ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

When in doubt Gatorcane use the higher resolution imagery, see nothing to suggest a jump north on that at the moment.

Yep Frank, it maybe slightly approaching Cuba now but thats to be expexcted.

Convection still to the east of the center as well but not by a huge deal, wouldn't take long if the shear were to lower for the convection to jump over the center.

[Shockwave]

The 1915Z frame is not aligned properly. There's a massive jump towards the north with every single cloud in the Atlantic according to that frame so the apparent northward "jump" is really partial image error. If this movement is true, then I'd suggest looking towards Antarctica to see what just hit the Earth.

- Jay

LMAO, thank you for posting this... I wanted to say something about it, but I figured it would be obvious to everyone on here that it was an issue with that single satellite frame and not an incredible jump to the North.

With the way Fay's been acting since the beginning...ANYTHING is possible!

[ekal]

Dropsonde confirms 1003mb.

Pressure drop confirms what I was saying earlier - Fay has been getting better organized.

The lower pressure in this VDM is likely due to the first VDM missing the center. Let's see if there are any further drops. Fay's satellite presentation does not suggest any deepening.

[robbielyn]

>>Yep 20.9N as expected

It's 20.54 so maybe not quite as expected.
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I'm just kidding y'all. The only thing I would do differently than most of our fine mods and administrators would be to open up another forum called the Arena and suspend wobble-warriors, state-casters and whinecasters to fight it out there rather than on the regular boards until storm "x" passed. Nobody is automatically destined for that hypothetical forum, but depending on the storm, certain posters would be forced over there.

Steve

Thats actually a good idea. they could read but not post on here and have their own little forum.

[Vortex]

radar confirms a much better organized system the last few hours..forward speed has also come to a halt the last few hours..

[NEXRAD]

The 1915Z frame is not aligned properly. There's a massive jump towards the north with every single cloud in the Atlantic according to that frame so the apparent northward "jump" is really partial image error. If this movement is true, then I'd suggest looking towards Antarctica to see what just hit the Earth.

- Jay

I don't think so.

Look at the Atlantic wide view...I see nothing jumping north but Fay

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Yes, use that loop and take a look at the finer low-level clouds east of the Lesser Antilles. They show this bizarre "jump" too. It seems a jump to the northeast, so anything already moving north or east won't look too strange.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

>>Yep 20.9N as expected

It's 20.54 so maybe not quite as expected.
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I'm just kidding y'all. The only thing I would do differently than most of our fine mods and administrators would be to open up another forum called the Arena and suspend wobble-warriors, state-casters and whinecasters to fight it out there rather than on the regular boards until storm "x" passed. Nobody is automatically destined for that hypothetical forum, but depending on the storm, certain posters would be forced over there.

Steve

Thats actually a good idea. they could read but not post on here and have their own little forum.

yes we could call this the communist forum, and the other one (the arena) the democratic lol

[KWT]

Yep ekal thats almost certainly the case, presentation still looks the same sheared look it had about 6hrs ago, shouldn't change much if at all till its north of cuba.

[Noles2006]

radar confirms a much better organized system the last few hours..forward speed has also come to a halt the last few hours..

It does appear that her motion has dramatically slowed...

[MWatkins]

It looks like the upper low is starting to impact Fay. Notice outflow to the south is getting smooshed (SW quad)...and the upper clouds to the west are getting sheared back to the north as well (jumpy 1915Z image not withstanding).

However...the ULL over the central Atlantic is getting into a position that it could start helping evacuate mass.

The upper low to the west isn't expected to last very long...but the intensification trend may not begin until tomorrow...

MW

[Extremeweatherguy]

radar confirms a much better organized system the last few hours..forward speed has also come to a halt the last few hours..

It does appear that her motion has dramatically slowed...

That is usually a good indication that a storm is about to turn more NW.

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM, of course is the NAM, but taking a huge shift west so far,,going over the west tip of Cuba

[Noles2006]

radar confirms a much better organized system the last few hours..forward speed has also come to a halt the last few hours..

It does appear that her motion has dramatically slowed...

That is usually a good indication that a storm is about to turn more NW.

Yes, it usually is.

I was beginning to think Sanibel was on to something earlier when he said something about the ridge "slinging it into the weakness"... guess not!

[Jason_B]

I bet we'll see a NW motion develop tonight.

[cpdaman]

also appears the LLC is elongated NW/SE per ramdis

[SouthFloridawx]

So... Do we have some westerly shear in the mid level? It looks like the western side of the system is having some problems with convection. Maybe due to the ULL to the west of the system.

Just a thought...

[Aric Dunn]

well this will clear up any confusion about it being off its forcast track...

it is a little south of the track as of the 2pm

[gatorcane]

It looks like the upper low is starting to impact Fay. Notice outflow to the south is getting smooshed (SW quad)...and the upper clouds to the west are getting sheared back to the north as well (jumpy 1915Z image not withstanding).

However...the ULL over the central Atlantic is getting into a position that it could start helping evacuate mass.

The upper low to the west isn't expected to last very long...but the intensification trend may not begin until tomorrow...

MW

MIke have to disagree with you I think the intensification trend started a couple of hours ago with that burst of convection just east of the center ---- I think its start to get its act together now.

[KWT]

Yeah motion appears to have slowed as you'd expect really given it sped up more than it should have done earlier today.

Also yep shear is coming in from the WSW at the moment displacing the convection to the eastern side of the circlation, that ULL should weaken soon enough and move out of the way eventually, will be interesting to see if it helps the outflow.

[NEXRAD]

The problem with Fay forming new sustained convection to the west of its LLC is caused in part by suppressing upper level convergence between the ULL and upper level ridging. If the upper low shifts a bit more towards the south (or Fay to the north) then this should become less of an issue.

- Jay