ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[KatDaddy]

Wow SE LA Flash Flood Watch......ioslated 15-20" rains!

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO
WAS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST THEN MEANDER AROUND THE NORTH GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINS THAT PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LAZ056>070-MSZ080>082-011715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.A.0003.110901T0903Z-110905T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...
PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
403 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD AND UPPER TERREBONNE. IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* EFFICIENT AND TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MID-GULF REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND GENERAL PONDING OF WATER IN
STREETS. MODEL ESTIMATES AND THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES AN AVERAGE OF 10 INCHES MAY OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF
THE GULF SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ENSURE THAT
DRAINAGE DITCHES...CATCH BASINS...AND CULVERTS ARE CLEARED OF
DEBRIS BEFORE RAINS ONSET TO ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE DRAINAGE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

[HouTXmetro]

In my unprofessional opinion, I'm thinking the center may form further south where Wxman47 posted earlier... closer to 26N 90W "IF" the shear can relax. Otherwise where Aric is showing.

[Portastorm]

For those of you with questions about computer models vs. tropical models vs. spaghetti models, the NWSFO in Fort Worth just issued a fantastic forecast discussion where they lay this all out. It is very educational and HIGHLY RECOMMENDED reading!

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[stewart715]

It could sit over water for a while...

[PTrackerLA]

The NAM thinks this starts organizing very quickly, takes it down to 986mb as it moves into Louisiana and then basically just sits on my house for days .

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=L

[KWT]

It'll probably have multiple reformations, these types of systems do like to relocate, esp when shear does start to lower and it can finally start trying to stack itself.

[Comanche]

anyone going to post the GFS?

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS has this stalling over Central and SE Louisiana coast for days..out to 102 hours



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CYCLONE MIKE]

PT, if that is even close to being right you and I will be getting a crap ton of rain and wind. Could loose more trees than we did with Gustav. Reason being with all the rain leading to saturated grounds/rootballs, throw some strong winds in there for a few days and it is not a pretty scenario!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

12z GFS has this stalling over Central and SE Louisiana coast for days..out to 102 hours

Hey Michael, you mind posting a couple of images? Also how strong is the GFS showing 93 getting? Sorry see it now. If this does develop does not look good for us down here in south LA.

[Turtle]

It's ironic how the GFS rain totals line up direct along the TX/LA border. I-20 looks better, but only for central/eastern LA.

Up to hour 102:

[Ivanhater]

114 hours,,getting picked up heading NE into Mississippi



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[crazy4disney]

For those of you with questions about computer models vs. tropical models vs. spaghetti models, the NWSFO in Fort Worth just issued a fantastic forecast discussion where they lay this all out. It is very educational and HIGHLY RECOMMENDED reading!

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

That was very, very helpful. Thanks, Porta!!

-gina-

[tailgater]

I was in my computer room reading the latest on 93L when I heard a loud thump, so i go outside and to my dismay my Queen's Island palm that was 28ft tall is now 6ft, it just snapped off in about a 20mph gust. luckly it missed my house but dam I really liked that tree.

[ConvergenceZone]

Per the above paragraph from the national weather service"
"THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST THEN MEANDER AROUND THE NORTH GULF THIS WEEKEND."

Does that mean that they are thinking that this system won't move inland anytime soon?

[Macrocane]

Per the above paragraph from the national weather service"
"THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST THEN MEANDER AROUND THE NORTH GULF THIS WEEKEND."

Does that mean that they are thinking that this system won't move inland anytime soon?

That's what the models have been showing, an erratic behavior with possible landfall and then back to water for several days.

[Stormcenter]

One big disorganized mess in the GOM.....for now at least.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[ConvergenceZone]

One big disorganized mess in the GOM.....for now at least.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

I agree with you, but the torrential rains in LA are going to be horrible, at least
based upon the latest flood watch...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Good Lord Michael, that runs shows it sitting on or very near me for almost 5 days. That is insane. We could have major problems around here if that verifies.

[petit_bois]

Good Lord Michael, that runs shows it sitting on or very near me for almost 5 days. That is insane. We could have major problems around here if that verifies.

looks like MOST of the wind and raid would fall on us here in Mississippi