Texas Summer 2022

[DallasAg]

The good news for you Oklahoma folks is the models are backing off 110+ for Oklahoma sort of, the bad news is the trend for ntx to 110+ is going up.

And suddenly the record highs for this week at DFW (most of them from 2018) look like they may be in play.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman — And a quick update...Wichita Falls has "warmed" to 110 degrees this afternoon. This is a new daily record. Old record was set in 1980. Never a good thing when you are breaking records from 1980 or 2011. #texomawx

[Yukon Cornelius]

@NWSNorman — And a quick update...Wichita Falls has "warmed" to 110 degrees this afternoon. This is a new daily record. Old record was set in 1980. Never a good thing when you are breaking records from 1980 or 2011. #texomawx

It also appears up here that July will be only the third time that a month has had every day of the month 100+.

[Brent]

I just went through the entire GFS run looking for any hope... Yeah it wasn't good not one day isn't a torch and btw day 16 is now in August

[captainbarbossa19]

I just went through the entire GFS run looking for any hope... Yeah it wasn't good not one day isn't a torch and btw day 16 is now in August

It may not look good, but an outlook 16 days out can change easily. Hoping for one of two things next month--a tropical system or a cold front that rains. Either one would be most welcome at this point. Have to be careful about the tropical system though because sometimes you get more than what you need.

[A1A]

At least the SOI index is trending down.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[Ntxw]

At least the SOI index is trending down.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

2 days of negative and 30 is creeping down some. Fingers crossed it continues!

Meanwhile FW is now forecasting 110F for DFW today.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I just went through the entire GFS run looking for any hope... Yeah it wasn't good not one day isn't a torch and btw day 16 is now in August

It may not look good, but an outlook 16 days out can change easily. Hoping for one of two things next month--a tropical system or a cold front that rains. Either one would be most welcome at this point. Have to be careful about the tropical system though because sometimes you get more than what you need.

Count me out on the tropical system. They almost never benefit NoTx, and almost always drag the ridge right back over us for the long term.

[TheHurricaneGod]

My brother lives in Austin TX and his forecast is highs around 104-107 degrees for the next week or so.

Did Earth shift closer to the sun?

[Texoz]

My brother lives in Austin TX and his forecast is highs around 104-107 degrees for the next week or so.

Did Earth shift closer to the sun?

Not surprising since the average high for Austin this July is currently at 103.5. Normal is 95.6 per NWS, and that's probably the recent 30 year cycle, which has ticked up. I would guess previous 100 year average high was 1 or 2 degrees lower.

The record for average high in ATX is of course 2011 at 102.1 degrees. The only way this July doesn't beat that record is if we get some rain, which there is none in the 7 day forecast.

[Ntxw]

DFW will be the epicenter of heat today. 86F is the lowest I saw in the readings which if holds is tied with the all time highest daily minimum. The forecast is 110F. 110F was last seen in 2011 at the airport, 111F in 2000, and 113 for the all time in 1980. Got another shot tomorrow following today. There may be a 112F somewhere in Tarrant or southern Denton counties.

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1155 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow/

Conditions are in place to bring likely some of 2022`s hottest
temperatures through tomorrow, with highs reaching to near 110
degrees both afternoons for North Texas.

Heat-related deaths are 100 percent preventable. Here`s some
actions you should take to stay safe from the heat the next couple
of days:

- Check in on friends and family. This especially includes loved
ones that belong to vulnerable populations, such as those who
are young, elderly, pregnant, or dealing with chronic illness.
These groups are less able to regulate temperatures properly, so
do your part to ensure everyone is well equipped enough to
withstand the heat safely. This means having access to air
conditioning as much as possible and plenty of water available.

- Stay hydrated and limit time spent outdoors, especially during
peak heating! Dehydration can occur quickly in these
temperatures. Drink cool water and take shaded and/or air
conditioned breaks if you have to be outside.

- Always check the back seat! NEVER leave a child or pet in a hot
car. Temperatures climb quickly, so every minute matters. If you
see a pet or a child in a car, locate the owner and/or call
9-1-1!

- Understand and be able to recognize heat-related illness signs
and symptoms. If you become concerned about yourself or someone
else, immediately move the person to a cooler area and provide
cool water. Know when to seek medical attention for heat
exhaustion or heat stroke.

Now, to the meteorology. A passing shortwave rounding the
periphery of the upper level ridge has brought some much needed
rainfall to portions of East Texas this morning. The remaining
showers have just about dissipated entirely and will do so over
the next hour. Dry air in place and subsidence dominating over
North & Central Texas will severely limit any chance for showers
and storms today, with no mentionable PoPs in the forecast.
Southwest winds will continue to veer, becoming westerly just
ahead of the surface trough currently sagging into North Texas.
Resultant temperatures will soar into the 105 to 110 degree range
across North Texas as compressional warming promotes very hot
conditions. Across Central Texas, temperatures generally up to 105
degrees are expected today and Tuesday. Heat index values will be
a few degrees within the actual air temperature today and
tomorrow as dewpoints sit in the lower/middle 50s across western
North Texas to the middle/upper 60s for Central Texas. Relative
humidity values this afternoon will drop to near 15 to 30 percent,
and across western North Texas, will only recover to around 45
percent in some areas overnight. Slightly breezier winds today
with a few gusts up to 25 mph, in combination with
ongoing/worsening drought conditions and the dangerous
temperatures, will result in elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions through tomorrow. Take extra caution this week
to prevent wildfires. Do not toss any lit cigarettes, drive/park
over tall grass, or burn unnecessarily.

Temperatures will drop into the mid 70s to mid 80s overnight, and
climb again to similar temperatures as today on Tuesday. South
winds will take back over the entire forecast area as the weak
trough retreats northward. Prolonged exposure to this type of
heat, especially with little relief overnight, greatly increases
the risk of developing heat-related illnesses. It cannot be
emphasized enough, please take every precaution possible to help
you and your loved ones stay safe during this time.

[Iceresistance]

Heat warning for basically all of Oklahoma, the high is expected to be 99°F (What?), but tomorrow is looking incredibly nasty, the high is expected to be 109°F. I may need to bring in my outside cats for a little bit. But I haven’t decided on that part yet.

[Iceresistance]

At least the SOI index is trending down.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

2 days of negative and 30 is creeping down some. Fingers crossed it continues!

Meanwhile FW is now forecasting 110F for DFW today.

Monthly average is crashing, is was at +15 just 6 days ago, now it’s at +11.65.

[Ntxw]

At least the SOI index is trending down.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

2 days of negative and 30 is creeping down some. Fingers crossed it continues!

Meanwhile FW is now forecasting 110F for DFW today.

Monthly average is crashing, is was at +15 just 6 days ago, now it’s at +11.65.

I wouldn't say crashing but the past week or so has seen less extremely positives and a couple of negatives to help come down from the very high near record levels. The bad news is the Nina is gaining strength now that we are gradually shifting into a favorable season (moving into late summer and early Fall) for ENSO progression. As in an earlier post before below the surface is catching up to the cooling.

[Ntxw]

Latest temps around 2pm. A couple of 108s including Denton DTO. Jacksboro 110F. DFW 104F but between readings had a 106F.

[captainbarbossa19]

The good news is that sunset is getting earlier and sunrise later every day now. At my location, sunset is 8:18 now but was 8:22 a couple weeks ago. By August 1, it will be 8:10 and losing 1 minute of daylight or more in the evening per day. About the time most people really start noticing it, the tropics pick up fast.

[Iceresistance]

Burneyville, OK (West of Marietta) reached 109°F today

NWS now has a forecast of 110°F tomorrow, this is really bad.

EDIT: But! There is hope! The hundreds may disappear next week, only if the cold front that is forecasted at that time period gets there.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Yay! Made it to 110 for the second time this month. Looks to be around 115 tomorrow!

[Ntxw]

109F so far at DFW.

GOES East imagery shows some recent wildfires that have burned to the west/southwest of the metroplex. Also a fairly large one in SE Texas near Huntsville.

[Texas Snowman]

North Texas Regional Airport (just west of Denison) made it to 108 today. Forecast is for 110 tomorrow.

Wxman 57, perfect bike riding weather, right?