CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[hial2]

New IR frame in, still improving:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Great loop. If you set trop forecast points to display you'll see the eye totally nails the latest forecast point. NHC is doing pretty well so far, especially when you consider how the models where shifting around so much and very uncertain two days ago. I hope the clarity increases and good forecasting continues -- that will save lives.

Don't go by the "bullseye"...NHC changes them every few hours,3 i believe







































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[cycloneye]

349
URNT15 KNHC 172210
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 02 20070817
220030 1742N 06449W 0087 00000 0077 +285 +215 360000 000 999 999 23
220100 1742N 06449W 0085 00000 0077 +285 +213 360000 000 999 999 23
220130 1742N 06449W 0087 00000 0078 +282 +212 360000 000 999 999 23
220200 1742N 06449W 0087 00000 0077 +280 +210 360000 000 999 999 23
220230 1742N 06449W 0086 00000 0077 +280 +209 360000 000 999 999 23
220300 1742N 06449W 0088 00000 0078 +280 +208 360000 000 999 999 23
220330 1742N 06449W 0087 00000 0078 +280 +207 360000 000 999 999 23
220400 1742N 06449W 0087 00000 0079 +280 +205 360000 000 999 999 23
220430 1742N 06449W 0087 00000 0078 +280 +206 360000 000 999 999 23
220500 1742N 06449W 0089 00000 0079 +280 +207 360000 000 999 999 23
220530 1742N 06449W 0084 00000 0076 +287 +208 360000 000 999 999 23
220600 1742N 06449W 0088 00000 0079 +282 +209 360000 000 999 999 23
220630 1742N 06449W 0091 00000 0081 +280 +216 360000 000 999 999 23
220700 1742N 06449W 0089 00000 0079 +280 +215 360000 000 999 999 23
220730 1742N 06449W 0088 00000 0080 +277 +218 093004 014 999 999 23
220800 1742N 06448W 0060 00013 0086 +273 +219 097026 031 999 999 03
220830 1742N 06447W 9843 00237 0109 +251 +216 100033 035 999 999 03
220900 1742N 06446W 9476 00562 0115 +223 +206 094036 037 999 999 03
220930 1742N 06444W 8967 01060 0128 +189 +173 088044 049 999 999 03
221000 1741N 06443W 8595 01426 0130 +172 +135 082049 049 999 999 03
$$



Plane takes off.

[jaxfladude]

"MEAN DEAN"

[canegrl04]

GFS makes no sense.I am seriously wondering if it is on crack

[Extremeweatherguy]

96 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

It is pretty clear that Dean will not be making a turn north on this run. He is too slow and too far south and it looks like he might just die over the southern Yucatan.

I am much more interested in seeing tonight's 00z run. It might have a chance to try to pull a different track since it will have new data to use. We shall see.

I also want to see the 18z ensembles and GFDL. If those are still north, then I think it is clear that the operational GFS is out of whack.

but could it be out of whack on so many consistent runs, wouldn't this be picked up by someone? Just curious and hoping this model does hold some solid credence.

Well this run is actually further south than the 12z run. In fact, it might be the furthest south yet! It moves Dean across the very southern end of the BOC and then possibly out towards the pacific. That is just not very likely, IMO. Also, it seems to slow it down way too much, which I don't understand because if a strong high is really building above it, then it should be going west at a pretty good clip (as it is now). Something just doesn't seem right to me.

[DESTRUCTION5]

IMO this is a classic stall in the WC coming to fruition..

[fasterdisaster]

Latest IR frame shows a clear eye!

[Bgator]

You can see the eye on PR Long Rage radar! Cool!
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[tropicsPR]

Don't be surprised if Dean reaches Cat. 5 status in the western Caribbean...SST are very conducive for great intensification...

[HarlequinBoy]

Here is a picture on Fox News' website from Martinique.




It looks like it was pretty rough in some places.

[BigD]

Eye is actually back to the south of 15N, meaning its current wobble is SOUTH of due West. I was thinking that it might bump the ridge harder as it intensified and end up a tad north of th NHC path. Well, obviously I was wrong and that northern jog got erased quickly.

Gotta hand it to them, they've been almost EXACTLY on the eye path for a while now. I see no reason to doubt that will continue. NHC has done a tremendous job with this one so far.

[hurrican19]

Fine by me! Let it hit Mexico, the US Coastline has had more than enough of our share of storms the past few season's have been devastating to the US! I don't wish a major storm on anyone, but keep it away from the US!

[RL3AO]

Eye is actually back to the south of 15N, meaning its current wobble is SOUTH of due West. I was thinking that it might bump the ridge harder as it intensified and end up a tad north of th NHC path. Well, obviously I was wrong and that northern jog got erased quickly.

Thats a dagger in the heart for a lot of people on here.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, I'm sure we'll wake up to a category 4 tomorrow morning. This is a classic sunset image.

I think we might wake up to a Category 5...

[HeatherAKC]

Mayfield update anyone? *(WPLG-10, Miami)

First Don Noe showed the state of FL superimposed on Dean and Dean is as big as the state of FL!

Max stated that he and the NHC find the GFDL model a BIT troublesome because it has been fairly good in the past.

He also stated that *IF* Dean WAS to take that path (towards LA) then the lower Keys could possibly feel the fringes on Dean and TS force winds.

He also was very clear that the above scenerio is NOT the forecast at this time.

(Please do not read anything else into this post than what I stated. I can hear it now...."Max says it's going to LA!!"..THIS IS NOT THE CASE! No need to panic, the NHC forecast is what we must believe to be true right now)

[ConvergenceZone]

Fine by me! Let it hit Mexico,

Your wish may come true, we'll see........

[cycloneye]

382
URNT15 KNHC 172221
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 03 20070817
221030 1740N 06444W 8317 01710 0133 +154 +115 079050 051 999 999 03
221100 1739N 06446W 8027 02012 0131 +140 +102 078047 048 999 999 03
221130 1738N 06448W 7690 02367 0126 +120 +088 080045 045 999 999 03
221200 1737N 06450W 7433 02655 0127 +101 +077 084045 046 040 004 03
221230 1736N 06452W 7205 02913 0128 +086 +070 083048 048 041 005 03
221300 1734N 06454W 7063 03081 0129 +077 +064 085047 048 045 003 00
221330 1733N 06456W 6973 03189 0129 +070 +056 088049 049 046 004 00
221400 1732N 06457W 6967 03193 0128 +070 +052 088048 049 047 003 00
221430 1731N 06459W 6969 03193 0132 +069 +054 087050 053 046 004 00
221500 1730N 06501W 6963 03199 0129 +069 +068 083048 050 047 004 00
221530 1729N 06503W 6968 03193 0126 +071 +070 080048 049 045 004 00
221600 1728N 06505W 6966 03196 0123 +074 +056 085052 052 045 004 00
221630 1726N 06507W 6967 03196 0125 +073 +048 085052 052 046 004 00
221700 1725N 06509W 6967 03195 0126 +074 +046 085051 052 051 000 00
221730 1724N 06511W 6968 03190 0123 +074 +062 084052 052 046 004 00
221800 1723N 06513W 6965 03195 9990 +079 +999 081054 055 048 001 05
221830 1722N 06515W 6967 03195 9990 +079 +999 080056 056 045 003 01
221900 1721N 06517W 6968 03192 9990 +075 +999 079054 055 046 000 05
221930 1719N 06519W 6967 03194 9990 +078 +999 080052 053 042 004 01
222000 1718N 06520W 6967 03192 0112 +081 +051 078052 054 050 004 03
$$

[fsusurfer]

this storm has been going west or slightly WNW basically since it was formed. I dont think there's much going on to make it deviate from its path. Mexcio, get ready!

[Stratosphere747]

Watch the trend with the GFDL. NHC is concerned enough with what this model is picking up on to keep an eye on it.

[chrisnnavarre]

hi hoooo hi hoooo, its off to mexico dean goes..... Serriously, this thing has been on a western slightly NNW course since it formed. I don't see it making to much of a deviation.

GFDL trending north is reason for concern. Especially if you live along the Northern Gulf Coast. I don't like the weakness present in the synoptic situation this weekend. Especially since this storm is as big as the size of Texas.