ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Don't look for much cooling of Nino 3.4 anytime soon, definitely not till December if even that. What's going on in Nino 4 and 3.4 is unprecedented. I know 1997 was stronger in Nino 1+2 but official records of ONI is held by 3.4. This Nino is going to set a new standard there by which future Nino's will likely be measured.

[Hurricaneman]

I can see it fluctuating around +3c until mid December with a little falloff around New Years and a steeper drop as we head into spring and this would make sense as I'm also looking at the negative subsurface anomalies spreading east into the epically warm Subsurface anomalies east of 160W and when it does fall it could fall like a cliff

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[Yellow Evan]

Negative subsurface anomalies would warm up as they move east.

[Hurricaneman]

Negative subsurface anomalies would warm up as they move east.

Its something to watch for as while yes they would warm but could cut into that warm subsurface area east of 160W causing it to weaken

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Negative subsurface anomalies would warm up as they move east.

Its something to watch for as while yes they would warm but could cut into that warm subsurface area east of 160W causing it to weaken

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

If they warm like they're suppose to as they move west, it'd wouldn't cut into the warm subsurface to its east. Any weakening of this event is going to require a change in the trade wind pattern.

Biggest reason to support weakening of this event in the short term is the location MJO, but with the trade wind pattern forecast by the GFS/CFS, I don't see anything in the near term that would cause weakening.

[cycloneye]

The October data of the PDO is out and it has gone down slightly to +1.47 and that is down from the +1.94 that was in the September update.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[LarryWx]

Based on the following: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

Looking at this table for Oct.:

Year 1+2 3 3.4 4
2015 +2.52 +2.66 +2.46 +1.12
2009 +0.17 +0.81 +0.94 +0.99
1997 +3.76 +3.25 +2.54 +0.66
1982 +2.12 +2.19 +1.95 +0.72

When comparing to 2015:
- 2009 isn't similar. Distribution: In 2015, 1+2, 3, & 3.4 are similar to each other with 4 much cooler than the other regions while 2009 has 3, 3.4 & 4 similar to each other with 1+2 much cooler than the other regions (Modoki). Strengthwise, 2015 is way stronger in all regions except it is only slightly stronger in 4.
- 1997 is much closer to 2015 than is 2009 strengthwise though 1997 was clearly east based vs. 2015 being ~evenly based in 1+2, 3, and 3.4.
- 1982 is ~identical to 2015 in terms of distribution. Strengthwise, 2015 is 0.4 to 0.5 warmer in all regions.

Conclusion for ENSO based on Oct.:
1982 is clearly the most similar to 2015. When taking into account global oceanic warming since 1982, the 0.4 to 0.5 warmer 2015 appears to be quite comparable to 1982. 2009 is the least similar to 2015 of these years. So, based on this, alone, (ignoring all other indices), I'd go with 1982 as by far the best analog of these with 1997 next a good ways back and 2009 far back. I'll probably reassess for Nov.

[curtadams]

Based on the following: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

Conclusion for ENSO based on Oct.:
1982 is clearly the most similar to 2015. When taking into account global oceanic warming since 1982, the 0.4 to 0.5 warmer 2015 appears to be quite comparable to 1982. 2009 is the least similar to 2015 of these years. So, based on this, alone, (ignoring all other indices), I'd go with 1982 as by far the best analog of these with 1997 next a good ways back and 2009 far back. I'll probably reassess for Nov.

Wow, great analysis. The comparison to 1982 really puts it in context.

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 up to +3.0C

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 25m25 minutes ago
+3.0C in Nino 3.4 this week using OISSTv2- highest on record! Winter should be interesting... #ElNino #climate

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap!!!! This is the highest weeklies in history!

[Ntxw]

3C...that is crazy

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC historic update of +3.0C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Looks like tropicaltidbits had to adjust the graph up to accommodate even the daily 3C+ readings

[Dean_175]

Interesting bit of info from Paul Roundy from University at Albany:

"The weekly optimum interpolation Nino 3.4 index, among others, has reached its highest level in the observational record since the record began in 1990 (+3C). Although the SST at the coast of South America remains substantially lower than in 1997 at the same time of year, SST anomalies from the Dateline eastward nearly to the Galapagos islands have reached their highest values ever achieved.

Given that this weekly index relies heavily on satellite SST estimates, it may be biased by the relatively calm intraseasonal period of the last week. Calm sunny conditions can generate a thin film of warmer surface water. However, TAO buoy data at 1m depth also show SST near 31C at some buoys immediately east of the dateline, thus also confirming the highest east central Pacific SST ever achieved. New intraseasonal convection and winds developing over the next several days are likely to enhance sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean, thereby moderating the incredible rate of recent warming. "

[Kingarabian]

WOW!!!

[Cyclenall]

Incredible, a historic milestone seen and acknowledged. Its all been building to this and now we watch the bedlam in the atmosphere take off. Frankly I didn't expect to see Nino get to the highest ends anytime in the current generation. I always wanted to watch this level of ENSO intensity play out in real time with modern analysis.

[Ntxw]

Maybe 3.1C next week?

[johngaltfla]

Maybe 3.1C next week?

I'm not the best at graphs but I'd love to see that with a 1982/1997 overlay for comparison's sake as we move forward. This is about the most fascinating El Nino I've seen in a long time.

[Hurricaneman]

The SOI is rising its -8.49 for 30 days which is one of the indicators that el nino has peaked as of maybe this week and at least the ENSO 1\2 region could actually drop and maybe even the eastern end of region 3 so that may be something to watch for the next month or 2

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean_175]

^^ MJO is probably the main reason SOI has risen. It's partially cancelling the El Nino's influence on SOI temporarily. SOI will likely drop again and could reach its lowest value sometime this winter after the peak(which I feel that you are correct in saying it has/is come, at least in terms of OISST weeklies). But many Ninos don't have the strongest SOI until later. In fact the most strongly negative SOI during the 1997 El Nino was not until March 1998, well after the peak.Not 100 percent sure why, but it could have to do with the fact that as the south Pacific warms seasonally from November through March, the effect on the atmosphere from ENSO shifts and changes.