Florida Weather

[SFLcane]

very warm November, no sign of winter at all here yet. Lows in the lower 70s, highs in the uppers 70s to near 80F....looks like a front moves through later this week, which should get rid of some of this humidity and lower temps some, but still above normal.

When is there a sign ever of winter in south florida... With la nina around (the offical) forecast calls for a warmer then average winter and drier conditions.

The GEFS ensembles continue to somewhat suggest we might be trying to slip into a pattern with a weak negative NAO look to it beyond 240 hours which (might) suggest we might tap into some of that real cold air over alaska but as you may know the NAO is virtually impossible to predict past 2 weeks . No one saw the negative NAO coming last winter and this is always the wild card. Climatology is usually a good signal to follow, so i think that supports a cooler beginning and warmer end to winter. Precip signals are much more reliable and it definitely points to dry in Florida. We could always see a couple of "wet" systems in the winter, but they will be limited as was the case last winter.

[tshizzle]

sure hasnt been dry yet - i think its rained like 7 days in a row or something

[gigabite]

sure hasnt been dry yet - i think its rained like 7 days in a row or something

Naples has not had an above average rainfall year since 2005. We are not going to get there this year either. The dry season has been wetter for the last few years, but the 5 year moving average has been dropping for the last 30 years.

[gsytch]

Whenever it is that cold in Alaska. I worry. It is brutal up there right now. Let us hope it passes north and that most of the cold keeps sliding east. Mid 80's and dewpoints near 70F since Sat, including a seabreeze front inland from me and showers there.....unusual for late Nov. We deserve a "not so cold" winter!

[AdamFirst]

First big cold front of the year here. Mid-40s expected for lows the next two nights.

[tshizzle]

boo, no cold fronts in the next 10 days or so

[AdamFirst]

Freak flooding event on-going on the Treasure Coast...upwards of six inches of rain reported around Port Saint Lucie and Stuart.

[psyclone]

what a difference a year makes. i haven't needed heat or air conditioning in months. what a beautiful fall and start to winter. a true treat for residents and visitors alike. i hope it continues.

[gsytch]

I agree. Even a little cool weather would be nice...cool not cold.Long range still do not foresee any strong cold fronts!

[NDG]

So far this December Orlando has averaged 77 degrees for highs, a year ago we were only averaging 62 degrees for highs for the same time period.
The big killer were the lows, which were averaging 39 degrees.

[Patrick99]

This has been quite a shock, considering what happened in both January 2010 and December 2010.

I've had to keep cranking the AC right into what is now our "dead of winter." This is crazy....we seriously haven't had any fronts that dumped the morning temps into the mid to upper 50s, even - at this point I'm wondering if even minor cool shots like that will come. I think the chances of getting any true Arctic air into South Florida this year are slim to none.

[gsytch]

Patrick - I've lived here long enough to know it only takes one front and bam! old man winter....but the pattern does not want to change, and that is great for us Floridians. This morning was a brisk 51F with breezes and barely hit 69F. Weird, it felt "chilly" yet its really only a few degrees from normal. Ahhh the week is forecasting 75-80F how nice at Xmas!
LA NINA hold your ground! My orchids and Bromeliads are thrilled!

[gatorcane]

yeah no sign of any "winter" here at all. When the fronts move through it seems the winds veer to the east pretty quickly, which keeps lows in the 60s and 70s at night here along the SE Coast of Florida. I am really liking this weather. In the past few previous winters, it seemed the winds stayed out of the NW for days on end, which helped funnel in the colder air.

[Patrick99]

Unless the NAO really goes in the tank in early-mid January, we may not get any significant Arctic intrusions in South Florida at all. That does happen some winters where the Arctic air just can't make it all the way down here, it wouldn't be that unusual. And given the lack of snow cover points north of us......if any cold air does make it down, it probably won't be that terribly cold.

What has been unusual is the near complete lack of any airmass that drops temps below 60 degrees. I think I remember one morning in November when the temp brushed 58-59 degrees, but that has been about it. Easterly flow has been so persistent, the nighttime lows have been very warm for December.

[NDG]

Unless the NAO really goes in the tank in early-mid January, we may not get any significant Arctic intrusions in South Florida at all. That does happen some winters where the Arctic air just can't make it all the way down here, it wouldn't be that unusual. And given the lack of snow cover points north of us......if any cold air does make it down, it probably won't be that terribly cold.

What has been unusual is the near complete lack of any airmass that drops temps below 60 degrees. I think I remember one morning in November when the temp brushed 58-59 degrees, but that has been about it. Easterly flow has been so persistent, the nighttime lows have been very warm for December.

You guys in SE FL might end up saying, "What winter, we never had a winter", by the time February/March comes along if the overall sypnotic set up continues.
This would help our tourism industry definitely this winter when word spreads around how much warmer we are this winter compared to last and compared to SW US which has been colder than average this winter so far.

[Sanibel]

Unusually mild here this December. Anomalous constant east wind pattern. Warm tropical sun in day time and no depressing December chill yet this year. Mild enough at night to take night bike ride with no chill. 72*-82* every day.

[gatorcane]

Snippet from NWS Miami on any potential cool air:

SOME COOLER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
HOW COOL IS IN QUESTION...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE
20.00Z GFS RUN DIGS A SHARP AND DEEP TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
STATES...WITH A FORMIDABLE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH FL ON
MONDAY. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPS BRIEFLY TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT TUE-WED. HOWEVER...THE 20.00Z ECMWF RUN SHOWS A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AS PER THE
GFS. EITHER WAY...NO "COLD" AIR OF SIGNIFICANCE IS SHOWN BY EITHER
MODEL OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ALSO...BOTH MODELS SHOW MINIMAL QPF
WITH THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND INSTABILITY LOOKS LACKING FOR
TSTORMS...SO KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

Scratch the idea of a strong cold front passing through S FL early next week as mentioned above, the GFS has backed away of that idea on today's runs. 588+ dm Mid level ridge in the western Caribbean into S FL looks to hold on strong.

[psyclone]

this is without a doubt the nicest December I can remember down here, making the contrast with last December (the worst by far) all the more stark. I am loving this (lack of) of winter thus far. I hope it lasts. we have earned a nice winter after the last few years.

[JonathanBelles]

this is without a doubt the nicest December I can remember down here, making the contrast with last December (the worst by far) all the more stark. I am loving this (lack of) of winter thus far. I hope it lasts. we have earned a nice winter after the last few years.

I am a very big fan of last year's winter. And with that I am glad this 80 degree and no rain stuff should be on its way out toward the end of the year...or so says the GFS.