neck and backache. Gotta go get some propane for my crazy, cajun brother in law who is thinking about staying. Kids are mostly packed, gotta pack myself (everything is washed and folded) and then just load the truck. We're going to try to hit the road before the onslaught. Mandatories begin for us at 12:00 noon and with all the people bringing up their boats and campers and lives from Grand Isle, Golden Meadow, et al, we don't want to get caught in the nowherefast lane. Many people are talking about leaving on Sunday morning so we'll time it based on how we can get around. Thanks Porta, might see you in Austin but haven't made up our minds yet whether we're going there or whether we're going see my gf in Chicago or points further east/west/north

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Just want to say- my prayers are with everyone in the path
of this hurricane. It is really tragic that many that went through
disaster in 2005 may have to face something similar again in a few days.

[Portastorm]

>>Um Steve, shouldn't you be "getting out of Dodge" soon?

Slept on the couch and have a neck and backache. Gotta go get some propane for my crazy, cajun brother in law who is thinking about staying. Kids are mostly packed, gotta pack myself (everything is washed and folded) and then just load the truck. We're going to try to hit the road before the onslaught. Mandatories begin for us at 12:00 noon and with all the people bringing up their boats and campers and lives from Grand Isle, Golden Meadow, et al, we don't want to get caught in the nowherefast lane. Many people are talking about leaving on Sunday morning so we'll time it based on how we can get around. Thanks Porta, might see you in Austin but haven't made up our minds yet whether we're going there or whether we're going see my gf in Chicago or points further east/west/north

Well Godspeed to you amigo! May you and your kids have a safe evacuation.

Looks like its gonna be hot and dry (nothing like being on the subsident/west side of a major cane) here in Austin for the next few days. After that, all depends on whether or not Gustav really bends back to the west or southwest.

[Sihara]

Just want to say- my prayers are with everyone in the path
of this hurricane. It is really tragic that many that went through
disaster in 2005 may have to face something similar again in a few days.

I'll add my prayers to yours TBH. I can't imagine how the people feel - those who endured Katrina, and now are facing a strike by another major hurricane.

And Steve, stay safe on the road!

[AJC3]

Here's a nearly 16 - that's right, 16-hour! time lapse of the Cuban radar mosaic for your enjoyment...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Mo ... 300715.gif

(broadband alert - this is a bandwidth buster - 1.75MB)

[stormy1970al]

Here's a nearly 16 - that's right, 16-hour! time lapse of the Cuban radar mosaic for your enjoyment...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Mo ... 300715.gif

(broadband alert - this is a bandwidth buster - 1.75MB)

Looks like someone is in a hurry at the end of that map. Thanks. I needed a smile on my face.

Now on a more serious side of things. For those in the path of this storm my prayers are with you.

[Sabanic]

It's without question slightly North and East of the forecast points...


Landfall interaction will be CRUCIAL to determine final landfall.

And north and east of the forecast doesn't bode well for NO. They need this storm to be as far west of them as they can get it (far east would be even better).

But would a slight change in movement at this point casue them to move the track eastward? Wouldn't it have to persist for a while first? A track moved eastward would be bad for NO, and MSGC also. Two areas devastated by Katrina.

[Thunder44]

It's without question slightly North and East of the forecast points...


Landfall interaction will be CRUCIAL to determine final landfall.

And north and east of the forecast doesn't bode well for NO. They need this storm to be as far west of them as they can get it (far east would be even better).

But would a slight change in movement at this point casue them to move the track eastward? Wouldn't it have to persist for a while first? A track moved eastward would be bad for NO, and MSGC also. Two areas devastated by Katrina.

They wouldn't need to change the track until the 11am Advisory, anyway. So we will see.

[dwg71]

sabanic, it has a 5 hour heading north of northwest. at current track, it will be almost one degree east of next nhc point. i would think the increase in forward speed and east movement does not bode well for nola, jmho

[Portastorm]

Besides, if you take a look at the 12-hr loop as well as the VDM fixes, the N-NW movement appears more like a wobble than anything else. Overall, Gustav appears to be trucking along now and heading northwest.

[WhirlWind]

To all in the path of this storm, my families prayers are with you all, stay safe and don't forget to check in.
WhirlWind

[soonertwister]

It's my understanding that at this point the biggest limiting factor on the ultimate strength of Gustav is projected shear.

I hope they are right. Remember when Gustav was a little storm? Not any more.

How long can NOLA wait before not taking chances any longer? Looks like we are under 72 hours from landfall if Gustav goes on the east side of the cone.

[Chacor]

Up to 105 kts/120 mph at the intermediate.

[dwg71]

from 4 am to 7am cst, the nhc moved from 20.2 81.3 to 20.8 81.6. That is a huge difference.

[ronjon]

Recon shows a NNW wobble in the past hour or so.

When I pulled it up on this site... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html and click the Trop point tool on top it looked like it was moving NNW. But then again I know the pro-mets can give a better explanation or clue on what is going on.

I do have one question though. If it continues moving NNW will that put more of the MS and AL at danger. I am headed to work so I know I will hear all kind of rumors once I get there. Nothing like working retail during hurricane season. Just hoping that I would know more of what is going on when I get there. Our local mets here are pretty much saying that until it gets into the GOM they do not know what Guv is doing. Just be prepare.

Stormy, even on the current NHC path (nevermind a slight eastward shift) coastal MS and AL are in danger of a massive storm surge. Remember, Katrina came in as a CAT 2/3 storm in SE La and caused over 20 feet of storm surge in coastal MS and 10-12 feet in Mobile Bay. The strong side of the storm is to the east - onshore winds will funnel water into MS and AL - add in the geography and it is simply a ticket for disaster. Sorry to be all gloom and doom but this is a situation that is deadly serious. I would definitely evacuate if I lived in coastal MS or AL.

[funster]

With that weird west/southwest bend at the end shown in the models Gustav could end up scraping much of the Louisiana coast and end up making landfall in Texas or missing the coast completely. It would hit a lot of the oil rigs doing that.