ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

Looks like to me it is reforming the western eyewall right now as we speak...going over one of the Bahama Islands right now and heading NNW...I agree with Aric though as well about the wnw wobbles...but the main heading is still 330 to 340...

[Dave]

[Aric Dunn]

Recon pass.. center is about 26.28N 77.12W which is about dead center over Abbaco Island

[SunnyThoughts]

Just glanced at the recon thread, and see 947mb as pressure...is that the lowest we've seen so far with the storm? Haven't been around much this morning.

[BlueIce]

Looks like to me it is reforming the western eyewall right now as we speak...going over one of the Bahama Islands right now and heading NNW...I agree with Aric though as well about the wnw wobbles...but the main heading is still 330 to 340...

Maybe an hour before we see some real clearing. Then recon should be getting underway to get some data for model analysis.

[seahawkjd]

Grats Aric on evidently just being promoted.

[ROCK]

Anti-cyclone just got a lot closer


http://i.imgur.com/yrI2F.pngquote]


scary thought....BTW- no offense to you NYC guys but "catch basins" really? cleaning those out aint going to mean diddly poo when all your trees get blown over. I dont think they realize what's about to happen...

Perhaps you missed that they have 143,000 catch basins. That's nothing to sneeze at. And, on top of that, they've been doing a lot of work on the sewers so they feel like they're really ahead of the game.

If this wasn't so serious it would be far funnier. As it is, its just sad.

No I didnt miss it...Sewer work, seriously? have you ever been through a hurricane of any Cat? what happens when you lose power? if no generator pumps go down and sewers back up. They should be clearing all the over grown trees and ground cover in these areas....but I am afraid its too late for that. JB warned them...

[SunnyThoughts]

WTG ARic, congrats...you deserve it. You provide a LOT of info for everyone and we all appreciate it very much.

[Dave]

Anyone have the updated kmz file for nhc plots? If so drop the link here.

Bottom of this page, "TRACK":
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/archive_for ... ne%20IRENE

Direct link for 11AM EDT on 8/25:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _TRACK.kmz

Thanks Chris...got it!

[chris_fit]

Recon pass.. center is about 26.28N 77.12W which is about dead center over Abbaco Island

Indeed looks like it wobled right over the island...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html see frame 16:45

[Dave]

533
URNT15 KNHC 251745
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 14 20110825
173530 2633N 07707W 6969 02720 9500 +164 +069 132046 047 /// /// 03
173600 2634N 07705W 6968 02729 9511 +164 +070 134047 049 046 000 03
173630 2635N 07704W 6969 02737 9529 +155 +069 133052 052 047 000 00
173700 2636N 07703W 6967 02751 9546 +149 +067 136055 056 050 001 03
173730 2638N 07701W 6968 02759 9558 +148 +067 132057 058 080 009 03
173800 2639N 07700W 6965 02769 9568 +145 +066 133059 059 065 002 03
173830 2640N 07659W 6970 02772 9585 +139 +065 133065 067 073 005 00
173900 2641N 07657W 6963 02787 9598 +135 +065 136071 073 074 008 00
173930 2643N 07656W 6970 02793 9628 +117 +064 138075 076 079 013 00
174000 2644N 07654W 6963 02810 9656 +101 +063 141085 086 077 017 00
174030 2645N 07653W 6968 02814 9670 +100 +059 139085 087 075 024 00
174100 2646N 07652W 6970 02827 9696 +093 +055 139090 091 062 039 00
174130 2647N 07650W 6973 02839 9714 +091 +052 133085 088 075 027 00
174200 2648N 07649W 6962 02864 9709 +106 +050 134084 084 075 022 00
174230 2650N 07648W 6970 02864 9727 +101 +048 136083 084 076 015 00
174300 2651N 07647W 6954 02892 9744 +096 +048 137089 093 074 016 00
174330 2652N 07645W 6976 02875 9766 +085 +047 134091 091 073 018 00
174400 2653N 07644W 6966 02899 9767 +094 +045 135089 090 072 011 00
174430 2654N 07643W 6969 02903 9771 +099 +043 135087 088 072 011 00
174500 2655N 07641W 6963 02916 9772 +106 +043 136086 087 070 008 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

nice job Aric...

[Mouton]

Settlement Point GBI station report:

Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
1:00 pm N ( 8 deg ) 36 kts
12:50 pm N ( 4 deg ) 34 kts
12:40 pm N ( 356 deg ) 27 kts
12:30 pm N ( 5 deg ) 26 kts
12:20 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 28 kts
12:10 pm NE ( 34 deg ) 33 kts

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT) GDR GST
12:48 pm N ( 360 deg ) 44

[MGC]

Those poor people in NYC don't have a clue about a hurricane. Just as I am an authority on blizzards...NOT! I wonder how many billions of dollars in damage Irene is going to cause? Could it top Katrina?.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Those poor people in NYC don't have a clue about a hurricane. Just as I am an authority on blizzards...NOT! I wonder how many billions of dollars in damage Irene is going to cause? Could it top Katrina?.....MGC

I couldn't agree more.

I have a feeling with the accelerating forward speed of the system, it is going to pack quite a punch even if it is weakening on the way into New York.

I hope they are preparing. This is a big deal.

[Dave]

[CronkPSU]

WTG Aric, you have been so awesome during this storm for all of us amateurs!

Seeing these prep talks from the Northern mayors except for Philly who I think really is taking it seriously leaves me shaking my head and hoping these models don't verify...they are not ready at all, to be fair, us Southeners have no idea when an ice or snow storm hits what to do...

like they would say in Game of Thrones... You know nothing, Northeasterners

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...EYE OF IRENE OVER ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[JPmia]

Settlement Point GBI station report:

Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
1:00 pm N ( 8 deg ) 36 kts
12:50 pm N ( 4 deg ) 34 kts
12:40 pm N ( 356 deg ) 27 kts
12:30 pm N ( 5 deg ) 26 kts
12:20 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 28 kts
12:10 pm NE ( 34 deg ) 33 kts

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT) GDR GST
12:48 pm N ( 360 deg ) 44

weblink?? I can only find a bouy that the storm will pass later tonight:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

oh and congrats Aric.. you provide some good analysis here. thanks for that.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...EYE OF IRENE OVER ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES