Global model runs discussion

[blp]

I think the final chance for activity in the season may be approaching toward the last week of October and first week of November. Looks like the MJO is signaling that it will make its appearance in our basin according to the latest models. Given past performance I expect a delay of a few days so first week of November might be the best bet.

Also, on the last three model runs on the GFS you see strong activity over the EPAC toward Oct 26. I expect the GFS will start showing something happening in our basin a few days after that as the MJO propagates east. The caveat is that this happened early in the year and the MJO collapsed and did not reach our basin so it remains to be seen whether this will happen.

Euro Forecast:


GFS Forecast:

[hurricanes1234]

Strong activity in EPAC in the last week of October going into November in a year like 2013? Are they sure about this?

[CrazyC83]

You just never know. 1994 had its two strongest storms in November.

[blp]

The mjo has now exited the zone 6 in the W. Pacific and is predicted to push into our region later in the forecast.

Past several GFS runs have shown activity picking up in the EPAC and now the 12z is first run to start showing activity increasing in the Carribean with two areas. Let's see if a trend is established. This is more than likely the last chance for development this season.

12z GFS


Euro Mjo

[gatorcane]

Another look at the 12Z GFS with the low in the SW Caribbean at 360 hours:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS continues to show the low in the Western Caribbean: 288 hours:

[blp]

18Z GFS continues to show the low in the Western Caribbean: 288 hours:

Much faster with the evolution but I expect this to go back and forth several times. I still think the model has not yet consistently latched onto the low that will develop but it is giving us the general idea that pressures will be falling in the region.

[cycloneye]

18Z GFS continues to show the low in the Western Caribbean: 288 hours:

Much faster with the evolution but I expect this to go back and forth several times. I still think the model has not yet consistently latched onto the low that will develop but it is giving us the general idea that pressures will be falling in the region.

Now we have to see if the ECMWF picks up something in the coming runs.

[gatorcane]

Nothing from the ECMWF or GFS from last night's runs. I did notice the ECMWF had some wave moving through west in the East-Central Caribbean at 240 hours...maybe future runs of the ECMWF show this wave doing something in the Western Caribbean.

[Blinhart]

I think this pitiful uneventful hurricane season is done. Now we have to see what kind of horrible winter we will have due to the fact that I have a feeling we will see repercussions from the lack of energy being used up in the atmosphere and the winter will make up for that.

[gatorcane]

I think this pitiful uneventful hurricane season is done. Now we have to see what kind of horrible winter we will have due to the fact that I have a feeling we will see repercussions from the lack of energy being used up in the atmosphere and the winter will make up for that.

Judging by the 12Z ECMWF, it already looks like some horrible winter-like weather is in store for parts of the Northeastern United States in the long-range if this run verifies. Look how deep that low is and there is another big one behind it.

Note nothing of interest from the ECMWF in the tropics also....maybe this season is all but done folks

[blp]

I think this pitiful uneventful hurricane season is done. Now we have to see what kind of horrible winter we will have due to the fact that I have a feeling we will see repercussions from the lack of energy being used up in the atmosphere and the winter will make up for that.

Judging by the 12Z ECMWF, it already looks like some horrible winter-like weather is in store for parts of the Northeastern United States in the long-range if this run verifies. Look how deep that low is and there is another big one behind it.

Note nothing of interest from the ECMWF in the tropics also....maybe this season is all but done folks

[img]http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/8848/jv0u.gif[/]

I am waiting one more week to call it quits. I still think the MJO's greatest influence for the Carribean will come in first week of November, since the EPAC looks to have the energy in the last week of October. The end is getting close though.

[hurricanes1234]

I think this pitiful uneventful hurricane season is done. Now we have to see what kind of horrible winter we will have due to the fact that I have a feeling we will see repercussions from the lack of energy being used up in the atmosphere and the winter will make up for that.

I do also. 90% of this year has been forecast, 10% reality, in my opinion. Model runs here and there forecasting strong hurricanes in the super long-range, only to find out that they either don't form, or form, but are destroyed by violently hostile conditions. Season is likely over in my opinion, with the exception of a couple weak tropical storms or depressions. I don't see anymore hurricanes forming this year, as of now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hate to say it. But I concur. This season was a dud. It's a good thing though after all the distruction from sandy. We needed a break. I think people will not adhere to future forecasts because of the predictions. Actually 2 years in a row has baffled the experts. Have a great tropical break. Here from you all. Next season.

[supercane4867]

12Z GFS has a storm forming along Yucatan after 10 days

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013101512/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_72.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013101512/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_77.png

[hurricanes1234]

12Z GFS has a storm forming along Yucatan after 10 days

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013101512/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_72.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013101512/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_77.png

Models, like all of us, have been doing poorly with this season. I wouldn't believe even the least bit of development until the NHC raises the chances to high. And that is 10 days away, so I would expect the models to lower or drop it eventually, since that is all that has been happening in 2013. Not saying it cannot form, but I have personally given up on this season, so I wouldn't really expect much.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Interesting run from the 12Z GFS. It kindaof came out of nowhere with this Western Caribbean system. Shows the low forming around 7 days from now. That really isn't in the extreme long-range of 250+ hours from some "model" storms the GFS has been showing forming in the Western Caribbean the past week or so.

I guess if we see the next several runs with this same low developing around that timeframe or see it coming in sooner (preferably), we may just may have something here. So far nothing on the ECMWF.

[wxman57]

It's more like 10-11 days when the low really develops on the 12Z GFS. Prime late-season development area, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[cycloneye]

It's more like 10-11 days when the low really develops on the 12Z GFS. Prime late-season development area, but I'll believe it when I see it.

+1000 agree.

[AJC3]

Folks really shouldn't take anything more out of this than the fact that the op ECM and op GFS are forecasting a general pattern that might favor BOC or western CARIB TC formation starting around days 8-10, which are preferred climatological regions for TC genesis during late OCT. It would probably do peeps well to skip getting into the "gory details" (one of my favorite AFD terms) of the model solutions and look more at global ensembles, their means, and how they trend over the next several days.