ATL: LAURA - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Zero development from the 00z Euro and the 06z guidance shifted a little S and takes 98L over the land path which would keep 98L weaker/shallower and maybe more W shifts will occur. The big islands likely getting big rains, but looking like it may not be a big wind event. Obviously subject to change.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06z GFS... Back to tangled with the GA... Goes S of Of E Cuba then over W Cuba and landfalls in CGOM very weak... HP much stronger... Likely more W shifts to come IMO...
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Blown Away wrote:06z GFS... Back to tangled with the GA... Goes S of Of E Cuba then over W Cuba and landfalls in CGOM very weak... HP much stronger... Likely more W shifts to come IMO...
I think this might be a case we’re gfs and euro are to weak short term. It’s clearly on its way
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06z Icon pretty much the same track as 00z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Wednesday GFS and HWRF models going with the western side of the wave tracking further south into the Caribbean.
Kind of an important detail..
Kind of an important detail..
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SFLcane wrote:Blown Away wrote:06z GFS... Back to tangled with the GA... Goes S of Of E Cuba then over W Cuba and landfalls in CGOM very weak... HP much stronger... Likely more W shifts to come IMO...
I think this might be a case we’re gfs and euro are to weak short term. It’s clearly on its way
That might be it. Could be initializing it wrong, we’ve seen that plenty before. It looks impressive on visible. I think it’s odd that the euro did absolutely nothing with it.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Nimbus wrote:Wednesday GFS and HWRF models going with the western side of the wave tracking further south into the Caribbean.
Kind of an important detail..
Are you looking at 0z? 06z just started running
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
@ https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton
That being said, it is really weird to see the EPS like this. Feels like either the model is missing something important, or us humans are.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 26465?s=21
That being said, it is really weird to see the EPS like this. Feels like either the model is missing something important, or us humans are.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 26465?s=21
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
yeah that 00z EURO was an empty bucket. I'm no model hugger but I'd find it hard to see the Euro blowing a system this bad. 
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HMON 69 hrs approaching the islands
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
toad strangler wrote:yeah that 00z EURO was an empty bucket. I'm no model hugger but I'd find it hard to see the Euro blowing a system this bad.
I’m hoping the euro is onto something and the other models will follow suit. Euro will probably change another dozen times though as this thing goes through the motions.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06z HWRF 57hrs
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The 0z HWRF-Parent skirted the islands to the north
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06z GFS takes a very week 1007mb system into western LA. Much weaker and a few miles west
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
06z GFS heads East towards the panhandle after landfall and then decides to hop back into the gulf heading south east
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HMON 96hrs clears PR to the north but looks like it may clash with Hispaniola
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF has Cat 2 heading towards PR at 78hrs
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Good model.. just showing how favorable it will be in the Bahamas if it gets there. Cat 2 into SFL
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:Nimbus wrote:Wednesday GFS and HWRF models going with the western side of the wave tracking further south into the Caribbean.
Kind of an important detail..
Are you looking at 0z? 06z just started running
South shore of Puerto Rico for GFS..
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
84hrs HWRF showing a deepening cane heading towards the southern side of PR
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