ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

The plane is also finding SE winds at 24.6N/88W, with a weak swirl indicated near 24.6N/88.3W. Evidence of a weak LLC where it was initialized in the model data. Winds very light all over. I'm sure the plane will find 30-35 kts in the convection way to the east, but I don't think this qualifies as a TD/TS so far.

[thetruesms]

SPC Day Two outlook shows "slight" risk for severe weather in your area for this system. It can't be ruled out but the probability is very low.

can u list the reason or reason why the risk is low so I understand? the shear is going to be there at least but what is lacking for our area?

I think you're misunderstanding the slight risk designation a little bit. It's actually the lowest of the categories for elevated chances of severe weather - so it's higher than normal risk, not lower. The typical chance of having severe weather within 25 miles of any given point in Central Florida tomorrow is about 2%. The forecast chance of having severe weather within 25 miles of a point in the slight risk area is about 7 times higher than that, or 15%.

[NDG]

The plane is also finding SE winds at 24.6N/88W. Evidence of a weak LLC where it was initialized in the model data. Winds very light all over. I'm sure the plane will find 30-35 kts in the convection way to the east, but I don't think this qualifies as a TD/TS so far.

I saw that too but this new LLC that we are pointing out looks stronger and so far lower pressure.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of W/WSW/WNW winds and a 1006mb pressure.


192230 2457N 08705W 9877 00169 0070 +233 +219 278005 006 010 000 00
192300 2458N 08703W 9877 00168 0069 +232 +220 250007 007 012 000 00
192330 2459N 08701W 9876 00168 0068 +231 +221 249007 008 010 000 00
192400 2459N 08659W 9881 00160 0065 +230 +221 264007 007 011 000 03
192430 2500N 08656W 9878 00161 0063 +230 +218 260007 008 013 000 00
192500 2501N 08654W 9874 00164 0062 +233 +214 249008 008 007 001 00
192530 2501N 08652W 9881 00159 0062 +230 +215 253011 013 010 001 03

[gatorcane]

The plane is also finding SE winds at 24.6N/88W. Evidence of a weak LLC where it was initialized in the model data. Winds very light all over. I'm sure the plane will find 30-35 kts in the convection way to the east, but I don't think this qualifies as a TD/TS so far.

That may be but all RECON data aside, when I loop the SAT imagery it certainly has a look of at least a TD if not a TS. Actually had the look of a TD yesterday. Certainly wouldn't call it a trough or weak low right now. I have seen TDS that have looked much worse be called TDs...

[tolakram]

Looking at the Gulf loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

The MLC appears to have been blown off to the east and a new one starting to develop. If I had to make the call my concern would be the dissipation of this LLC and a reformation further east, again.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051934
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 15 20130605
192600 2501N 08650W 9873 00165 0062 +230 +215 254015 016 013 000 00
192630 2501N 08647W 9876 00160 0060 +232 +213 245017 018 014 000 03
192700 2502N 08645W 9879 00155 0057 +240 +202 235018 018 010 001 03
192730 2503N 08642W 9873 00160 0057 +238 +207 236020 021 022 002 03
192800 2503N 08640W 9861 00163 0051 +233 +214 235024 025 024 000 00
192830 2504N 08638W 9826 00198 0052 +230 +213 229024 026 024 000 03
192900 2505N 08636W 9819 00203 0050 +229 +218 224025 026 018 001 03
192930 2505N 08633W 9827 00197 0050 +230 +220 216027 028 021 000 00
193000 2506N 08631W 9827 00193 0048 +231 +223 208028 030 024 000 03
193030 2507N 08629W 9823 00200 0049 +235 +221 196034 035 027 000 03
193100 2508N 08627W 9821 00204 0052 +234 +221 182034 035 025 002 03
193130 2509N 08626W 9827 00198 0053 +235 +220 174030 033 024 002 03
193200 2511N 08624W 9825 00203 0056 +235 +217 170029 030 022 002 03
193230 2512N 08622W 9826 00204 0059 +235 +216 170027 029 022 002 03
193300 2514N 08621W 9823 00208 0060 +235 +218 166025 027 020 002 03
193330 2515N 08620W 9824 00209 0062 +232 +219 159024 026 024 002 03
193400 2517N 08618W 9826 00208 0062 +230 +218 160024 024 028 002 03
193430 2518N 08617W 9823 00213 0064 +234 +213 159023 025 029 003 00
193500 2520N 08615W 9825 00211 0066 +230 +223 157023 024 022 002 03
193530 2521N 08614W 9824 00213 0066 +230 +223 154021 022 022 002 00
$$
;

1004.8 mb; fl lv 35 kts; sfmr 29 kts no flag

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

LLC to the east has a pressure of 1005mb

[NDG]

I see it near 25.1N & 86.5W

yeah i have it at 25.3 86.3

I have 25.4N 86.7W

I was dead on!

193000 2506N 08631W 9827 00193 0048 +231 +223 208028 030 024 000 03

[wxman57]

Plane is finding stronger SW winds near 25.1N/86.6W. 25-34 kts at FL, 20-25kts at the sfc. Indicates the eastern vortex is really there at least at flight level. Does it qualify for upgrade? Guess we'll find out in 90 min.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 051930
97779 19264 40250 86808 02100 25016 21218 /0006
42615
RMK AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 07
SWS = 13 KTS
;

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this may be one of the cases that Recon finds multiple vorticies competing together.

[CrazyC83]

Plane is flying at low levels too. Is the circulation strong enough though? I want to see the SE and SW quads...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051944
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 16 20130605
193600 2522N 08612W 9828 00211 0066 +227 +222 152021 022 020 001 03
193630 2523N 08610W 9823 00213 0066 +226 +220 157021 022 021 002 00
193700 2523N 08608W 9824 00213 0067 +228 +220 157022 022 024 000 03
193730 2523N 08606W 9824 00213 0067 +230 +220 156024 024 023 001 00
193800 2523N 08604W 9824 00214 0068 +230 +221 155024 025 022 001 00
193830 2523N 08602W 9822 00215 0068 +227 +221 153023 023 024 003 00
193900 2523N 08600W 9825 00214 0069 +230 +218 151022 023 024 002 03
193930 2523N 08558W 9827 00211 0068 +230 +220 149024 025 019 003 03
194000 2524N 08556W 9820 00220 0070 +229 +217 145028 030 025 002 03
194030 2525N 08555W 9821 00221 0072 +220 //// 135024 031 022 001 05
194100 2526N 08553W 9832 00202 0064 +218 //// 127014 021 026 006 01
194130 2527N 08552W 9782 00249 0064 +222 //// 127037 042 036 017 05
194200 2528N 08551W 9776 00250 0061 +219 //// 121043 046 039 015 01
194230 2529N 08550W 9714 00306 0064 +211 +211 122045 047 039 015 00
194300 2530N 08548W 9694 00326 0068 +211 +211 126042 047 038 014 03
194330 2531N 08547W 9703 00321 0070 +210 +210 127042 043 040 012 03
194400 2532N 08546W 9699 00328 0072 +204 //// 129040 042 039 013 05
194430 2534N 08545W 9696 00331 0072 +205 //// 129043 043 036 012 05
194500 2535N 08545W 9697 00328 0072 +207 +207 129043 044 034 010 00
194530 2537N 08544W 9700 00329 0075 +209 //// 128041 042 036 008 01
$$
;

47 kts flt lv; 39 kts sfmr - no flags

[NDG]

Plane is finding stronger SW winds near 25.1N/86.6W. 25-34 kts at FL, 20-25kts at the sfc. Indicates the eastern vortex is really there at least at flight level. Does it qualify for upgrade? Guess we'll find out in 90 min.

It also found stronger S and SSE winds as it kept going eastward.

[Aric Dunn]

plenty of Ts winds found.

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Andrea is born according to the plane.