ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SeGaBob]

Then maybe east of Bermuda.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

CMC is quite a bit faster on the 12Z than 00Z:

[LarryWx]

So, as of hour 156, the 12Z GFS is about 300 miles NE of the 0Z Euro hour 168 position! Just a little bit of disagreement.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56

UKMET now taking forever to develop this

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC more west through 96 hours also shows a little weakening

[WeatherEmperor]

So, as of hour 156, the 12Z GFS is about 300 miles NE of the 0Z Euro hour 168 position! Just a little bit of disagreement.

Great point. The Euro is so much slower. Maybe that is why it had a WNW turn at the end of its run last night because it is slower? Maybe faster means more NE???


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[Alyono]

We may be seeing why the MU is the MU with this run. That turn looks incredibly bogus

[MississippiWx]

Still going to take it over Hispaniola.

One has to doubt the GFS depiction of a Cat 5 Hurricane in the East-Central Caribbean. This is more than likely the reason for the due north movement as it is being steered at a different level. Could happen, but that raises a red flag...

[SouthFLTropics]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56

UKMET now taking forever to develop this

This might actually be realistic...History has shown us that sometimes these large gyres take some time to consolidate and get their act together. Couple that with the possibility of restricted inflow off of SA and you have the recipe for slow but steady strengthening.

[LarryWx]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56

UKMET now taking forever to develop this

And if it does take forever to get strong and track similarly to the 12Z UKMET (almost to 76W moving NW), that's very likely trouble for the CONUS, especially FL.

[StormHunter72]

Models seem to be trending North and east. Bad news for DR and Haiti but better for the CONUS. Still early in the game. As for a Cat 5 if conditions are what I am seeing it is very possible.

[LarryWx]

Models seem to be trending North and east. Bad news for DR and Haiti but better for the CONUS. Still early in the game. As for a Cat 5 if conditions are what I am seeing it is very possible.

The GFS/GEFS have but not the 0Z Euro/EPS nor the 12Z UKMET.

[SouthFLTropics]

One has to doubt the GFS depiction of a Cat 5 Hurricane in the East-Central Caribbean. This is more than likely the reason for the due north movement as it is being steered at a different level. Could happen, but that raises a red flag...

It wouldn't be the first time that the GFS has overcooked something. I agree that is why we are seeing it get pulled north so abruptly. Based on how things have developed this year as well as in recent years I think a slow and steady strengthening is more likely. Along with the fact that it is a very large gyre so it will take some time to consolidate.

[gatorcane]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56

UKMET now taking forever to develop this

And if it does take forever to get strong and track similarly to the 12Z UKMET (almost to 76W moving NW), that's very likely trouble for the CONUS, especially FL.

Seems quite a bit further west than the 00Z UKMET right?

[centuryv58]

e may be seeing why the MU is the MU with this run. That turn looks incredibly bogus

It would be one for the books if it really happens.

[gatorcane]

CMC misses Florida again to the east:

[LarryWx]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 72 12.9N 64.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 30.09.2016 84 12.5N 67.1W 1002 39
1200UTC 30.09.2016 96 11.9N 69.4W 997 47
0000UTC 01.10.2016 108 11.5N 71.4W 993 49
1200UTC 01.10.2016 120 11.8N 72.9W 1000 45
0000UTC 02.10.2016 132 11.9N 75.0W 998 38
1200UTC 02.10.2016 144 12.8N 75.7W 988 56

UKMET now taking forever to develop this

And if it does take forever to get strong and track similarly to the 12Z UKMET (almost to 76W moving NW), that's very likely trouble for the CONUS, especially FL.

Seems quite a bit further west than the 00Z UKMET right?

Yes, the 12Z UKMET is a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 0Z UKMET!

[cycloneye]

Those eastward trends are beginning to worry me here in PR.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC misses Florida again to the east:

At that timeframe and at that approach from the south it is WAY to early to feel comfortable here in Florida or the rest of the CONUS for that matter. The evolution of the shortwave is going to be HUGE!!!