Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

I was wondering about your opinions on the I44 corridor, specifically the Wichita Falls area. Local mets have been downplaying this system and I am curious if it is due to how the last event played out. They seem to think most will stay to the East of us. Seems like many areas have local mets downplaying the severity of this event, but is there anything behind their reluctance in the Wichita Falls area?

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Did you see the latest news? You're now under a Winter Storm WARNING! Check out your latest NWS forecast. You've got the good folks from Norman, Oklahoma, who do your forecasts and they know a thing or two about winter weather. Good group to trust.

[downsouthman1]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...

They are in a tough spot. After a big "fail" last week, they are gun shy. They don't want to get the public perception out there of "crying wolf".


On the other side of that coin, does anyone complain when there is a PDS Tornado Watch, and only a few F1-2's are all that happens?[/quote]


No. Because forecasting a PDS Tornado Watch still is not generally a widespread problem as the chances of being impacted by one of those tornadoes is low. Adversely, when you issue a WSWarning or Ice Storm Warning, you're forecasting the entire area in the Warning to be impacted; thus, widespread impact. You cannot compare the 2. It's apples & oranges.

[dhweather]

Porta, what are your thoughts based on recent trends for NW MS, we are actually farther north in latitude than DFW along hwy 82 right at the river. Normally, the cold air drains through the flat land and we end up colder, right now our NWS is not quite sure whats going to happen here.

It's going to be a close call. I'd be most concerned from a line north of Greenville to Tupelo. Most likely it's only going to be counties bordering Tennessee. As always, stay tuned!

[dhweather]

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

Or Porta, they are scared of getting burned. I think they maybe gun shy...

They are in a tough spot. After a big "fail" last week, they are gun shy. They don't want to get the public perception out there of "crying wolf".


On the other side of that coin, does anyone complain when there is a PDS Tornado Watch, and only a few F1-2's are all that happens?

No. Because forecasting a PDS Tornado Watch still is not generally a widespread problem as the chances of being impacted by one of those tornadoes is low. Adversely, when you issue a WSWarning or Ice Storm Warning, you're forecasting the entire area in the Warning to be impacted; thus, widespread impact. You cannot compare the 2. It's apples & oranges.[/quote]

My point is, if the NWS misses on a major severe weather outbreak, nobody really complains, they are usually glad to dodge a bullet. If they miss on a winter weather episode, something that is exponentially more difficult to forecast, people want to riot. Public perception is a finicky thing.

[Tireman4]

They are in a tough spot. After a big "fail" last week, they are gun shy. They don't want to get the public perception out there of "crying wolf".


On the other side of that coin, does anyone complain when there is a PDS Tornado Watch, and only a few F1-2's are all that happens?[/quote]


No. Because forecasting a PDS Tornado Watch still is not generally a widespread problem as the chances of being impacted by one of those tornadoes is low. Adversely, when you issue a WSWarning or Ice Storm Warning, you're forecasting the entire area in the Warning to be impacted; thus, widespread impact. You cannot compare the 2. It's apples & oranges.[/quote]

Yeah, I would not want to be in their shoes. No way. Danged if you do and danged if you do not. Tough call. I agree.

[CaptinCrunch]

I was wondering about your opinions on the I44 corridor, specifically the Wichita Falls area. Local mets have been downplaying this system and I am curious if it is due to how the last event played out. They seem to think most will stay to the East of us. Seems like many areas have local mets downplaying the severity of this event, but is there anything behind their reluctance in the Wichita Falls area?

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

Did you see the latest news? You're now under a Winter Storm WARNING! Check out your latest NWS forecast. You've got the good folks from Norman, Oklahoma, who do your forecasts and they know a thing or two about winter weather. Good group to trust.

Norman NSC has greatly increased the winter storm warning over much of OK and into NW part of Texas. I would expect the NWS FTW to also upgrade the Winter Storm Watch for NCTX to a Winter Storm Warning late this evening. As we get closer to this winter event all signs are pointing to a much more serious situation than just forecasted on Monday.

[downsouthman1]

My point is, if the NWS misses on a major severe weather outbreak, nobody really complains, they are usually glad to dodge a bullet. If they miss on a winter weather episode, something that is exponentially more difficult to forecast, people want to riot. Public perception is a finicky thing.

I got you. Sorry I missed your point.

[dhweather]

I agree Captain Crunch, I think they'll wait one more forecast cycle before sounding the alarm. Get all the 12Z globals, latest NAM et al, and then make their best estimate.

[orangeblood]

I agree.. There's a fine line between "being conservative" & being just downright reckless and irresponsible.. Saying things like "northern counties MAY see a light glaze on bridges/overpasses", 24 hours out from the event, is a bit underplaying it..

Stay tuned

I honestly think it's incompetence, at the very least all you have to do is look at the position of the Polar HP and make a simplistic approach to a forecast if you have borderline temps. This time around the HP in sitting over Montana moving south with strong north winds/cold advection, the last event the HP was over Kentucky moving east with east winds/little cold advection. This is not the time for an Pro TV met to show incompetence and I hope that's not the case.

[downsouthman1]

I agree.. There's a fine line between "being conservative" & being just downright reckless and irresponsible.. Saying things like "northern counties MAY see a light glaze on bridges/overpasses", 24 hours out from the event, is a bit underplaying it..

Stay tuned

I honestly think it's incompetence, at the very least all you have to do is look at the position of the Polar HP and make a simplistic approach to a forecast if you have borderline temps. This time around the HP in sitting over Montana moving south with strong north winds/cold advection, the last event the HP was over Kentucky moving east with east winds/little cold advection. This is not the time for an Pro TV met to show incompetence and I hope that's not the case.

Wow. Incompetence is such a strong word. I mean, I know where you're coming from but I'm also playing Devil's advocate on this storm.

[Ntxw]

Well to be fair last storm they had the GFS to stand on. There isn't much support this time, every major weather model is a serious event that needs to be respected for it's potential impacts.

I'll wait for the text output to come out but teens are likely in DFW and it looks like GFS is trying to go lower still. -10F+ in Oklahoma over the ice/snow fields.

[gboudx]

Not meaning to dogpile, but the TV mets could use the graphics from the NWS and cite the reference. The DFW NWS clearly says, "Prolonged travel impacts and power outages are possible through the weekend especially where heavy ice accumulates. If you are in or near the watch area, begin making preparations now for possible power outages, icy roads, and the likelihood of having to remain at home for several days.".

What would be the harm in sharing this info from the NWS?

[orangeblood]

I agree.. There's a fine line between "being conservative" & being just downright reckless and irresponsible.. Saying things like "northern counties MAY see a light glaze on bridges/overpasses", 24 hours out from the event, is a bit underplaying it..

Stay tuned

I honestly think it's incompetence, at the very least all you have to do is look at the position of the Polar HP and make a simplistic approach to a forecast if you have borderline temps. This time around the HP in sitting over Montana moving south with strong north winds/cold advection, the last event the HP was over Kentucky moving east with east winds/little cold advection. This is not the time for an Pro TV met to show incompetence and I hope that's not the case.

Wow. Incompetence is such a strong word. I mean, I know where you're coming from but I'm also playing Devil's advocate on this storm.

IMO, In these type situations there is no reason to play conservative, this is not a "manageable" type snow storm we're talking about here. This is a potential very crippling ice storm staring at you from every model you look at. Being a little embarrassed if you bust again is not a reason to be gun shy

[dhweather]

Not meaning to dogpile, but the TV mets could use the graphics from the NWS and cite the reference. The DFW NWS clearly says, "Prolonged travel impacts and power outages are possible through the weekend especially where heavy ice accumulates. If you are in or near the watch area, begin making preparations now for possible power outages, icy roads, and the likelihood of having to remain at home for several days.".

What would be the harm in sharing this info from the NWS?

They referenced the 2011 Super Bowl week in the discussion this morning. That crippled the metroplex for a week. Not saying it's going to be just like that, but the fact they referenced it indicates the serious potential this system has:


THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE IMPACTS SIMILAR TO
SUPERBOWL WEEK 2011...WHEN MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS STAYED COLD FOR A
SIMILAR PERIOD AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER OCCURRED. IF
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST FASTER THAN FORECAST...THE
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE SHORTER AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD DRY OUT FASTER. IF THE MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE
COLD ADVECTION OR THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVES...LESS WINTER
WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

[Annie Oakley]

If you don't like the weather (forecast ?).....wait 5 minutes.
That's what they say in Texas, right? Maybe it goes for the forecasters also lol.

Thanks Porta and all Pro-Mets for being here.

[Portastorm]

If you don't like the weather (forecast ?).....wait 5 minutes.
That's what they say in Texas, right? Maybe it goes for the forecasters also lol.

Thanks Porta and all Pro-Mets for being here.

Sure, and thank YOU for being here! Like I said yesterday ... you all make this forum as fun and exciting and informative as it is. It would be nothing without you.

OK, since I started the rant I should probably ask us all, including myself, to re-focus on the actual weather and forecasts. This has been a good, healthy discussion. And as a moderator, I encourage good, healthy dialogue and do not like shutting things down unless we go over the edge. We're not close to that yet, so don't worry. But we should probably get back to looking over that 12z GFS run, soundings, skew-T's, etc.

BTW, if this deal ends up being much ado about nothing. I'll be the first to post a "Portastorm Sucks" post and acknowledge just how wrong I was.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS

...LATEST 15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD FRONT SNAKING ITS WAY FROM SW MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST
PROGRESS SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE HEELS OF OUR NW MOST ZONES BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION AND/OR RAIN ON THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY.

WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO MAKE SOME STRONG DECISIONS ON WINTER STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT THESE HAZARDS WILL BE NEEDED AT LEAST FOR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL ADDRESS THESE ISSUES
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

[wxman57]

Portastorm do you think the weather service here is seeing what Wxman57 does, that the most ice should stay to our north so they are just staying with the special weather statement?

Well, I'm going to disagree with my friend wxman57 about this weekend. Granted, he has forgotten more about meteorology than I'll ever know ... but I'm basing my thoughts on what I see in the models and what I have experienced in 30 years here with these kinds of events. Here are my thoughts at the moment regarding our (Austin) weather. I think the Hill Country and northern areas (Llano, Burnet, Cedar Park, Georgetown, parts of Round Rock) will see freezing drizzle/rain during the Thursday night-Friday overnight hours. I think surface temps during that time frame will be at or below freezing and that a significant chance exists of *some* icing on bridges and overpasses in that area. I think the general Austin metro area will be ok during that timeframe. Temps have been so warm this week that it's going to take a bit of time of surface temps at or below freezing to cool it down.

But, starting Friday night and throughout the weekend, I think periods of freezing drizzle/freezing rain/sleet will occur throughout the general Austin area and temps will not climb above freezing and we'll see a cumulative effect of greater icing issues on bridges, overpasses, and less traveled roadways. I do think it's going to be much, much worse to our north.

Frankly, I'm astounded right now to see some of these DFW-area mets saying what they are about this event. I may be crossing the line as a S2K mod here, but I say it's either professional ignorance or incompetence.

I don't disagree with anything there, Portastorm. Austin (city) is on the borderline as far as freezing rain/sleet. Those areas north and west of Austin will likely see some freezing rain and sleet. Keep in mind that freezing rain/drizzle can form in trees and on power lines while the SURFACE temperature may be 35 or even 36 degrees. It's not going to form on surface streets at those temps, however. Tall bridges may have temps cooler than the surrounding area 2-meter temperature readings, so they could have some issues with freezing rain.

[Parker_County1]

Per Mesonet observations, the wind shift and first surge of cool air is currently along a line from Breckenridge to Mineral Wells to Decatur-Gainesville.

[Annie Oakley]

Looking forward-name your county? For reports coming in near future.....


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