Texas Winter 2013-2014

[katheria]

at this point what happens just happens for tomorrow...

we have been surprised before

im sure everyone remembers this:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAMPASAS TO WACO TO PALESTINE LINE. A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME SLUSHY OR ICY SPOTS
MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE...DALLAS... PARIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE RAIN AND SNOW
EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAMPASAS...WACO...
PALESTINE LINE. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES. SOME SLICK SPOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



i wound up with 16.5" at my house....


surprises with the weather happen all the time, even with our wonderful forecast models.

time to watch the outside world

[TheProfessor]

Any news on the 12z Euro?

Edit: I wonder why the forum is so slow today?

[SouthernMet]

nws norman upgrades to Winter Storm Warning for southern oklahoma & nw tx..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
126 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

OKZ032-036>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020330-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0001.140202T0000Z-140203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0001.140202T0300Z-140203T0000Z/
HUGHES-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-
COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLDENVILLE...ALTUS...FREDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
126 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 3 PM.

* MAIN IMPACT: A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL END WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.25 INCH ARE
ALSO LIKELY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A WICHITA FALLS TO ADA LINE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DURANT AND ATOKA MAY EXCEED 0.25 INCH
SUNDAY AND NECESSITATE A FURTHER WARNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL.

[TheProfessor]

SREF continues to increase are qpf. it's mean is now at .4 inches. over a 1/3 of the ensembles have us receiving at least .5 inches.

[SouthernMet]

I wonder why the forum is so slow today?

Wondering the same thing.. Alot to talk about, wish Orangeblood would chime in.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I am in New Orleans for the day and the weather is absolutely perfect. Not looking forward to the drive back to DFW tomorrow.

[SouthernMet]

North Texans need to pay really close attention to the HRRR, much wetter & further south. 15 hours out has very heavy precip out in west texas but MUCH further south than expected. Surprise surprise..(as someone pointed out sref ensembles also wetter) Plot thickens.

[gboudx]

It's probably slow because it's the weekend and people have things to do. I just got a WWA txt for Rockwall county with WSW further west.

[SouthernMet]

nws fort worth adds - Jack, Montague, Cooke, Young & Stephens counties to the Winter Storm Warning for 2-4" of snow on top of a glazing of ice.

edit : dfw also now under a wwa

[SouthernMet]

westplexers & red river counties need to really watch this imo

[gpsnowman]

If winter does pay us a visit, this board will light up regardless of the Super Bowl. I know me, if it is snowing the Neilson ratings for the snow will be higher than the game.
It is going to be very cool smoking ribs tomorrow in the sleet/snow. Not cool if a cold rain.

[TheProfessor]

I'm thinking if the models trend colder and the short term models continue to trend wetter than FWD might need to extend that WSR to Wise, Denton, and Collin counties.

[weatherdude1108]

12Z GFS has just a little freezing rain in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area with sleet to the NW and snow up along the Red River northward into OK. This airmass is not that cold compared to earlier this week. I don't think you'll get any snow in the D-FW area this weekend.

Why must you always ruin the fun?

Sorry. I think you'll get a foot or two of snow in north Texas tomorrow.

[TrekkerCC]

NWS FWD office has also posted a Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory for numerous counties (basically metroplex and NW) in their CWA.

Snippets of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory below

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

TXZ091-092-100-101-115-020600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.140202T1200Z-140203T0300Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-STEPHENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...BRECKENRIDGE
218 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND SOME ICE ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING. A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING.

and

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

TXZ093-094-102>104-116>120-129>131-141-020600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.140202T1200Z-140203T0300Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...
ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...
GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
COMANCHE...DE LEON
218 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH
AFTERNOON. SOME SLEET OR SNOW MAY MIX IN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

So it begins....

[iorange55]

Gotta love the NAM...

[dhweather]

[SouthernMet]

nws san angelo on board.. issues Winter Storm Warning for Throckmorton, Fisher, Haskell, Jones & Shackelford counties (along & north of i-20) and wwa for Big Spring, Brownwood, & San Angelo.

edit : for those that follow steve mccauley he has the hardest hit areas between w falls & denton into far southern ok this goes for snow & ice.(similar to christmas eve 09)

[iorange55]

DFW NWS Discussion...

THE WINTRY MIX WILL
GEAR UP OUT WEST OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNSET SUNDAY. WE STILL FEEL THAT A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
LIQUID PRECIP INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITION TO MOST FREEZING RAIN AS
SURFACE TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING. AS THE WARM NOSE ERODES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
SNOW. DUE TO THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC SIGNATURE...THE TRANSITION
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SLEET AND SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE WARNING AREA AND GENERALLY A DUSTING TO NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. TO ADD TO THIS EQUATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLANT-WISE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE ENHANCED
PRODUCTION OF SLEET/SNOW...RESULTING IN BANDS OF HIGHER
ACCUMULATION THAT WOULD COVER ROADS MORE QUICKLY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN WEST TO EAST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

It'll be interesting to see who wins the battle. Steve McCauley's map looks a lot different went it comes to snow totals...

[TheProfessor]

I know we don't like to trust accuweather. But they have .33 inches of ice with 1.46inches of snow for my area.

[Tammie]

Accuweather also has our temps a few degrees colder as well. That freeze line on the maps has me concerned.