ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Freak you are right I get your point, but on the other hand wrong as well. There have been many of systems that have been forecast by the NHC and models to strengthen into strong systems while moving through the caribbean or gulf and just fell apart or just never got act together due to dry air, shear, etc, etc.

[RL3AO]

I swear this happens every time with these CV systems

Convection pops - Why isn't this a TD/TS? It looks amazing. Could be a hurricane within 36 hours.
Convection wanes - Going to dissipate by morning. Looks terrible.
Convection redevelops - Why isn't this a tropical storm yet? Looks great. OMGZZZZZZZZZ IS THAT AN EYE?

[wkwally]

After going through the nervous time with Debby I am going to sit on my heels for the time being. I have a small gut feeling that I could be spotting next week here in the RGV, but this is still to far out. Will see what it is doing on Monday.

[SoupBone]

I swear this happens every time with these CV systems

Convection pops - Why isn't this a TD/TS? It looks amazing. Could be a hurricane within 36 hours.
Convection wanes - Going to dissipate by morning. Looks terrible.
Convection redevelops - Why isn't this a tropical storm yet? Looks great. OMGZZZZZZZZZ IS THAT AN EYE?

This is why we're all nuts about CV systems.

Oh and relax, "Winter is Coming. "

[Zanthe]

I swear this happens every time with these CV systems

Convection pops - Why isn't this a TD/TS? It looks amazing. Could be a hurricane within 36 hours.
Convection wanes - Going to dissipate by morning. Looks terrible.
Convection redevelops - Why isn't this a tropical storm yet? Looks great. OMGZZZZZZZZZ IS THAT AN EYE?

There has never been a truer statement uttered by anyone anywhere. I seriously doubt this system is going to entirely dissipate, at least in the short term. It's a low end TD, we're not going to see robust convection and super tall cloud tops. It's not the best looking depression I've ever seen, but it's far from the worst. Also, can I use that whole thing in my signature? I think, it's just, beyond epic.

[RL3AO]

0z GFS 12 hr

[MiamiensisWx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I would also like to aver that most systems which are on the cusp of rapid intensification, or even steady strengthening, usually show marked characteristics as such...namely, unrestricted or expanding outflow in the N and/or S quadrants, thereby forming a dual outflow channel; ample surrounding moisture at mid-atmospheric levels / 700 mb; and a well-coordinated, vertically stacked circulation at the low and mid-levels, which allows the system to deepen and further tighten / strengthen its low-level vorticity. Equally true is that systems about to dissipate usually show the opposite trends, and that there are common trends: the models forecasted a deepening or a track that was not supported by climatology in a given type of seasonal environment, such as a year with weak Niño conditions by August and a persistent vortex over Canada, both of which tend to result in more upper-level lows, more stable air, and more shear. Also, years with early-season development north of the tropics tend to discourage development in certain areas of the tropics relative to the tracks of the early-season storms, which turned east this year, as in the case of Debby, due to the strong Canadian vortex and the East Coast trough / Plains ridge set-up. So, climatology was really against this system from the beginning, but because the most sophisticated dynamical models analyze the initial conditions and take into account local factors, they often forecast more intensification and more northward tracks, or even falsely prefigure development, in cases such as that of TD 5.

As an aside, the weaker intensity over the next few days makes a track south of Barbados more probable.

Storm2k Disclaimer added

[RL3AO]

30hr

[wkwally]

well waiting on the new update from the NHC

[RL3AO]

48hr

[AJC3]

well waiting on the new update from the NHC

The intermediate advisory won't be out until 2AM, and the next full package isn't due for about 5 hours.

[ozonepete]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I would also like to aver that most systems which are on the cusp of rapid intensification, or even steady strengthening, usually show marked characteristics as such...namely, unrestricted or expanding outflow in the N and/or S quadrants, thereby forming a dual outflow channel; ample surrounding moisture at mid-atmospheric levels / 700 mb; and a well-coordinated, vertically stacked circulation at the low and mid-levels, which allows the system to deepen and further tighten / strengthen its low-level vorticity. Equally true is that systems about to dissipate usually show the opposite trends, and that there are common trends: the models forecasted a deepening or a track that was not supported by climatology in a given type of seasonal environment, such as a year with weak Ñino conditions by August and a persistent vortex over Canada, both of which tend to result in more upper-level lows, more stable air, and more shear. Also, years with early-season development north of the tropics tend to discourage development in certain areas of the tropics relative to the tracks of the early-season storms, which turned east this year, as in the case of Debby, due to the strong Canadian vortex and the East Coast trough / Plains ridge set-up. So, climatology was really against this system from the beginning, but because the most sophisticated dynamical models analyze the initial conditions and take into account local factors, they often forecast more intensification and more northward tracks, or even falsely prefigure development, in cases such as that of TD 5.

Storm2k Disclaimer added

Climatological conditions such as the presence or lack of El Nino conditions (and we are not in a weak El Nino right now, we are ENSO neutral) are often irrelevant. You can have very low shear for weeks at a time during a high shear, full El Nino season. When they are relevant everyone points them out. When exceptions to them show up, everyone gets quiet and confused, as if climatology should always work.

Relying on climatology, without pointing out and considering the current exceptions, will get you nowhere.

[JonathanBelles]

Update on TD5...more updates later tonight!

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... es-issued/

[wkwally]

I know that I like to go alonge with the Euro but I still have Debby fresh in my mind so I am watching the GFS closly also.

[RL3AO]

63hr



Looks maybe a bit faster and further south. Impressive ridging north/northwest.

[floridasun78]

63hr

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... _200wd.gif

Looks maybe a bit faster and further south. Impressive ridging north/northwest.

but not that south now for it take that track

[cycloneye]

Because it has it weak is way south.

[RL3AO]

90hr



Actually got a tad stronger...actually has a vort max.

[floridasun78]

going bed let see how it look and see what models show doing night have good night

[floridasun78]

going bed let see how it look and see what models show doing night have good night