Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[skysummit]

12z Euro..around Houma, southeast Louisiana...

That's yesterday's 12z.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro..around Houma, southeast Louisiana...

That's yesterday's 12z.

Well crap, when is todays going to be out?

[skysummit]

12z Euro..around Houma, southeast Louisiana...

That's yesterday's 12z.

Well crap, when is todays going to be out?

Around 2:30pm CDT...give or take a few minutes.

[Ivanhater]

Ah ok, thanks

[southerngale]

No more 25 page limit, so the threads have been combined.

[RL3AO]

No more 25 page limit, so the threads have been combined.

I think they split them because this isn't active storms.

[bigGbear]

No more 25 page limit, so the threads have been combined. :)

What's the record for the most posts prior to an invest?

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TPC Discussion.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DOMINATING FEATURE OF THE WRN ATLC IS THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N72W AND CONTINUES TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. THIS...IN ADDITION TO ITS SUPPORTING MID TO
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 72W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAVE USHERED IN
SOME PLEASANT...FALL-LIKE WEATHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS S OF 26N BETWEEN 73W-79W. SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED
IN THIS REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ADDED AS A TROUGH ON THE
1800 UTC MAP.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE NOW WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR
THE SE BAHAMAS...WHICH MAY BE THE NRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE THAT
HAS FRACTURED. WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE THIS AS A TROUGH ON THE
1800 UTC MAP.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[skysummit]

[Ed Mahmoud]

UK Met on board for a Louisiana or Texas weekend event.



Oddly enough, UK Met Office tropical text product doesn't show a developing cyclone.

[PTrackerLA]

There appears to be a broad low-level circulation in the Bahamas currently, check out the visible loops.

[MiamiensisWx]

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DOMINATING FEATURE OF THE WRN ATLC IS THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N72W AND CONTINUES TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. THIS...IN ADDITION TO ITS SUPPORTING MID TO
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 72W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAVE USHERED IN
SOME PLEASANT...FALL-LIKE WEATHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS S OF 26N BETWEEN 73W-79W. SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED
IN THIS REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ADDED AS A TROUGH ON THE
1800 UTC MAP.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE NOW WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR
THE SE BAHAMAS...WHICH MAY BE THE NRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE THAT
HAS FRACTURED. WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE THIS AS A TROUGH ON THE
1800 UTC MAP.

2:05 p.m. EDT TWD

The TPC has confirmed my thoughts about a sfc trough in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The northern portion of the Caribbean wave has split, which may indicate the first steps toward consolidation and a sfc low. I have a suspicion that we will see more convection develop over the next 24 hours, especially when the sfc trough and 850 mbar (low-level) vorticity interacts with the meso low off NE Florida (Jacksonville-Cape Canaveral) and stalled frontal boundary to the N. This scenario could be an interesting competition: who will develop? Right now, I'm leaning toward the Bahamas, since it could become better defined when the diurnal maximum takes its place. The NE Florida circulation (off Titusville) appears to be a mid-level circulation; the system isn't "decoupling" from the front; and pressures are high (~1017 mbar).

I'm focused on the Bahamas, IMO. I agree with skysummit.

[skysummit]

I'm jumping on your bandwagon MiamiensisWx. To me this looks to be the primary area of focus now for cyclone formation....whether it be just off the southeast Florida coast or in the Gulf.

[tgenius]

So this looks to bring some rain by Miami? I'm all for it, it's been somewhat dry in my part of town for a couple of weeks.

[southerngale]

No more 25 page limit, so the threads have been combined.

I think they split them because this isn't active storms.

No, they weren't split. A new thread was started after 25 pages and the old one was locked. That wasn't necessary as we have decided not to have a 25 page limit, so I merged the threads.

No more 25 page limit, so the threads have been combined.

What's the record for the most posts prior to an invest?

I'm not sure, but I think it's a lot more than this. Maybe someone will have time to search that if this gets much longer.

[serenityjp]

So this looks to bring some rain by Miami? I'm all for it, it's been somewhat dry in my part of town for a couple of weeks.

Here is my local

000
FXUS62 KMLB 171451
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT...

A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES THIS
MORNING JUST OFFSHORE NE FL ASSOCD WITH LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THESE REGIMES TYPICALLY PRODUCE A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...IN THIS CASE ALG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COASTLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ALG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF NE WINDS WHICH BASED ON CURRENT SFC
OBS APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE UPPER VOLUSIA COAST.

LONG LOOP OF NWS MLB DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES A MESO LOW
DEVELOPED BEFORE SUNRISE OVER NE FL AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
VOLUSIA COAST. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS AWAY THIS SHOULD AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY GIVE COASTAL VOLUSIA A RESPITE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN OF
THIS MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE COAST AS NE WINDS DEVELOP
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENT & SOUTH BREVARD IN THE SHORT
TERM...SPREADING INLAND WITH TIME.

DEEP NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...STRONGER NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ALG THE VOLUSIA COAST WITH GRADIENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY NE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTN...MOST NOTABLE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEGMENT WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGAN AT 10 AM. GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN AND NEAR STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH LEG AS WELL.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 73 83 72 / 50 30 50 40
MCO 88 72 86 71 / 40 30 40 30
MLB 85 75 84 72 / 40 30 50 40
VRB 86 73 85 72 / 40 30 50 40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH
OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH
BEACH OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY


This one is for you, new one should be coming out soon.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 171419
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS IN GOOD SHAPE
AT THIS TIME.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHERE PREVAILING NORTHEAST
FLOW IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH STEERING FLOW ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE INTERIOR. DATA FROM THE 17/12Z
KMFL RAOB CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER IN THE MID-
LEVELS...WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA.

OVERALL...WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDDED ELEMENTS
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND AND SKY
CONDITION. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW, ALBEIT WEAK, WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. THEREFORE, VCSH UNTIL
14Z WITH VCTS THEREAFTER WITH AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY. ANY CELL
HOWEVER WILL TEND TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST LESS THAN 15 MINUTES. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO MOVE WEST AND VCTS IN KAPF TAF AFTER 17Z
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ALOFT...A BREAK DEVELOPS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH FLA IN A COL BETWEEN THE GREAT PLAINS AND
ATLC HIGH PRES CELLS. BY LATE TUES...AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIB N TO OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST U.S. COAST
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING E OF CENTRAL FLA OVER THE ATLC.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES DIFFUSE NEAR LAKE OKEE
WHILE THE BUILDING HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE E U.S...COMBINED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE CARIB NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...PRODUCES A
SUSTAINED NE WIND FLOW. THEN THINGS BECOME MUDDLED FROM WED ON. NAM
BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY TOWARD S FLA AND OVER THE S CENTRAL
COAST BY THU MORN WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SW
COAST. THIS CHANGES STEERING FLOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ENE WIND FLOW IN
MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN TYPICAL S FLA PRECIP PATTERN OF
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY ATLC/E COAST AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WITH
DIURNAL MAINLY INTERIOR AND W ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SUN...IF GFS RIGHT...UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO GULF AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PULLED OVER S FLA
LEADING TO COPIUS RAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH W
AND HIGH PRES REBUILDS ALOFT OVER S FLA TO MITIGATE RAINFALL. IF
NAM TREND CONTINUES...WITH UPPER LOW OVER S FLA...E COAST MAY SEE
MORE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN WED DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS W
COAST AS AREA WOULD BE UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER LOW. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE POPS W INTO LATTER PART OF WEEK
WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING UP FROM THE CARIB OVER S FLA. AT THIS
JUNCTURE WILL LEAVE EXTENDED POPS ALONE UNTIL UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVEMENT DISCERNED.

MARINE...AGAIN MODELS AGREE ON NE WIND FLOW TODAY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS FLOW ABOUT BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ALONG E
U.S. AND INVERTED TROUGH TO THE E. FROM WED ON...DISPARITY AGAIN
RAISES ITS FICKLE HEAD. NAM DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ON INVERTED
TROUGH AND MOVES SYSTEM N WHILE GFS MOVES INVERTED TROUGH W WITH A
LOW FORMING OFF THE SW FLA COAST THU. NEEDLESS TO SAY WINDS BECOME
FICKLE AS WELL. SEEING THAT SOME OTHER MODELS AGREE WITH GFS
SCENARIO...WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND. THUS...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT BECOMING VARIABLE TO GENERALLY SE WED THROUGH
FRI. GULF STEEAM SEAS MAY KICK UP TO 4 FEET IN CONTINUED NE FLOW
MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 87 75 / 40 30 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 80 86 75 / 40 30 50 30
MIAMI 91 79 89 76 / 40 30 50 30
NAPLES 91 75 88 72 / 50 30 40 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

It looks like NOGAPS develop it not from off Floridas coast but from the SE GOM.But is weak in this run.

[JonathanBelles]

This is what I am seeing or think to be seeing.

[Sanibel]

Overland surface center by Ocala still evident.

[Sanibel]

I can't see any turning on satellite loop.