2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS trying to light up the EPAC in just 5 days:

[Yellow Evan]

12z Euro keying in on this track for the 0/40:
https://i.imgur.com/3RXJIbo.gif
https://i.imgur.com/6bzj7Cl.png

That's not the 0/40. That's a tropical wave near 100W or so.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has 3 systems (99E, a system in between, and the 0/40.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro keying in on this track for the 0/40:
https://i.imgur.com/3RXJIbo.gif
https://i.imgur.com/6bzj7Cl.png

That's not the 0/40. That's a tropical wave near 100W or so.

The NHC's circle is quite large so it may cover it:

[Kingarabian]

Crazy how past 120W is the sweet spot so far. That's literally something you do not see in non +ENSO/+PDO/+PMM years.

[cycloneye]

Yikes, GFS goes bonkers with a parade in the next 2-3 weeks.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop later this week
several hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS develops the 0/40 and a system behind that.

[Yellow Evan]

12z Euro keying in on this track for the 0/40:
https://i.imgur.com/3RXJIbo.gif
https://i.imgur.com/6bzj7Cl.png

That's not the 0/40. That's a tropical wave near 100W or so.

The NHC's circle is quite large so it may cover it:
https://i.imgur.com/zaibd2E.png

Yeah the 0/40 is the wave near 100W looking at several days of models runs.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop during the next
few days several hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form later this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1420458814395060226

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1420469355284942858

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF showing five systems including 99E and 0/40, with in front and two behind.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has 4 systems rather than 5 in the short term but also has the deepest storm the model has spawned out in a few years.

[Kingarabian]

As unlikely as it sounds, there's potential for CPAC homebrew.



A lot going on in the EPAC for sure. All the reliable global models are in unanimous agreement for multiple TC's to form in the EPAC over the next 10-16 days.

The 12z GFS/Euro have 99E and future 90E developing in about 5 days:



Both show 99E and 90E likely becoming mature systems/hurricanes then eventually entering the CPAC.




Last but not least, a cat.5 near Mexico 288 hours:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is already @ 3-4 systems through 120 hours.

18z GFS Fuijwahara's 99E and future 90E over cooler waters.

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed several hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
continued gradual development, and a tropical depression could form
this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS014, EP, E, , , , , 75, 2021, DB, O, 2021072900, 9999999999, , 014, , , , GENESIS, , EP752021

[cycloneye]

GENESIS014, EP, E, , , , , 75, 2021, DB, O, 2021072900, 9999999999, , 014, , , , GENESIS, , EP752021

What is this? Link?