Global model runs discussion

[Ntxw]

I'm seeing a very intense low on the Euro at days 7-9 but it is difficult to tell if it is tropical or not.

Near CV or somewhere else?

Off the east coast in the vicinity of Bermuda. However it is a part of a trough and looks cold core with cold air on the other side, more like an intense nor'easter than tropical system.

[LaBreeze]

12Z GFS wants to bring a low into the GOM in the long range....along with this ATL TS that swings out to sea.
12Z CMC has a TS in the ATL but out to sea
12Z NAVGEM sees the same as the CMC

so to sum up there is potential for something in the ATL soon that could rack up some ACE....

wouldnt rule out a subtropical storm riding up this front thats swinging thru either.

Local met mentioned this evening that we may have to watch a "low" form on the end of the front and move northward toward SW LA/SE TX by Monday evening or Tuesday. I noticed that the rain chances go back up here on Tuesday. He mentioned the southerly winds picking up then with some coastal flooding possible.

[Ntxw]

The MJO continues to remain in place over the Maritime Continent, evident as we saw Usagi spawn and likely another to the east. WPAC activity likely will continue to be enhanced as models do not shift the MJO very much away from this region. Subsidence will continue to be favored in the western hemisphere at least through the first week of October.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

As a result models do very little on their latest runs. Lowest pressures are associated with deep troughs in the higher latitudes which is evidence the westerlies are beginning to shift further south with the seasons. If the model runs (even the crazy Canadian doesn't have phantom blowups in the latest) are correct the first half of October may remain mostly quiet in the Atlantic basin while the WPAC is active, likely reflecting the background influence of the MJO.

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS seems to be hinting at possible development just before truncation, I would like to see if this may be a possible trend in future model runs before seeing it as a possibility

The 12zGFS develops something east of Guatemala at 189hrs, so I would say it might be a trend for development but I would like to see if the 18z and 0z show this before I jump on board

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[blp]

The 6zGFS seems to be hinting at possible development just before truncation, I would like to see if this may be a possible trend in future model runs before seeing it as a possibility

The 12zGFS develops something east of Guatemala at 189hrs, so I would say it might be a trend for development but I would like to see if the 18z and 0z show this before I jump on board

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Interesting the 12z CMC and navgem showing something similar as well with the CMC weaker

[CourierPR]

As I understand it, the MJO only affects development in the MDR, not the Gulf or Caribbean. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[CrazyC83]

The MJO might not be the best indicator this year though. Nothing happened in the Atlantic when it was positive, yet Humberto and Ingrid formed at weak 2/3 stage.

[chaser1]

Pretty easy to see the rotation off the Texas coast developing along the tail end of the front draping across the N. Gulf. An awful lot of dry air on its west side as this feature slides Eastward. Looks to me that the EURO has some of the energy from this feature (or perhaps another low) and potentially develops a subtropical or even tropical system that might threaten New Brunswick in approx. 8 days. The 12Z CMC is especially bullish with this feature and has a pretty deep storm bending back and potentially threatening Nova Scotia or New Brunswick as well.

Tropical zones however seems pretty tepid. GFS doesn't seem too enthusiastic about the Cape Verde low. It isn't really developing anything yet in the Carib., but there does seem to be lower pressures and the suggestion that perhaps the ITCZ might be moving north and becoming a bit more active in the overall region. This would seem to contradict the present MJO forecast, but assume that too can easily change. Did notice that the EURO does have some feature seemingly moving into the Carib. towards the end of the forecast cycle.

All in all I think some additional Caribbean or Gulf development will occur during the upcoming 6 weeks. Per the GFS 200mb maps, downstream upper air conditions would seem to be conducive for development in the Caribbean and the GFS is only really showing significant westerlies starting to scream across the lower CONUS very late in the 10-14 day range. Though there is no model evidence to support development, I think the building high pressure off the Carolina s by next weekend might help with convergence in the Central or Western Carib. at that time. Biggest unknown still remains what type of moisture or dryer lower/mid level air will we be contending with.

Just a quick footnote.... i noticed the MJO position but am assuming that this should have little to do with any enhancement of the Eastern Pacific. The ITCZ seems fairly active there right now and would be interesting to see if development were to occur here during the next week. Satellite would indicate a couple of decent systems were ripe to develop (in any normal year) and if they were to do so than might be a bit more optimistic that whatever tropical "disease" has muted development this year... might just be starting to wane (certainly NOT a forecast but just conjecture).

[Ntxw]

The MJO might not be the best indicator this year though. Nothing happened in the Atlantic when it was positive, yet Humberto and Ingrid formed at weak 2/3 stage.

What makes you say that? There is well documented evidence that phases 1-2-3 are golden phases. We went through 1/2 and got Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Ingrid. It left those phases into the opposite regions and MDR does nothing after Humberto and 95L struggles.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS is showing lowering pressures north of Panama from a possible monsoon trough and doesnt really get a development going until hr252 and sends it to near Key West at the end of the runs so if anything can be taken away from this is that after hr 168 it seems to really lower the pressures in the western Caribbean which is something to watch for

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS closes off a low at hr 177 in the NW Caribbean, its definately becoming more possible since the formation time is moved up to pre truncation so this area may need to be watched next week

between hrs 252 and 264 has landfall near Miami but as is known that far out is prone to large errors in intensity and track

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[chaser1]

240 GEM (CMC) model from this evenings 240 hr. run shows 3 storms on the map. One approaching Fl. Keys, other in the S.E. Caribbean, and last one in the MDR half way to Africa. Dare to dream.......

[chaser1]

hmmm, still working out the kinks in learning the exact process to properly upload a graphic via Image Shack.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: hmmm, still working out the kinks in learning the exact process to properly upload a graphic via Image Shack.

You can upload images by going to tinypic.

http://tinypic.com/

[hurricanes1234]

So could we still see a hurricane in the eastern Pacific before the season ends? I've been mentioning on other threads that the ITCZ is steadily improving there, which could be the result of MJO? What are these runs showing for the rest of this month and next month?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

:uarrow: hmmm, still working out the kinks in learning the exact process to properly upload a graphic via Image Shack.

You can upload images by going to tinypic.

http://tinypic.com/

That method of uploading was one I have not seen since maybe 2007, congrats chaser1!

The prospect of a weak storm maybe being modeled after 192 hours does not excite me.

[ronjon]

00z CMC the most bullish on potential tropical cyclone impact to the US in some time. Yes I know its the crazy canadian. It does have some support from the GFS on its western caribbean system although not as strong.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013092300/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[cycloneye]

The 00z ECMWF has something at MDR in 240 hours.

[CourierPR]

That blob down in the SW Caribbean looks suspicious. Maybe something will eventually develop from that?

[Blown Away]

00z GEM shows a TS near Keys in 240 hours...

06z GFS has closed low near/over Cuba in 240 hours...

It's something, I guess...Bears watching due to time of year...GEM also showing possible TS in Central Caribbean...