Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tammie]

Heavy freezing rain in Denton. Grill and other elevated surfaces starting to accumulate ice. Temp steady at 31.

[gto67]

Orangeblood, would you please give the site where I can read Cavanaugh discussion.

[RedRiverRefuge]

Forcast discussion link:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[HockeyTx82]

Orangeblood, would you please give the site where I can read Cavanaugh discussion.

Go here http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/ and on the left column click forecast discussion.

[TheProfessor]

32 according to NWS now!

[wxman57]

RUC soundings indicate a very shallow near to sub-freezing layer in Dallas-Ft. Worth this morning with temps rising steadily above about 1000 ft to near 50F at 5000 ft. By mid afternoon, the RUC shrinks the warm nose considerably but temps are forecast to remain 34F-36F between about 1000 ft. above the surface and about 10,000 ft. That's warmer aloft than we were in Houston last Tuesday when we had a mixture of freezing rain and sleet and a few tiny snowflakes as the precip ended. Our temperature during the precip was 29-30F.

Here's a current RUC sounding:

[HockeyTx82]

http://news.msn.com/us/handlers-punxsut ... ger-winter

Well, at least wxman57 did not get to the groundhog this year

[DonWrk]

Weather station here says 30.9. Decent rain falling and freezing to elevated surfaces right now in Grayson county.

[stephen23]

30 degrees just north of down town fort worth in the saginaw area. Drizzle has froze to car windows

[HockeyTx82]

RUC soundings indicate a very shallow near to sub-freezing layer in Dallas-Ft. Worth this morning with temps rising steadily above about 1000 ft to near 50F at 5000 ft. By mid afternoon, the RUC shrinks the warm nose considerably but temps are forecast to remain 34F-36F between about 1000 ft. above the surface and about 10,000 ft. That's warmer aloft than we were in Houston last Tuesday when we had a mixture of freezing rain and sleet and a few tiny snowflakes as the precip ended. Our temperature during the precip was 29-30F.

Here's a current RUC sounding:

Forgive my not understanding, but does this mean all liquid? Mix? More freezing rain/ice?

[wxman57]

http://news.msn.com/us/handlers-punxsutawney-phil-predicts-longer-winter

Well, at least wxman57 did not get to the groundhog this year

I tried that last year, blocking out the sun so he wouldn't see his shadow. Unfortunately, that was about when winter started in 2013. One major snow storm after another after Groundhog Day.

[Snowman67]

I didn't have a chance to see the NWS forecast out the Hou/Galv office last night. Did they do an evening update that called for the front to get here quicker? Temps here are already below 50F (Tomball) and supposed to fall throughout the day to 42F by 5pm. I don't recall that being the forecast I last saw yesterday afternoon. Maybe I'm wrong, can someone verfify? Thanks.

[RedRiverRefuge]

Most bridges in Sherman and Denison are starting to accumulate ice. Those headed for Superbowl festivities this afternoon best consider conditions especially in red river counties. Be careful/ be aware.

[wxman57]

RUC soundings indicate a very shallow near to sub-freezing layer in Dallas-Ft. Worth this morning with temps rising steadily above about 1000 ft to near 50F at 5000 ft. By mid afternoon, the RUC shrinks the warm nose considerably but temps are forecast to remain 34F-36F between about 1000 ft. above the surface and about 10,000 ft. That's warmer aloft than we were in Houston last Tuesday when we had a mixture of freezing rain and sleet and a few tiny snowflakes as the precip ended. Our temperature during the precip was 29-30F.

Here's a current RUC sounding:

Forgive my not understanding, but does this mean all liquid? Mix? More freezing rain/ice?

Sounding indicates that there is only a very shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface, which translates into cold rain or freezing rain this morning. By mid afternoon, the air aloft is still mostly above freezing between 1000 and 10,000 ft. Only a very shallow freezing layer near the surface. Again, that translates into cold rain or freezing rain. The sub-freezing layer isn't predicted (by the RUC - Rapid Update Cycle model) to be thick enough even for sleet. It's possible that the model could be "off" enough that the freezing rain changes to sleet during the afternoon as the precip starts winding down. And if the RUC is way off then it's possible to see some snow as the precip ends.

If I plot a RUC sounding for stations that are now reporting snow, then I see no above-freezing air aloft, indicating the RUC may have a fair handling of the current temps aloft.

[wxman57]

I didn't have a chance to see the NWS forecast out the Hou/Galv office last night. Did they do an evening update that called for the front to get here quicker? Temps here are already below 50F (Tomball) and supposed to fall throughout the day to 42F by 5pm. I don't recall that being the forecast I last saw yesterday afternoon. Maybe I'm wrong, can someone verfify? Thanks.

I'm not sure if the local office predicted the front to arrive sooner, but I sure told my cycling buddies yesterday afternoon that it would be here 3-4 hours earlier - by mid morning in downtown Houston.

[dhweather]

FWDNWS tweet:

At 812 AM, a ham 4 miles NW of Gainesville reported a thunderstorm with sleet! 1/4 inch on the ground so far.


THUNDERSLEET !!!

[high_lander]

32 with freezing rain here in the 380 corridor. Grill and truck have ice accumulations.

[high_lander]

FWDNWS tweet:

At 812 AM, a ham 4 miles NW of Gainesville reported a thunderstorm with sleet! 1/4 inch on the ground so far.


THUNDERSLEET !!!

That would be an awesome band name.

[WeatherGuesser]

RUC soundings indicate a very shallow near to sub-freezing layer in Dallas-Ft. Worth this morning with temps rising steadily above about 1000 ft to near 50F at 5000 ft. By mid afternoon, the RUC shrinks the warm nose considerably but temps are forecast to remain 34F-36F between about 1000 ft. above the surface and about 10,000 ft. That's warmer aloft than we were in Houston last Tuesday when we had a mixture of freezing rain and sleet and a few tiny snowflakes as the precip ended. Our temperature during the precip was 29-30F.

Here's a current RUC sounding:

Forgive my not understanding, but does this mean all liquid? Mix? More freezing rain/ice?

Sounding indicates that there is only a very shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface, which translates into cold rain or freezing rain this morning. By mid afternoon, the air aloft is still mostly above freezing between 1000 and 10,000 ft. Only a very shallow freezing layer near the surface. Again, that translates into cold rain or freezing rain. The sub-freezing layer isn't predicted (by the RUC - Rapid Update Cycle model) to be thick enough even for sleet. It's possible that the model could be "off" enough that the freezing rain changes to sleet during the afternoon as the precip starts winding down. And if the RUC is way off then it's possible to see some snow as the precip ends.

If I plot a RUC sounding for stations that are now reporting snow, then I see no above-freezing air aloft, indicating the RUC may have a fair handling of the current temps aloft.

Rain, snow, even sleet are OK. Freezing rain - very bad, especially in any quantity.

So, which is more likely?

[orangeblood]

RUC soundings indicate a very shallow near to sub-freezing layer in Dallas-Ft. Worth this morning with temps rising steadily above about 1000 ft to near 50F at 5000 ft. By mid afternoon, the RUC shrinks the warm nose considerably but temps are forecast to remain 34F-36F between about 1000 ft. above the surface and about 10,000 ft. That's warmer aloft than we were in Houston last Tuesday when we had a mixture of freezing rain and sleet and a few tiny snowflakes as the precip ended. Our temperature during the precip was 29-30F.

The atmospheric profiles and the weather systems between this one and Houston's last week are vastly different...so I'm not sure you can compare the two soundings. The dendritic growth zone in some of those convective bands will produce massive amounts of super cooled snowflakes above this warm layer, thus you would probably see a rapid erosion of that warm layer as precip increase in coverage around DFW. Will it be enough to change to snow?