Texas Spring 2026

[lukem]

Well the night was very busy out here. We finished the night with 6.11 inches of rain, with 3inches of that in just 40 minutes.

Where are you in relation to Albany? We got around 4.5 inches on 601 by North Prong.

[wxman22]

Growing support from the CAM's for supercells developing along the dryline Tuesday. I think an Enhanced risk is coming if the trend continues.

[CaptinCrunch]

West and South Texas were the winners, even the forecast for Monday and Tuesday has quickly went down to no better than 20% chance of any type of precip, and the later half the week dropped from 50-60% to at best 40% Wednesday night and 20% Thursday and Friday.

[wxman22]

[Fifty Rock]

Well the night was very busy out here. We finished the night with 6.11 inches of rain, with 3inches of that in just 40 minutes.

Where are you in relation to Albany? We got around 4.5 inches on 601 by North Prong.

Midway between Albany and Moran. Also had some large tree branches down.

[wxman22]

[869MB]

 https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/2043363273047708117




Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121617Z - 122217Z

Summary...Increasing potential for flash flooding this afternoon
as thunderstorms containing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates develop in the
next 2-3 hours and congeal into an MCS. Locally significant flash
flooding is possible, especially atop sensitive urban areas in the
region.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are showing increased
development across South-Central Texas late this morning as a very
moist airmass continues to destabilize. An intense, localized
cluster of thunderstorms near Gonzales county recently exhibited
2.5-3"/hr rainfall rates according to MRMS and KEWX. When combined
with slow forward motions around 20 kts, a corridor of FFG
exceedance was noted over the last 15 minutes.

These early storms are tapping into a very favorable environment
for efficient heavy rainfall production; 12Z RAOB from BRO and
ACARS profiles from AUS and SAT depict a deep moist layer from the
surface to 750 mb (PWAT of 1.7-1.8"), tall instability profiles
characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and WBZ heights over
3500 m. An inversion above the moist layer has thus far suppressed
more widespread development, although this is expected to weaken
over time as large scale ascent strengthens over the next few
hours while the column continues to moisten.

As such, thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage and
intensity over the next few hours. By 17-18z, the 12z CAM suite is
in good agreement for this activity to congeal into an MCS
containing training thunderstorms along a NE-SW axis -- possibly
along a remnant cold pool evident in surface obs. Forecast Corfidi
vectors near 10 kts suggest this complex will be quite slow to
move once it develops, in turn lengthening the residence time of
2-3"/hr rainfall rates within the strongest individual cells.
While the area has been dry according to NASA SPoRT soil moisture
percentiles, the risk of flash flooding is expected to increase
over the next 6 hours as 3-6" fall in the main axis of training.
Significant flash flooding is possible should this fall over a
sensitive urban area.

Asherman

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

[ElectricStorm]

Don't like today at all for dryline development up here. Subsidence behind the shortwave that came through this morning combined with very little forcing with the trough back west will likely lead to very little action, if any. Tomorrow is also very conditional but does look a little better than today. Tuesday has been the main day for a while now as the trough finally moves through.

Friday also is looking interesting but it's a ways out so will likely change as usual.

[rwfromkansas]

DFW now gone from slight risk. Shocker lol

[TomballEd]

DFW now gone from slight risk. Shocker lol

OTOH, HRRR shows some marginally severe hail well NW to N of Houston, maybe our Aggie friends get some. Maybe an isolated hailer near San Antonio.

[txtwister78]

DFW now gone from slight risk. Shocker lol

OTOH, HRRR shows some marginally severe hail well NW to N of Houston, maybe our Aggie friends get some. Maybe an isolated hailer near San Antonio.

https://i.imgur.com/6SJiu6G.png

Models are all over the place. Lots of uncertainty due to leftover boundaries from storms overnight so looking at models today (even hi-res) won't offer much help.

Do think area to watch will obviously be SC TX from SA to Austin region later this afternoon into evening for development.

[txtwister78]

And after my post...Storms are in fact beginning to develop across SC TX and specifically the San Antonio metro as temps climb into the low 80's

[Ntxw]

I know we're all looking for rain but man, that Cat 5 sub 900mbar 150 kt+ super typhoon (in April!) is amazing to look at out in the west Pacific. Just kind of shows the precursors to setting up the strong-super El Nino to come.

[wxman22]

I love to see that this pattern is delivering on some much needed rainfall.

[txtwister78]

RRFS (if correct) and it seems to be doing a much better job today than HRRR says not done yet over the SA metro/SC TX region. Has severe storms with very heavy rain developing after 6PM.

Would obviously increase the flash flood threat.

[TomballEd]

3rd day in a row more rain than models and NWS forecast in Spring ISD/Houston mailing address. The opposite is almost always true.

I take. Severe warning polygon just a few miles N of my house. 1 inch hail is radar indicated.

[Stratton23]

Love seeing the rain, but its making for very miserable driving conditions

[Cpv17]

Love seeing the rain, but its making for very miserable driving conditions

It’s mostly been missing me, but I’ve still managed to pick up about an inch and a half over the past week or so. Gladly take it.

[TomballEd]

Love seeing the rain, but its making for very miserable driving conditions

It’s mostly been missing me, but I’ve still managed to pick up about an inch and a half over the past week or so. Gladly take it.

Off and on rain since late this afternoon. Another t-storm going on now but unless something forms behind it that'll be it. Lawn is very grateful.

[cstrunk]

1.84" today and we may get some more overnight.