ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

Let's not jump the gun or panic....right now ike is a Cat 1 in the southeast gulf. Ike is not Rita, Katrina, or Wilma. The potential for what Ike could become is there....but as we see over and over...potential can change, tracks change, etc.

But on the other end of things...given the potential and pendulum-like swings in track, anyone in the Gulf east of Texas who has given themselves an all clear....your all clear is gone until we know more!

Ike could be the largest storm I've seen enter the gulf that I can remember. I'm afraid it's going to be a MONSTER with far reaching effects. Makes me sick knowing he now has three days over the GOM.

[Nexus]

[Kludge]

Update from Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1820645#p1820645

SKy is falling. Film @ 11.

[ConvergenceZone]

I may be somewhat cynical, but that right hand turn in the five day NHC cone/line seems like the most political weather forecast I have ever seen. I hope someone can provide a right hand turn just after landfall five day cone for some previous storm. Otherwise, I am going to believe the NHC drew it that way to avoid pointing the cone right at Houston and also having to show Rita-steps to the right.

They appear to be hedging their forecast. They indicate a northwest turn but only a partial turn. With the trof to the west, if Ike moves inland into Texas on their path it should accelerate northward then NNE into Oklahoma by Sunday. Unfortunately, we're in fair agreement at work that a landfall is more likely in Matagorda, maybe even north of there. That would mean 45-60 mph winds and higher gusts in Houston and days without power.

It's strange - Ike's on almost the same timetable as Rita was in 2005 - striking early on a Saturday morning. By this time for Rita, the evacuations had started and you could hardly find any food or gas or supplies. Going to be an interesting next few days around here.

Well, take are of yourself WXMAN57, and hopefully they will give you a few days off after Ike strikes, being that there is nothing in the pipeline after Ike.....I'm sure you are looking forward to that...

[mpic]

We'll see....I think it will hit around Galveston. It's hard to tell, now, but, I'm thinking the ridge will weaken and it will begin a decent turn N/NW when it is S. of Louisiana--not Texas. We'll all watch and see. If I was in Texas I would be deep into plans and thoughts about an evacuation. This could easily be a Cat. 4 when it strikes land.

I'm just waiting for my last load of laundry to get dry.

[jinftl]

Turning systems are the hardest to forecast..and small changes in timing and angle can mean landfall 200 miles away all of a sudden....turn a day early or no turn...that puts most of TX & LA at risk

We'll see....I think it will hit around Galveston. It's hard to tell, now, but, I'm thinking the ridge will weaken and it will begin a decent turn N/NW when it is S. of Louisiana--not Texas. We'll all watch and see. If I was in Texas I would be deep into plans and thoughts about an evacuation. This could easily be a Cat. 4 when it strikes land.

I'm just waiting for my last load of laundry to get dry.

[gboudx]

Update from Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1820645#p1820645

SKy is falling. Film @ 11.

Another one for you.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1820732#p1820732

[bayoubebe]

Don't put your guard down yet, anyone. Bob Breck was saying this afternoon, if it slows down, Louisiana could still get, at least a portion, of Ike. SW Louisiana, most especially, at THIS POINT, I would NOT let my guard down, IMO.
Good Luck to all along the gulf coast. Texans, I hope you have started preparations.

[KWT]

jinftl , I've got a big feeling that the percentage chance of a cat-4/5 will be rapidly increasing over the next 24hrs

The eyewall already developing very nicely and deepening, not much of general deep convection but I suppose its only as matter of time, right now it seems like Ike just has the basic structure and needs to build upon it a little more.

[6SpeedTA95]

Man guys for a borderline TS/Cat1 Ike looks pretty impressive. If I were just looking at the IR/WV and central pressure I would guess Ike was a strong cat1 or weak cat2 just based on the storm structure. There's a large amount of dry air on the east side of the storm but now that its back over water I would expect the dry air to be ejected over the next 6 to 12 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

It would be quite rare for that to happen, although I guess one certainly could argue that the track of this thing is quite rare. I don't see this storm strengthening that much. It may become a major before landfall, but my gut tells me it is not going to do it. In my opinion, I don't think Austin will see 90 mph winds from this. A lot of things would have to come together for that to happen making the odds very much against it. It would have to strengthen remarkably, it would have to track just right, it would have to be going pretty fast (so as not to deteriorate as quickly) for that kind of an event to ocurr. Not saying its impossible but certainly improbable. By the way those exact conditions did occur in Baton Rouge during Gustav, sustained winds in the 60's and 91 mph gusts, but that hadn't happened since Betsty in '65 and BR is at least 100 miles closer to the gulf than Austin.

Tiger, while it's good to think positive, the thing is, the atmostpheric conditions out in the Gulf don't support your idea of your belief of you not thinking that this will strengthen much. I mean, to me, it already looks better than Gustav did when it emerged from Cuba as far as structure goes(even though I know Gustav was stronger), and also, the fact that the convection is ALREADY getting going and the eyewall is starting to look better, that should tell you something. Also remember that the NHC is often conservative in their intensity outlook. Don't be suprised that if this ramps up quicker that the NHC raises the intensity forecast to peak somewhere in CAT4 range instead of 3....... Remember, this isn't Gustav, as the conditions for Gustave weren't that good at all. This suppose to have some shear, but not strong shear to keep it from strengthening... I just can't see robust stregthening NOT happening. It would go against everything I ever learned about hurricanes and their environment....

[dizzyfish]

I'm just gonna jump in here for a sec. Yes, I'm in Florida.

I really feel for you folks in Texas....these tracks must be driving you absolutely nuts!

My best wishes for all...wherever Ike ends up.

*now we all chant* We hate Ike, We hate Ike.

[MBryant]

I know its been said many times but this reeks of Rita. For my family's sake, I hope it doesn't pull a Rita into southeast Texas!

Me Too!! I'm not really wanting to evacuate two weekends in a row.

If it does hit here after Rita and Humberto, I think I'll just move to ??????????. There has to be someplace without severe weather or earthquakes.

[HouTXmetro]

If it's any consolation to folks on the upper TX coast, the last GFS run shifted South closer to Brownsville. Maybe this thing will end up going into the unpopulated Kennedy County.

[jinftl]

removed graphic...nhc has 11am data still showing for wind prob!

jinftl , I've got a big feeling that the percentage chance of a cat-4/5 will be rapidly increasing over the next 24hrs

The eyewall already developing very nicely and deepening, not much of general deep convection but I suppose its only as matter of time, right now it seems like Ike just has the basic structure and needs to build upon it a little more.

[KWT]

CZ, yes I agree with you, its got plenty of time, 3 warm eddies to go over, very low shear with the latest shear charts showing less then 5kts of shear over Ike. This very likely will be a major hurricane within 36hrs and the NHC mentioning cat-4 does not surprise me at all given how condusive the conditions are in the central Gulf.

[Texas Snowman]

If Ike powers up to a major or an intense hurricane and approaches SW of Galveston, a huge key is going to be his forward speed - I did not like to see Linder's note about tropical storm force winds affecting all areas including Houston by mid-day Friday.

That means tomorrow is the 48 hour mark and I doubt many if any are ready to begin getting out of dodge. And given the fact that officials may want to try and lock in a track before giving evac orders (to avoid Rita Evac II), time is going to be of the essence if Ike has any thoughts of moving towards Galveston/Houston.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man guys for a borderline TS/Cat1 Ike looks pretty impressive. If I were just looking at the IR/WV and central pressure I would guess Ike was a strong cat1 or weak cat2 just based on the storm structure. There's a large amount of dry air on the east side of the storm but now that its back over water I would expect the dry air to be ejected over the next 6 to 12 hours.

I agree, with that statellite presentation just posted, you'd swear that it's more than 75 mph...Anyones guess when the wind speeds will show their first increase??? I'm thinking by maybe 11:00 PM Pacific time, or do you think that's too soon?

[MHurricanes]

jinftl , I've got a big feeling that the percentage chance of a cat-4/5 will be rapidly increasing over the next 24hrs

The eyewall already developing very nicely and deepening, not much of general deep convection but I suppose its only as matter of time, right now it seems like Ike just has the basic structure and needs to build upon it a little more.

KWT,

I think you may be right. This one does not look good. I fear for the people living on Gulf.

- MHurricanes

[Pebbles]

If it does hit here after Rita and Humberto, I think I'll just move to ??????????. There has to be someplace without severe weather or earthquakes.

Can move up by me.. but then you have to deal with winter!