Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[sma10]

sma10....looks like some ridging is suddenly coming into play. What do you think about that?

I think Helene will be the storm of 2006.....just my feeling.

I'm assuming you mean ridging down the road, gator?

Obviously, there's no question that Helene is under the influence of solid ridging right now, and will be for the next couple of days.

I honestly feel that in the short term (the next 3 days or so) Gordon will be the most important factor. How much does Gordon dent Helene's ridge? How far north is Helene when she starts to slow down this weekend?

As for down the road (part of MWatkins' post) I'm going to withhold judgment until there is more model consensus. I still find it hard to fathom this storm making the entire journey, but we'll know more in the next few days.

Edit: After having looked at most of the 00Z models tonight I don't see anything has changed as there is still a decided turn to the north well east of the islands. I have not seen the Nogaps, but it seems to me it must be an outlier right now.

[gatorcane]

well sma10 I would have to agree realistically, if it made the journey WOW. I think it will be the storm of 2006 because it could become quite a major hurricane - but honestly to make it all the way across the Atlantic would be amazing.

[SouthFloridawx]

well sma10 I would have to agree realistically, if it made the journey WOW. I think it will be the storm of 2006 because it could become quite a major hurricane - but honestly to make it all the way across the Atlantic would be amazing.

The trough behind the one currently in the Eastern US is not one that you could say, "well maybe Helene will miss the trough if it moves continually westward". We're talking about a here you go Helene you are getting booted no matter your position. This trough should destroy the ridge as it comes through.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok here is an example:

Here is a shot of the Current Trough and 500mb.





Here is the trough we're talking about later down the road and only 5 days away... Compare that to 500mb Above and you will see what I'm talking about.



Even if Helene misses the Current one she is doomed by the next to have a burial at sea. However she may be a Beauty before she goes.

P.S. serve me up some crow if i'm wrong BTW.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Morning visible imagery reveals that Helene moved more quickly than forecast overnight. I can see what looks like the center near 14N/36W, about 60 miles ahead of hte NHC estimation and a bit farther north. It appears to be on track though a little north of the track. Still looks like no threat to land.
All guidance shows recurvature around 50W. If anything, guidance shifted slightly farther east indicating a quicker recurvature overnight.

Oh, and look behind Helene....

[Bgator]

I still see the center at around 13.5 at the low edge of that swirl...Im sure there are many vortices in there!

[wxman57]

Try this image, I think it's pretty obvious where the center is:

[Normandy]

^^ I dont think is is fair to assume that dry spot as the center, because honestly I see a much larger circulation that spans from 15N to 12 N

[wxman57]

^^ I dont think is is fair to assume that dry spot as the center, because honestly I see a much larger circulation that spans from 15N to 12 N

That could be true, I'll be at the office in an hour with more tools at my disposal. In any case, it changes little. Helene will not be any threat to land.

[caribepr]

Helene will not be any threat to land.

From your keyboard to Helene's ear

[Mac]

Helene will not be any threat to land.

From your keyboard to Helene's ear

Seems unlikely to me we can locate her ear, given that we can't even locate where her eye should be at this point. Helene is like Mrs. Potato Head from hell.

[HomesteadHoney]

Is Helene considered a Cape Verde storm since she formed:

"NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST OR ABOUT 565
MILES...910 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS."

I believe NOAA gives a 600 mile radius from the islands to call them Cape Verde storms. This appears to fall into that catagory.

I am loving all the activity in the Tropics. I have plenty to talk about with my 7th and 8th graders in our 6 week long "Troubled Tropics" class! Just give me one annular fish before it's over please !

[cycloneye]

Is Helene considered a Cape Verde storm since she formed:

"NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST OR ABOUT 565
MILES...910 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS."

I believe NOAA gives a 600 mile radius from the islands to call them Cape Verde storms. This appears to fall into that catagory.

I am loving all the activity in the Tropics. I have plenty to talk about with my 7th and 8th graders in our 6 week long "Troubled Tropics" class! Just give me one annular fish before it's over please !

If any system forms east of 40w it's considered a CV storm and Helene is in that category.

[hurricanetrack]

As they say, "the question is moot". Look west of 70 for the remainder of the season- the reality is that nothing is getting from the Cape Verdes to any point west of 70 from here on out. It is my opinion, looking at the long range models, that any chance of a landfall in the U.S. or surrounding island nations will have to come from close in. It does not take much to come to that logical conclusion seeing at how "ridgeless" the Atlantic is and will continue to be.

[sma10]

As they say, "the question is moot". Look west of 70 for the remainder of the season- the reality is that nothing is getting from the Cape Verdes to any point west of 70 from here on out. It is my opinion, looking at the long range models, that any chance of a landfall in the U.S. or surrounding island nations will have to come from close in. It does not take much to come to that logical conclusion seeing at how "ridgeless" the Atlantic is and will continue to be.

Agree wholeheartedly.

Western Caribbean/Gulf in October is the place to look this year for any land threats. However, there is still a chance for maybe 2 or 3 more early recurvers to form from Africa.

[hurricanetrack]

Oh yeah, I agree we will see more action out near the Cape Verdes- it's just looking like one of those years when nothing will get past "The Wall". One must sneak under the wall this time....and who knows what could lie on the other side of that wall....trouble? Not much more than another Alberto? We'll see. Time is a tickin'

[bjackrian]

Helene will not be any threat to land.

From your keyboard to Helene's ear

Seems unlikely to me we can locate her ear, given that we can't even locate where her eye should be at this point. Helene is like Mrs. Potato Head from hell.

Looking at they system following, they look big enough and close enough to each other that they could end up fighting. If that happened are we more likely to end up with two weak storms, or would one storm more likely win-->one strong storm and one weak/dissipated storm?

[Nimbus]

Helene looks like a giant tumbleweed this morning. The official forecast has her moving quite rapidly west at 22 MPH and they have again adjusted the official track further left.

The subtropical ridge continues to build south of Gordon as he gains latitude a little quicker than forecast. Obviously the forecast trough will not have to dig much to pick him up.

Between the SAL and the faster forward speed of Helene I don't think she is going to spin up as quickly as the models thought. Her outflow is symmetric and I don't see the usual signs of shear that you would expect from a weakness to her west?

If the above trends continue I see more left corrections to the official track.

All the pro mets seem to be tracking north of 20n 55w, so i'm looking for crow recipes.

[cycloneye]

Oh yeah, I agree we will see more action out near the Cape Verdes- it's just looking like one of those years when nothing will get past "The Wall". One must sneak under the wall this time....and who knows what could lie on the other side of that wall....trouble? Not much more than another Alberto? We'll see. Time is a tickin'

Mark,in other words,no work of chasing for you and Jesse unless a homegrown system forms in the Caribbean or GOM