ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Looking at the big picture, look how active the EPAC is thankfully the EPAC is in overdrive which is still keeping the Atlantic and PTC 6 in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/502XYS8c/goes16-vis-swir-atlpac-wide.gif

Those EPAC systems are weak and are fighting northerly shear, their outflow is not affecting the Atlantic Basin, unfortunately.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Clear LLC on the northern edge of the convection, MLC is to the south of it so it is not stacked for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/EI6rafB.gif

IMO. there should 100% be an upgrade next advisory.

[SunnyThoughts]

Clear LLC on the northern edge of the convection, MLC is to the south of it so it is not stacked for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/EI6rafB.gif

IMO. there should 100% be an upgrade next advisory.

We will see what recon finds in a couple hours.

[StPeteMike]

Clear LLC on the northern edge of the convection, MLC is to the south of it so it is not stacked for sure.

If the LLC can manage to get the MLC stacked on top of it where it’s at, there’s a chance the circulation will go north of Hispaniola and off the Cuba coast.

[ElectricStorm]

Clear LLC on the northern edge of the convection, MLC is to the south of it so it is not stacked for sure.

If the LLC can manage to get the MLC stacked on top of it where it’s at, there’s a chance the circulation will go north of Hispaniola and off the Cuba coast.

I don't think it's got enough time to stack before interaction with the islands kicks in, which may actually help it since these weak systems don't seem to be affected much by the islands.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/53rdwrs/status/1425211074769571842

[sunnyday]

My South Florida friend just said that one of their local Mets just said that the system will head to the Gulf and be a strong tropical storm there. If he is right, S E Fl will probably dodge another bullet. I thought its path was still uncertain????

[tolakram]

Look where that MLC is.

saved loop

[alienstorm]

The LLC may be onshore by the time the plane arrives

[tolakram]

Way way north of all model inits.

[Zonacane]

There's our pulse down phase

[BobHarlem]

Looks at 18z GFS init, looks at San Juan Radar... Looks at 18z GFS Init... looks at San Juan Radar...

[storminabox]

The Atlantic may not be quite primed enough yet to allow PTC 6 to really get going (though it is way too early to say that with any certainty). It might act more as a sacrificial wave/weak storm to really get the Atlantic primed for future contenders like 95L which could prove to be far more significant. Curious to see what recon will find.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1425213856603770883

[AlphaToOmega]

PTC 06L is so close to being a tropical cyclone. Only a tiny bit of westerly flow is required to make it one, and conditions seem favorable. To me, this seems quite similar to PTC 03L (2021) in the sense that it might take a while to develop but is still very, very likely to develop.

[gatorcane]

Reminds me some of Erika 2015 as fas as approach to Florida. Some models even the Euro thought Erika would be a hurricane into South Florida but the GFS insisted a ULL near Florida would create a hostile environment and had a wave. Thankfully these ULLs have been positioned close to Florida to prevent these waves from the east to become strong (for the most part)

[SFLcane]

[Stormybajan]

Ughhhh not sure if its just me...but im having major issues right now.
"Internal server error (500)" but lets see if PTC6 can pulse again in time for recon

[tolakram]

Ughhhh not sure if its just me...but im having major issues right now.
"Internal server error (500)" but lets see if PTC6 can pulse again in time for recon

Working on a fix.

[aspen]

Ughhhh not sure if its just me...but im having major issues right now.
"Internal server error (500)" but lets see if PTC6 can pulse again in time for recon

I’ve been having it too. Good thing it’s being worked on and it’s not some device-specific issue I’m having.

Seems like that mid-level dry air is finally taking a toll on Fred’s structure. Looks like it won’t consolidate much further until it gets north of PR/DR.