ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Yeah, that's what I suspected. The satellite cloud top eye is displaced slightly more N than the surface eye. The track is just a touch right of trop points but not as much as I thought this morning.

And please don't say "NNW jog". This has gone nowhere near NNW in a jog or anything else.

I'll get slammed for this but Fujiwara - no matter how weak, should at least be mentioned at this point.


This west wind all summer here was the sign of a weird track year. West before the coast for a strong storm is unusual.

[rockyman]

Yeah, that's what I suspected. The satellite cloud top eye is displaced slightly more N than the surface eye. The track is just a touch right of trop points but not as much as I thought this morning.

And please don't say "NNW jog". This has gone nowhere near NNW in a jog or anything else.

I'll get slammed for this but Fujiwara - no matter how weak, should at least be mentioned at this point.

GUSTAV HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SOON RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1200.shtml?

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2008 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 20:54:56 N Lon : 81:42:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 933.2mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.2 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +2.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cpdaman]

delete

[rockyman]

Current steering flow:

[ROCK]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2008 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 20:54:56 N Lon : 81:42:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 933.2mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.2 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +2.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

6.6 is impressive....might make a run at 7.0 before backing down.......those are raw numbers correct?

[TampaSteve]

Good golly Miss Molly! Gus has blowed up real good. I'm thinking Cat 4 in the Gulf easy.

[El Nino]

933 mb ? T6.5 ?

[rockyman]

the CDO is becoming symmetric in a hurry...It could reach Cat 4 by the 5pm advisory (IMO),...or even sooner with a special advisory (not sure if they'll pull the trigger at 11am)

[jlauderdal]

[93superstorm]

For the first time, Red is totally around the center. Looks to be very close or is a cat 4:

[DESTRUCTION5]

The Isle of Youth is about to get everything Gus has to offer...

[Air Force Met]

delete

I also see very little movement over the last hour. It jogged NNW...then WNW...sno its drifting. I think its temporary as it undergoes it run at top end cat 4 before Cuba.

I think the NNW jog has been partially in response to the break in teh ridge over the NE GoM and the upper trof. However, if you look at a long wv loop...you can see an upper high dropping down through Al/MS towards the northern Gulf. This should close up the break by later this afternoon or evening and could move Gus on a more 300-305 heading as it enters the Gulf.

My opinions haven't changed on ladnfall. I do think SW-cntl LA still with the further west point as JEff cty TX...furthest east is NOLA. Many models all showing a hook to the left at the end have me a little concerned for the upper TX coast as they are sensing something...and that would mean its a matter of timing.

[CrazyC83]

933 mb ? T6.5 ?

Those are raw estimates, and a bit higher than the current intensity. My guess for the current intensity is 115-120 kt.

[soonertwister]

933/6.5 is closer to cat-5 than I care to think about.

[ALhurricane]

delete

I also see very little movement over the last hour. It jogged NNW...then WNW...sno its drifting. I think its temporary as it undergoes it run at top end cat 4 before Cuba.

I think the NNW jog has been partially in response to the break in teh ridge over the NE GoM and the upper trof. However, if you look at a long wv loop...you can see an upper high dropping down through Al/MS towards the northern Gulf. This should close up the break by later this afternoon or evening and could move Gus on a more 300-305 heading as it enters the Gulf.

My opinions haven't changed on ladnfall. I do think SW-cntl LA still with the further west point as JEff cty TX...furthest east is NOLA. Many models all showing a hook to the left at the end have me a little concerned for the upper TX coast as they are sensing something...and that would mean its a matter of timing.

I am very interested to see what this does intensity wise in the Gulf. Does it weaken well before landfall or perhaps weaken just prior to landfall like Ivan and Katrina. That will make a big difference obviously. The upper trough on water vapor is beginning to retreat to the south and west, so it will be interesting to see just how much shear will occur over the storm. If Gustav stays a little east of the current track, then it may be in an ideal location to be well ventilated by the trough to the west.

[WindRunner]

Well if you want to talk about raw AODT numbers, I can get it to 6.7/6.8 when doing it off the 1345z image...but that's not worth much of anything, because it was even reporting 5.8-ish last night when recon was finding its surface winds around 85/90kts.

[tolakram]

Looks like yet another deeper band of convection wrapping around. Still organizing, not good news for intensity. I'm now wondering if this can hit cat4 prior to Cuba.

[CrazyC83]

The highest supported intensity right now is 132 kt at a flight level of about 11,000 feet. That would be 120 kt at the surface.

[HouTXmetro]

delete

I also see very little movement over the last hour. It jogged NNW...then WNW...sno its drifting. I think its temporary as it undergoes it run at top end cat 4 before Cuba.

I think the NNW jog has been partially in response to the break in teh ridge over the NE GoM and the upper trof. However, if you look at a long wv loop...you can see an upper high dropping down through Al/MS towards the northern Gulf. This should close up the break by later this afternoon or evening and could move Gus on a more 300-305 heading as it enters the Gulf.

My opinions haven't changed on ladnfall. I do think SW-cntl LA still with the further west point as JEff cty TX...furthest east is NOLA. Many models all showing a hook to the left at the end have me a little concerned for the upper TX coast as they are sensing something...and that would mean its a matter of timing.

AFM those were my observations also. I have been looking at the models, WV Loops and have come to a "timing" conclusion also.