Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

this is getting ridiculous.. if the 21z hrrr verifies, it will catch alot of people off guard.

Is it for the DFW airport area?

[Ntxw]

this is getting ridiculous.. if the 21z hrrr verifies, it will catch alot of people off guard.

I would be wary about hi resolution models and their tendencies to over do QPF. That saying, again like this morning, this storm is going negative tilt and will have a deformation band (comma shape head). It is under these type of systems that air above rapidly cools and you can get some crazy convection bands. The way it ejects supports this idea which is where it differs from other systems that have been sheared and are too far north or south of the cold region (warm nose because there is no strong 5h low aloft to cool the atmosphere) this year. Slight changes in position can significantly change an areas conditions (blizzard of 09 example). Get under the deformation band and you can go wild.

[TrekkerCC]

this is getting ridiculous.. if the 21z hrrr verifies, it will catch alot of people off guard.

Is it for the DFW airport area?

On the 1km simulated reflectivity on the HRRR (latest 22z run) you see the precipitation organizing out west and pushing in around 13z (or it would be by 7am or so). As noted in other posts, it's going to start as cold rain or, if the temperature is below freezing, freezing rain and transition to sleet (possible), and, very unlikely but possible, snow. The band on the HRRR does look intense, but it again comes down to the temperatures as the precipitation comes down. If it cools off quickly tonight and cold air advection reinforces the cold, it could quickly become a mess in the DFW area, or if the temperatures are warmer than expected, then DFW might receive a needed but only cold rain. It is really one of these "borderline" events.

For all you snow/winter weather lovers, do know that we have the promising late week event that might produce even if this one doesn't.

[JonnySnowStorm]

Hey guys! I've been lurking around this forum for quite some time. As you should be able to tell, I am a huge winter weather fanatic. I am excited about our potential "event" tomorrow, but I am worried that my area (Denton County) will get little more than light freezing drizzle. Do you think Denton county has a possibility of seeing some snow accumulation?

edit: I see ^... I guess we'll just have to observe the skies tomorrow.

[TrekkerCC]

Hey guys! I've been lurking around this forum for quite some time. As you should be able to tell, I am a huge winter weather fanatic. I am excited about our potential "event" tomorrow, but I am worried that my area (Denton County) will get little more than light freezing drizzle. Do you think Denton county has a possibility of seeing some snow accumulation?

Welcome to the boards! Denton, TX is going to get freezing rain and likely transition into sleet quickly. Whether it transitions to snow, it is possible in your area. The atmospheric column should cool enough for snow appear at some point. It might be as the precipitation is ending. Now, when we have DFW winter weather events, usually Denton becomes a magnet for accumulations (sleet, snow, etc), of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of what will occur tomorrow, but I think you might catch a glimpse of the white stuff.

[SouthernMet]

Hey guys! I've been lurking around this forum for quite some time. As you should be able to tell, I am a huge winter weather fanatic. I am excited about our potential "event" tomorrow, but I am worried that my area (Denton County) will get little more than light freezing drizzle. Do you think Denton county has a possibility of seeing some snow accumulation?

edit: I see ^... I guess we'll just have to observe the skies tomorrow.

light freezing drizzle? i recommend you to go the nws website to check out your latest forecast. They are calling for enough ice to cause problems and up to 2 inches of snow on top of that. (for now)

[JonnySnowStorm]

Hey guys! I've been lurking around this forum for quite some time. As you should be able to tell, I am a huge winter weather fanatic. I am excited about our potential "event" tomorrow, but I am worried that my area (Denton County) will get little more than light freezing drizzle. Do you think Denton county has a possibility of seeing some snow accumulation?

Welcome to the boards! Denton, TX is going to get freezing rain and likely transition into sleet quickly. Whether it transitions to snow, it is possible in your area. The atmospheric column should cool enough for snow appear at some point. It might be as the precipitation is ending. Now, when we have DFW winter weather events, usually Denton becomes a magnet for accumulations (sleet, snow, etc), of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of what will occur tomorrow, but I think you might catch a glimpse of the white stuff.

Thanks for the info! I guess any sighting of snow will do for me. I honestly wasn't expecting much for this time of the year.

[JonnySnowStorm]

Hey guys! I've been lurking around this forum for quite some time. As you should be able to tell, I am a huge winter weather fanatic. I am excited about our potential "event" tomorrow, but I am worried that my area (Denton County) will get little more than light freezing drizzle. Do you think Denton county has a possibility of seeing some snow accumulation?

edit: I see ^... I guess we'll just have to observe the skies tomorrow.

light freezing drizzle? i recommend you to go the nws website to check out your latest forecast. They are calling for enough ice to cause problems and up to 2 inches of snow on top of that. (for now)

Yeah... I like to take the conservative approach. Historically, when I get my hopes up, my area gets nothing. I did see that nws forecast though. I'm just not buying into it 100% yet.

[weatherguy425]

this is getting ridiculous.. if the 21z hrrr verifies, it will catch alot of people off guard.

I would be wary about hi resolution models and their tendencies to over do QPF. That saying, again like this morning, this storm is going negative tilt and will have a deformation band (comma shape head). It is under these type of systems that air above rapidly cools and you can get some crazy convection bands. The way it ejects supports this idea which is where it differs from other systems that have been sheared and are too far north or south of the cold region (warm nose because there is no strong 5h low aloft to cool the atmosphere) this year. Slight changes in position can significantly change an areas conditions (blizzard of 09 example). Get under the deformation band and you can go wild.

Yeah, and if looking at the simulated reflectivity, there are obviously some convective feedback or even P-Type issues going on.. skewing amounts.

[TheProfessor]

Hey guys! I've been lurking around this forum for quite some time. As you should be able to tell, I am a huge winter weather fanatic. I am excited about our potential "event" tomorrow, but I am worried that my area (Denton County) will get little more than light freezing drizzle. Do you think Denton county has a possibility of seeing some snow accumulation?

Welcome to the boards! Denton, TX is going to get freezing rain and likely transition into sleet quickly. Whether it transitions to snow, it is possible in your area. The atmospheric column should cool enough for snow appear at some point. It might be as the precipitation is ending. Now, when we have DFW winter weather events, usually Denton becomes a magnet for accumulations (sleet, snow, etc), of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of what will occur tomorrow, but I think you might catch a glimpse of the white stuff.

A glimpse is ok. But I think 3-5 inches is better! Any way my temp is down to 43 degrees, and only 11 more degrees to go!

[Tammie]

Pete Delkus just posted on Facebook that freezing temps won't hit DFW until 2-4 tomorrow afternoon and little to no frozen precip is expected. Can anyone verify if he's accurate with that forecast?

[iorange55]

Pete Delkus just posted on Facebook that freezing temps won't hit DFW until 2-4 tomorrow afternoon and little to no frozen precip is expected. Can anyone verify if he's accurate with that forecast?

Yeah, I can...at 4pm tomorrow.

[SouthernMet]

this is getting ridiculous.. if the 21z hrrr verifies, it will catch alot of people off guard.

I would be wary about hi resolution models and their tendencies to over do QPF. That saying, again like this morning, this storm is going negative tilt and will have a deformation band (comma shape head). It is under these type of systems that air above rapidly cools and you can get some crazy convection bands. The way it ejects supports this idea which is where it differs from other systems that have been sheared and are too far north or south of the cold region (warm nose because there is no strong 5h low aloft to cool the atmosphere) this year. Slight changes in position can significantly change an areas conditions (blizzard of 09 example). Get under the deformation band and you can go wild.

Yeah, and if looking at the simulated reflectivity, there are obviously some convective feedback or even P-Type issues going on.. skewing amounts.

im not sure if you guys are talking about me or not. but no im not taking it as gospel. im just letting people know what the hrrr is saying and what trends are showing for nw of dfw atm.

[TheProfessor]

Pete Delkus just posted on Facebook that freezing temps won't hit DFW until 2-4 tomorrow afternoon and little to no frozen precip is expected. Can anyone verify if he's accurate with that forecast?

yeah, thats surprising, thats quite a bit different than what NWS FWD thinks we will hit freezing, which is supposed to be around 8:00-9:00 am. I hope he is wrong! I wonder if thats for the more southeastern portions of the advisory?

[Tammie]

Pete Delkus just posted on Facebook that freezing temps won't hit DFW until 2-4 tomorrow afternoon and little to no frozen precip is expected. Can anyone verify if he's accurate with that forecast?

Yeah, I can...at 4pm tomorrow.

Oh, iorange!!! You're a comic too? How delightful! LOL!

[TheProfessor]

this is getting ridiculous.. if the 21z hrrr verifies, it will catch alot of people off guard.

I would be wary about hi resolution models and their tendencies to over do QPF. That saying, again like this morning, this storm is going negative tilt and will have a deformation band (comma shape head). It is under these type of systems that air above rapidly cools and you can get some crazy convection bands. The way it ejects supports this idea which is where it differs from other systems that have been sheared and are too far north or south of the cold region (warm nose because there is no strong 5h low aloft to cool the atmosphere) this year. Slight changes in position can significantly change an areas conditions (blizzard of 09 example). Get under the deformation band and you can go wild.

im not sure if you guys are talking about me or not. but no im not taking it as gospel. im just letting people know what the hrrr is saying and what trends are showing for nw of dfw atm.

Not to mention the SREF has been trending towards a qpf of .5 inches. The 21z run is going to be interesting.

[iorange55]

Pete Delkus just posted on Facebook that freezing temps won't hit DFW until 2-4 tomorrow afternoon and little to no frozen precip is expected. Can anyone verify if he's accurate with that forecast?

Yeah, I can...at 4pm tomorrow.

Oh, iorange!!! You're a comic too? How delightful! LOL!

Haha, but it is honestly going to be a close call. I am glad people aren't depending on me for a forecast.

[Tammie]

Yeah, I can...at 4pm tomorrow.[/quote]

Oh, iorange!!! You're a comic too? How delightful! LOL! [/quote]

Haha, but it is honestly going to be a close call. I am glad people aren't depending on me for a forecast.[/quote]

Thankfully Denton is north of the metroplex. Sometimes that's enough distance for a degree or two colder. In this situation, that may be all we need!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Pete Delkus just posted on Facebook that freezing temps won't hit DFW until 2-4 tomorrow afternoon and little to no frozen precip is expected. Can anyone verify if he's accurate with that forecast?

I like Delkus, but is he a pro met or just a newsreader?

[Tammie]

Pete Delkus just posted on Facebook that freezing temps won't hit DFW until 2-4 tomorrow afternoon and little to no frozen precip is expected. Can anyone verify if he's accurate with that forecast?

I like Delkus, but is he a pro met or just a newsreader?

Promet for DFW.