ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[chris_fit]

From Sarasota County Government...

....At this time, a mandatory evacuation order is in place for all residents living in a mobile home. A voluntary evacuation is urged for all residents living in a low-lying area or on barrier islands. These evacuations may be upgraded Monday depending on storm conditions. Shelters will open after 5 p.m. Monday. Stay tuned to local media for the latest storm advisories. Currently, Sarasota County Schools will be open Monday, Aug. 18 along with all county and municipal offices. Continue to monitor local media and NOAA weather radio throughout today and tonight for the latest information.

http://www.scgov.net/stormcenter/stormcenterhome.asp

[caneman]

I'm not liking the looks of things. Check out the Water Vapor loop. The ULL is nearly due West and dropping SW. I've seen many storms come up thru here with a ULL to the SW which helped strengthen them. Look at the end of the WV loop and you will notice the WEstern side expanding and feathering out.

Link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

Looks like the last VDM was a little too far south, or this is moving NW again.

Too far south, given it had pressure nearly 2mbs lower then the real pressure in the LLC.

[Steve Cosby]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

The blob down by Jamaica fell apart.

[bob rulz]

If they didn't receive permission, they violated airspace.

Lets hope they got permission or we are really in some trouble. Can Cuba actually stop us from taking our recon plane into Fay? They need the info too, so I think it would be ok for them too get that close.

I'm pretty sure Cuba always approves our recon flights. Obviously we don't like each other but Cuba takes tropical cyclones possibly even more seriously than we do.

[weatherSnoop]

I think POJO said earlier they had permission. (might have been a dream, though I don't think so)

[marciacubed]

The GDFL what do you think of this track?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[jaxfladude]

There's something very strange & wrong with this storm if you ask me! Something tells me we're in for a little surprise!!!

I fear that too, that is why I am worried about things and a feeling of "It will not be a bad hurricane." Anything can happen....

ahhhh, good quality SCIENCE!

Hey that is why I am not an expert......I defer to you experts....

[Sanibel]

I'm not liking the looks of things. Check out the Water Vapor loop. The ULL is nearly due West and dropping SW. I've seen many storms come up thru here with a ULL to the SW which helped strengthen them. Look at the end of the WV loop and you will notice the WEstern side expanding and feathering out.

Been trying to tell people that all morning. Perfect set-up for an unexpected RI shocker.

[Just Joshing You]

17/1745 UTC 21.0N 79.9W T2.0/2.5 FAY

[Aric Dunn]

URNT12 KNHC 171941
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 17/19:11:40Z
B. 20 deg 54 min N
079 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. 26 kt
E. 196 deg 064 nm
F. 309 deg 015 kt
G. 209 deg 015 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 16 C/ 1521 m
J. 18 C/ 1459 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF302 1306A FAY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 18:07:30 Z
PRELIMINARY

[KWT]

Should be noted that indeed the ULL does seem to be dropping WSW, the GFS did forecast this and elongate sit, the shear probably wil lhold for another 12-18hrs but may get more favorable after that and interestingly the GFS develops a ULH between 24-48hrs in the gulf, may not develop in time to be a huge factor for intenisty but every little can make a difference.

[gatorcane]

outer bands of Fay already impact the FL Keys.....

and just SSE of Miami-Dade metro....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Steve]

>>The GDFL what do you think of this track?

Other than it hits SW FL instead of SE FL, that's been +/- my track since last Monday. So I think, if it verifies, I should be commissioned an honorary Administrator so I can ban lots of bad posters.

Steve

[jaxfladude]

I'm not liking the looks of things. Check out the Water Vapor loop. The ULL is nearly due West and dropping SW. I've seen many storms come up thru here with a ULL to the SW which helped strengthen them. Look at the end of the WV loop and you will notice the WEstern side expanding and feathering out.

Been trying to tell people that all morning. Perfect set-up for an unexpected RI shocker.

Thanks for your efforts............

[HURAKAN]

Maybe now under Raúl the story is different, but under Fidel the only RECON plane approved to enter Cuban airspace was during Hurricane Iván. I remember very well when Lili was coming out of Pinar del Río, RECON had to wait until the storm was far from the coast to not enter airspace.

[tornado92]

If they didn't receive permission, they violated airspace.

Lets hope they got permission or we are really in some trouble. Can Cuba actually stop us from taking our recon plane into Fay? They need the info too, so I think it would be ok for them too get that close.

I'm pretty sure Cuba always approves our recon flights. Obviously we don't like each other but Cuba takes tropical cyclones possibly even more seriously than we do.

You hope so, but I don't know...

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 171941
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 17/19:11:40Z
B. 20 deg 54 min N
079 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. 26 kt
E. 196 deg 064 nm
F. 309 deg 015 kt
G. 209 deg 015 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 16 C/ 1521 m
J. 18 C/ 1459 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF302 1306A FAY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 18:07:30 Z
PRELIMINARY

[gatorcane]

Wow look at this bouy at sombrero Key off of Marathon in the FL Keys....winds are on the increase....

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 22 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 24 kts

[marciacubed]

>>The GDFL what do you think of this track?

Other than it hits SW FL instead of SE FL, that's been +/- my track since last Monday. So I think, if it verifies, I should be commissioned an honorary Administrator so I can ban lots of bad posters.

Steve

I hope I am not included in that group!!!