ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

I've seen this movie before...Emily, Harvey.

It has to slow down before anything can really get going.

Most models dont show this getting stronger for about 48 hours

[NDG]

I don't see evidence of a closed LLC this morning. May not happen until 97L gets closer to the islands later tonight or tomorrow morning, the story so far this season.

Yes, I agree - thankfully so far this system is very similar to the past few that had everyone jumping up and down at first glance but were proved to be less than expected...

I was just looking at the WV again, and what still jumps out at me is the TUTT/LLC feature - it's narrowing a bit but has been there for a number of days, and the trough dropping SE into Florida and the Bahamas will only tighten things up even more, so not the best environment for 97L...

Frank

I disagree with you regarding the TUTT.
The biggest inhibitor to go against 97L is possibly land interaction.

[cycloneye]

Is a go for this afternoons mission

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1100Z
       D. 15.8N 61.8W
       E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
       C. 21/2300Z
       D. 16.5N 65.00W
       E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
       B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
    3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
       MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
       SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION.



[janswizard]

How long will it take before some info gets back to us?

[cycloneye]

How long will it take before some info gets back to us?

Around 1:30-2 PM EDT,the plane should have reached the center of 97L.

[cycloneye]

All comments about the missions here.

Dave,are you going to take this one?

[deltadog03]

I think this will wait to really get going around the islands or just to the west......

[Aric Dunn]

notice where recon is flying too..

D. 15.8N 61.8W

[Adoquín]

if you look at the last two frames, it seems that the principal spin continues to be well to the north of 14.3, closer to 15.5.
Has it slowed down Luis or is it still at 20?

[Gustywind]

Orange alert have been required for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards at 12AM due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms expected on these two islands, while Martinica is in yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe ( latest weather forecast) the possible center of 97L is at 13,7 N 58W or 500 km east of Martinica.

[CourierPR]

notice where recon is flying too..

D. 15.8N 61.8W

Yes, and I mentioned that area earlier as a possible site for LLC formation.

[Adoquín]

Aric, I see the 15.8 but not the 61.8 part of it.

[cycloneye]

if you look at the last two frames, it seems that the principal spin continues to be well to the north of 14.3, closer to 15.5.
Has it slowed down Luis or is it still at 20?

We will know when recon arrives,where is the low center and by that,how fast or not is moving will be known.

[northjaxpro]

notice where recon is flying too..

D. 15.8N 61.8W

That is interesting. I don't want to imply too much into this , but Aric, are we looking at a possible LLC being located a bit more north where the deepest convection is currently?

[Dave]

I have to break for a few...then yes I can pick it up...still on harvey.

[Frank2]

Hey, someone has to inject some other thoughts here - but be careful what you post, since many non-weather folks also visit this site...

As for the system, as others said it needs to slow down before it can develop, and I agree that land interaction might be the key, per previous systems that were also thought to develop but didn't due to their track over the larger islands...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I see the 15.8 but not the 61.8 part of it.

well that would be tomorrows position I believe. the 61.8 W point is if the llc was forming farther south than to get all the way up to 15.8 and 61.8 by tomorrow would be a NW motion..

[Aric Dunn]

notice where recon is flying too..

D. 15.8N 61.8W

That is interesting. I don't want to imply too much into this , but Aric, are we looking at a possible LLC being located a bit more north where the deepest convection is currently?

No about 15 N is where it looks to be developing now. the target for tomorrow just tells me they are not looking farther south for any LLC

[cycloneye]

Aric, I see the 15.8 but not the 61.8 part of it.

well that would be tomorrows position I believe. the 61.8 W point is if the llc was forming farther south than to get all the way up to 15.8 and 61.8 by tomorrow would be a NW motion..

This was from yesterdays TCPOD for todays mission.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 20/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
       C. 20/1615Z
       D. 15.3N 57.5W
       E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I see the 15.8 but not the 61.8 part of it.

well that would be tomorrows position I believe. the 61.8 W point is if the llc was forming farther south than to get all the way up to 15.8 and 61.8 by tomorrow would be a NW motion..

This was from yesterdays TCPOD for todays mission.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 20/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
       C. 20/1615Z
       D. 15.3N 57.5W
       E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



thank you. even they saw it farther north than the best track estimates last night.