ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Brent]

Track shifted west with delayed landfall:

[RL3AO]

Track shifted way west:

More like slight track shift west changed landfall point way north.

[tampastorm]

Its probably slowing because the LLC is trying to get tucked under that deep convection to the west. Radar and Satellite imagery really doesn't suggest a NW movement, still WNW. And there is no argument to whether or not it is deepening, pressure has been falling with Fay today.

I agree all very well said.

[Extremeweatherguy]

5pm Advisory calls for an 85mph Hurricane just west of Tampa by 2pm on Tuesday.

[Frank P]

Does not bode well for Tampa/St Pete... would not be shocked if it tracked a little further west on next update.... all depends on when it starts that NW and N track... opinion only FWIW

[KWT]

Yep NHC track has only shifted a little but it makes a world of difference to landfall and may make a difference in terms of strength as well we shall see.

I think the current NHC track is about right, I don't think this will shift much more west than where its at now to be honest.

[carjackistan]

For someone living in Southwest Florida this forecast track evolution is all too familiar. Not saying this will be another Charlie in terms of track (or anything else) but any storm on this sort of path is still a threat for a direct hit from Marco to Pensacola.

Track shifted way west:

More like slight track shift west changed landfall point way north.

Exactly.

[storms in NC]

May I ask If you all read any thing I Write? Before any one said any thing about the turn north I told you all She was getting ready to turn north and I had backed up what I said. I know I am not the best person to write. But each year I keep trying to a lease make friends here. Some of you I have know from way back from TWC board. I am here all day a lone and I can't get out much for I am disable now and stay in a lot of pain. But I really love the weather. I am not young like most of you all I guess that may be it. I am sorry I have wasted space here. Now I will stop trying and will sit back and just read what you all have to say.


Deb

[jaxfladude]

Track shifted west with delayed landfall:

boooooooooooooooooooo!

[tampastorm]

Yep NHC track has only shifted a little but it makes a world of difference to landfall and may make a difference in terms of strength as well we shall see.

I think the current NHC track is about right, I don't think this will shift much more west than where its at now to be honest.

This could give Fay an extra 6-12 hours over water,

[Normandy]

Because of the angle of approach, it could mean the difference between a weak TS and a potential major hurricane. Depending on where it tracks and where it tracks, it could spend anywhere from 24-40 hours over water after leaving Cuba.

[SoupBone]

May I ask If you all read any thing I Write? Before any one said any thing about the turn north I told you all She was getting ready to turn north and I had backed up what I said. I know I am not the best person to write. But each year I keep trying to a lease make friends here. Some of you I have know from way back from TWC board. I am here all day a lone and I can't get out much for I am disable now and stay in a lot of pain. But I really love the weather. I am not young like most of you all I guess that may be it. I am sorry I have wasted space here. Now I will stop trying and will sit back and just read what you all have to say.


Deb

Ummmm....what?

[Aric Dunn]

storm surge for tampa will be worse with that track

[jaxfladude]

I OFFICIALLY HATE FAY!!!!

[chris_fit]

May I ask If you all read any thing I Write? Before any one said any thing about the turn north I told you all She was getting ready to turn north and I had backed up what I said. I know I am not the best person to write. But each year I keep trying to a lease make friends here. Some of you I have know from way back from TWC board. I am here all day a lone and I can't get out much for I am disable now and stay in a lot of pain. But I really love the weather. I am not young like most of you all I guess that may be it. I am sorry I have wasted space here. Now I will stop trying and will sit back and just read what you all have to say.


Deb

I for one read each and every post and form my own opinions about the track, intensity, and the like of the storms. Really interesting to see how and what people think and their reason for it, when it comes to tropical weather.

[KWT]

Well 6-12hrs more over water would allow for some more deepening clearly, esp if by that time the system has a decent inner core, also with the upper high nearby should provide decent enough set-up by that time.

landfall of 75kts is pretty strong, enough to cause some fairly strong damage I'd suppose.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have added 2am times, and you can see just how slowly the NHC expects this thing to move...



The west coast could be in for an absolutely awful period of weather!

[Aric Dunn]

center is clearly trying to tuck under that convection if it succeeds we should see soem intensification

[Shockwave]

May I ask If you all read any thing I Write? Before any one said any thing about the turn north I told you all She was getting ready to turn north and I had backed up what I said. I know I am not the best person to write. But each year I keep trying to a lease make friends here. Some of you I have know from way back from TWC board. I am here all day a lone and I can't get out much for I am disable now and stay in a lot of pain. But I really love the weather. I am not young like most of you all I guess that may be it. I am sorry I have wasted space here. Now I will stop trying and will sit back and just read what you all have to say.


Deb

It's not you. This storm has EVERYONE up in arms about what Fay will do next and why isn't she growing, that we really don't know who says what when. These pages have been changing in less then 5 minutes each time (Which is amazing! Good posting everyone!) so somethings you say or mention will get put on the next page where no one will see it. Hope you continue to post on here. You've been on here for a while and I guess that means your good!

[KWT]

EWG, yep the NHC really have this only slowly moving northwards, would suggest a fairly long period of tropical storm force winds, I'd also imagine a big risk of tornadoes given the dirty side will remain over Florida throughout.