Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Man the NAM is a slop mess. You cross that line and it's heavy freezing rain/sleet/snow and all the unecessary goods. This is going to be a tough forecast. Areas to the west will get hammered, DFW is right on that line between you are ok to havoc. It certainly supports the HRRR in copious Qpf with a snowbomb in far NW Texas near Childress. DFW (especially NW side) is in 1-3" of stuff which is what Euro has been saying. Take a little more southeast jog like the euro and who knows.

[TheProfessor]

Man the NAM is a slop mess. You cross that line and it's heavy freezing rain/sleet/snow and all the unecessary goods. This is going to be a tough forecast. Areas to the west will get hammered, DFW is right on that line between you are ok to havoc. It certainly supports the HRRR in copious Qpf with a snowbomb in far NW Texas near Childress. DFW (especially NW side) is in 1-3" of stuff which is what Euro has been saying. Take a little more southeast jog like the euro and who knows.

Is all of Denton county (except for the south eastern corner) on the winter side of the line?

[Ntxw]

Man the NAM is a slop mess. You cross that line and it's heavy freezing rain/sleet/snow and all the unecessary goods. This is going to be a tough forecast. Areas to the west will get hammered, DFW is right on that line between you are ok to havoc. It certainly supports the HRRR in copious Qpf with a snowbomb in far NW Texas near Childress. DFW (especially NW side) is in 1-3" of stuff which is what Euro has been saying. Take a little more southeast jog like the euro and who knows.

Is all of Denton county (except for the south eastern corner) on the winter side of the line?

Ok we gotta stop asking these "is my back yard in x." You just can't say these things unless you see it live. Maybe you might sit in a pocket of heat and snow is all around but your 2 miles of air! Never know... If you live NW of DFW (being the airport at the centerpoint) then yes you will likely be on the winter side at some point, which assuming you are.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion...cool and wet weather for the end of the week!

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
UNDERWAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN REASON WITH JUST A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. MAIN CONCERN AND CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COLD NEXT
MIDWEEK SYSTEM BECOMES AND HOW MUCH OF THAT COLD AIR WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE VALLEY. GUT FEELING IS THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER
FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO TO FAR BELOW GUIDANCE. TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
THE LAST FEW FORECAST PERIODS WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST. DO
NOT THINK THIS WILL BE ANY TYPE OF FREEZE EVENT WITH DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER
A FEW DAYS IN THE 40S NEXT THU AND FRI WITH CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET ONCE
AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST AND INTO NW MEXICO AND SW DESERTS. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
AND TRACKS EAST THE TYPICAL OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEEPENING. COMBINE THE
CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH AND
GETTING TRAPPED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE...YOU GET ONE OR TWO CHILLY
DAMP SOUTH TEXAS DAYS. FORECAST IS NOT THAT DIRE AT THIS TIME BUT
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER AND WETTER. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 30
PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES LOWERED JUST A FEW DEGREES GIVING ROOM
FOR ANY MODEL CHANGES. STAY TUNED.

[TheProfessor]

Man the NAM is a slop mess. You cross that line and it's heavy freezing rain/sleet/snow and all the unecessary goods. This is going to be a tough forecast. Areas to the west will get hammered, DFW is right on that line between you are ok to havoc. It certainly supports the HRRR in copious Qpf with a snowbomb in far NW Texas near Childress. DFW (especially NW side) is in 1-3" of stuff which is what Euro has been saying. Take a little more southeast jog like the euro and who knows.

Is all of Denton county (except for the south eastern corner) on the winter side of the line?

Ok we gotta stop asking these "is my back yard in x." You just can't say these things unless you see it live. Maybe you might sit in a pocket of heat and snow is all around but your 2 miles of air! Never know... If you live NW of DFW (being the airport at the centerpoint) then yes you will likely be on the winter side at some point, which assuming you are.

Sorry, I just don't won't this to be like the late November storm.

[Ntxw]

Sorry, I just don't won't this to be like the late November storm.

They are not the same. Just as the December storm was not the same as the November storm (despite countless people trying to say it was before it happened). November storm was a positively tilted trough. The NWS shouldn't have even mentioned the November storm the set up is wildly different.

[TheProfessor]

Sorry, I just don't won't this to be like the late November storm.

They are not the same. Just as the December storm was not the same as the November storm (despite countless people trying to say it was before it happened). November storm was a positively tilted trough. The NWS shouldn't have even mentioned the November storm the set up is wildly different.

I didn't really mean the storm system, I meant the potential for winter precip but turning out to be drizzle instead. The rain was still beneficial though.

[Ntxw]

I didn't really mean the storm system, I meant the potential for winter precip but turning out to be drizzle instead. The rain was still beneficial though.

Don't sweat it . At least we are getting to track something and hopefully we all will get some snow out of it. To begin with we aren't even supposed to be tracking anything this weekend. Earlier in the week it was a puff of smoke up in Kansas and now it's a major storm system in Texas. Enjoy it if it does, know that it wasn't supposed to anyway if it doesn't.

Exhibit A

[orangeblood]

Man the NAM is a slop mess. You cross that line and it's heavy freezing rain/sleet/snow and all the unecessary goods. This is going to be a tough forecast. Areas to the west will get hammered, DFW is right on that line between you are ok to havoc. It certainly supports the HRRR in copious Qpf with a snowbomb in far NW Texas near Childress. DFW (especially NW side) is in 1-3" of stuff which is what Euro has been saying. Take a little more southeast jog like the euro and who knows.

Sloppy is right, has DFW reaching freezing around sunrise with > 0.35 QPF in sub-freezing surface temps. Classic freezing rain to sleet ending as snow!! Heaviest precip probably in the form of freezing rain and sleet between 8 am to Noon, then transitions into light snow ending before sunset.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[katheria]

I didn't really mean the storm system, I meant the potential for winter precip but turning out to be drizzle instead. The rain was still beneficial though.

Don't sweat it . At least we are getting to track something and hopefully we all will get some snow out of it. To begin with we aren't even supposed to be tracking anything this weekend. Earlier in the week it was a puff of smoke up in Kansas and now it's a major storm system in Texas. Enjoy it if it does, know that it wasn't supposed to anyway if it doesn't.

very very true
even if we dont get anything but cold rain, its sure been a interesting winter so far....
to get something like we did back in feb 2010 is way unusual anyways and only happens very rarely...

each storm system i learn more and more....
compared to some of you guys including you Ntxw..im in pre-school

[TrekkerCC]

Is all of Denton county (except for the south eastern corner) on the winter side of the line?

Sorry, I just don't won't this to be like the late November storm.

Well, it is going to be a similar situation, unfortunately. This is one of these borderline events that can go either way from a very gigantic mess to a cold rain that never transitions over. NW Texas tends to be a bit cooler and so usually has a better chance at achieving a "jackpot" for each event, we just don't know until it happens. Temperature, atmospheric column (is there expectation of a evaporate cooling that doesn't take place), where the lift "setups", very complex variables, all factor into making this event into a huge event, even for the DFW or having a miss completely. Very rarely will the conditions be certain enough in Texas for people to say before the event happens that this going to be a big one.


For example, let take the recent Birmingham, Alabama event. The models misplaced the axis of lift/precipitation too far south, plus while the air was dry at the surface, the heavy precipitation was able to overcome the dry air over North-Central Alabama. The evaporate cooling effect kept temperature very low (upper teens and lower twenties) which caused a little snow(1" to 4") to cause significant impacts that were under-forecasted by the mets in Alabama. However, had the lift been much farther south, as was forecasted, then likely Birmingham would have had a dusting or less as was originally forecast. It is these complex interactions that might turn a event that doesn't look promising into something major, or in terms of the November Thanksgiving event, the light precipitation didn't produce enough evaporate cooling to offset the warmth at the surface. We won't know until tomorrow how these factors are going to interact. We may know more tonight (a big hint that might suggest bigger impacts are that the surface temperatures fall below freezing when they aren't projected to go below freezing until the morning or mid-day in parts of the DFW metroplex), but we won't and cannot know until the rain, sleet, or snow is falling.

[ravyrn]

I didn't really mean the storm system, I meant the potential for winter precip but turning out to be drizzle instead. The rain was still beneficial though.

Don't sweat it . At least we are getting to track something and hopefully we all will get some snow out of it. To begin with we aren't even supposed to be tracking anything this weekend. Earlier in the week it was a puff of smoke up in Kansas and now it's a major storm system in Texas. Enjoy it if it does, know that it wasn't supposed to anyway if it doesn't.

Exhibit A

http://i62.tinypic.com/3092248.gif

Got to give it to Steve McCauley. He's had his eyes on that sucker since it was in the Bering Sea saying it was going to impact NTX.

EDIT: Though he was saying it was going to be a rain event until yesterday morning.

[Ntxw]

Check your pm orangeblood

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

My prediction:

Now go get the right booze!

[paulb]

First of all, let me first say it has been a long time since I've been logged in and posting but I have been following the winter threads for the past couple of years. Hopefully we can have similar discussions on spring storm setups in Texas in the coming months as well.

With the way that this pending storm has been forecasted, it sure has a little bit of that February 2010 feel to it. Now I am not saying that is what is going to happen tomorrow because every storm is in fact different. But it seems to have a similar feel to it considering just a few days ago we were looking at some light showers in the forecast for Sunday.

Hopefully, we can get some water in these lakes before summer.

[Ntxwx]

First of all, let me first say it has been a long time since I've been logged in and posting but I have been following the winter threads for the past couple of years. Hopefully we can have similar discussions on spring storm setups in Texas in the coming months as well.

With the way that this pending storm has been forecasted, it sure has a little bit of that February 2010 feel to it. Now I am not saying that is what is going to happen tomorrow because every storm is in fact different. But it seems to have a similar feel to it considering just a few days ago we were looking at some light showers in the forecast for Sunday.

Hopefully, we can get some water in these lakes before summer.

It does feel like the feb 2010 storm in a way! I think some people are gonna be surprised especially in Northwest Texas !

[Tammie]

My husband grew up in Missouri, and he says the clouds look like snow clouds, and the weather outside "feels" like snow. How's that for a prediction???

[katheria]

My husband grew up in Missouri, and he says the clouds look like snow clouds, and the weather outside "feels" like snow. How's that for a prediction???

yep the airs got that Crisp feeling...as i call it...

ok im starting to wonder what the deal is today.....the Forum has been SLOW all day....

superbowl weekend i bet is the reason....

[SnowintheFalls]

My husband grew up in Missouri, and he says the clouds look like snow clouds, and the weather outside "feels" like snow. How's that for a prediction???

yep the airs got that Crisp feeling...as i call it...

ok im starting to wonder what the deal is today.....the Forum has been SLOW all day....

superbowl weekend i bet is the reason....

Surprisingly slow this close to an event! I would have figured the boards would be hopping at this point.

[Tammie]

Fxus64 kfwd 020304 afdfwd Area forecast discussion National Weather Service fort worth tx

904 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014 Update: Overall the current forecast package appears to be on track. the only thing of note on the 00Z NAM was a slightly quicker temperature drop Sunday. If this verifies it would mean slightly higher accumulations a bit further east of the current warning and advisory. Therefore, we will add grayson county to the winter storm warning. We will also add lamar, hunt and delta to the winter weather advisory since freezing temperatures occurring earlier should result in light accumulations and possible travel impacts. We will continue to assess all available data as it comes in and make adjustments as necessary 79