SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is a weird morning out there. IAH had been down to 37F earlier, but have now risen up to 42F. Meanwhile, Hooks is hovering around 34-35F and Conroe is below freezing at 31F. My thermometer continues to hover around 33-34F. Temperatures are pretty much all over the place out there.

[KatDaddy]

For the next weather event for SE TX you can check the League City weather from any of the 3 weather websites I created which are connected to my wireless Vantage Pro console.

http://www.flanakins.com/welcome.html
http://www.flanakins.com/weatherWV001.html
http://www.flanakins.com/

[Ed Mahmoud]

Here in HOU, on the cool side of a weak front, only upper 50s to near 60ºF (16ºC), but a little disturbance seen here may be on the WV loop just enough for a strong to low end severe storm.

SPC SWODY1

[jasons2k]

Looks like an intersting day ahead.

Another sign of spring: I noticed that a lot of trees are already starting to bud out

[vbhoutex]

Could be interesting! Unless the disturbance bypasses us to the North and doesn't drag anything through our area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Could be interesting! Unless the disturbance bypasses us to the North and doesn't drag anything through our area.

Seeing some breaks of sun here at the Galleria. Low 70s now.

RUC suggests some storms

Looks marginal for severe storms.

A few heavy showers on radar loop, but nothing too amazing.

[jasons2k]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0198.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111934Z - 112130Z

CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL REGION
MAY POSE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY
REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TX COASTAL REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN GENERALLY
INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SOME DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...AND WITH UPPER VORT MAX NOW CROSSING S TX PER LATEST WV
IMAGERY...CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
TO EXIST.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A FEW RELATIVELY VIGOROUS
MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME. WHILE MARGINAL HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT...A LOCALLY-STRONGER GUST OR TWO
MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS.

..GOSS.. 02/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[southerngale]

Maybe my house will get skipped. I need more days of sun to dry my yard. The high spots are much better... the area where I need to replace my sidewalk is still too moist. *sigh*

Oh well... whatcha gonna do?

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
156 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-120800-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
156 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE...AS RICH BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR RIDES IN ON
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS. OUR AREA IS BEING PRIMED FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE BASIC INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER...NAMELY
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIFT.

THE FINAL INGREDIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
ORGANIZE INTO LINES...FIRST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN MARCH EAST...AND EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ALSO...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR COULD FLOOD LOW SPOTS ON THE ROAD.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Radar starting to light up this afternoon as Mexican short wave approaches. Per SPC mesodisc weather watch may be needed if radar trends continue to evolve.

Current activity extends across northern Calhoun into Victoria counties NE into Jackson and Wharton counties with recent development into Fort Bend and SW Harris County. Lift is increasing across the area as short wave impinges on moistening air mass. Per SPC 1000am update of Day 1 outlook the entire region has been upgraded to a slight risk of severe for this afternoon and this evening. In fact latest radar sweeps out of KHGX and KCRP show fair decent storm structures over Jackson and Victoria counties with borderline severe hail possible within these cells.

Given radar trends will likely see greater than 50% coverage this afternoon with showers/thunderstorms onsetting within the next 1-2 hours. Cap has weakened as expected with modest daytime heating, lift, and moistening of the low layers and coverage should continue to increase over the next few hours. Main threat this afternoon is large hail.

Tuesday:

Severe threat looks decent on Tuesday as frontal boundary approaches from the NW. All signs point toward a linear MCS developing over NC TX after 06Z (midnight) tonight and moving ESE to SE while backbuilding to the SW into C TX. GFS is aggressive with strong squall line/MCS…some of this may be how much moisture is left behind the lead short wave this afternoon. At this time all indications point to enough moisture remaining…however I have seen mesoscale events before rob much moisture ahead of the “main event” and in the end nothing or little is able to form. We will have to see how this afternoon’s system affects the environment for Tuesday.

End of the week still looks like a hugh mess with massive upper trough to assault the state.

[Extremeweatherguy]

storms starting to pop in western Harris county with some purple returns beginning to appear on radar...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

[jasons2k]

Cells along Katy Fwy. corridor are getting strong and fast!

[Extremeweatherguy]

cell south of Jersey Village is now sporting a radar-indicated 70% chance of non-severe hail. It also appears to possibly be moving toward my general location...possibly staying just to my west...if it grows though, then things could get interesting.

[srainhoutx]

cell south of Jersey Village is now sporting a radar-indicated 70% chance of non-severe hail. It also appears to possibly be moving toward my general location...possibly staying just to my west...if it grows though, then things could get interesting.

Keep an eye on V2, Extreme. That one is getting stronger by the minute and should pass over my location.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Overall, I do not see anything too potent out there this afternoon. There may be a few strong to severe pockets through the evening, but I really think that tomorrow morning will end up being our main event. The severe potential will probably be much higher along the incoming front than it is this afternoon.

In the short term - the storm to my south appears to be weakening some as it lifts northward. The hail potential seems to have greatly diminished.

[Bunkertor]

Someone an idea what´s wrong with noaa.gov ?

[JenBayles]

bunkertor, I experienced outages with the site as well, and it seems to be OK now. They appeared to have difficulties when they were updating the forecasts for HWO, Short Term Forecast and pops for tomorrow.

I managed to get some pre-emergent herbicide down on my lawn this morning along with feeding and pruning my many rose bushes, and this rain is perfect for my plant needs. We got a regular "frog floater" around 4:00, but it didn't last too long. I'm really enjoy the showers with some thunder rumbling around. Yes! Life is finally returning! Then again, after reading the discussion this morning regarding Friday's anticipated event, it appears winter hasn't quite given up yet...

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is some good purple lightning bolts out there right now with loud thunder claps.

[southerngale]

So far, no rain over here.
We're getting some work done outside... a lot of dirt hauled and spread where the new sidewalk will be. We won't be able to finish before it rains tomorrow (still crossing fingers that it doesn't get here), but hopefully we'll be able to get some plastic down or something tonight so we can get to the car in the driveway. We can't walk through the mud! I know everyone wanted an update... lol.

[jasons2k]

Amazingly persistent supercell moving into Brazoria...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Amazingly persistent supercell moving into Brazoria...

yeah, that storm is like the energizer bunny. Surprisingly though, it currently does not have a warning out for it. I am baffled! The radar is indicating a 90% chance of severe hail with a maximum size of 1.5" in diameter associated with that storm. The last time I checked, that kind of hail signature on radar is more than enough to warrant a T-storm warning...especially since it has been so persistent.