ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RL3AO]

11am track and 5pm track over layed. You can see the track shift to the west wasn't that big, but it changed the landfall location (red line) dramatically.

[jaxfladude]

I have added 2am times, and you can see just how slowly the NHC expects this thing to move...



The west coast could be in for an absolutely awful period of weather!

Ouch, not a major hurricane, but still bad due to forecast of slow forward movement and track and given the geography of the west coast of Florida land wise and ocean floor wise.....not good at all....plus the dirty side of Fay will hit some heavily populated areas..

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

feeders...

[srainhoutx]

Yep NHC track has only shifted a little but it makes a world of difference to landfall and may make a difference in terms of strength as well we shall see.

I think the current NHC track is about right, I don't think this will shift much more west than where its at now to be honest.

As far as tonight is concerned IMHO. The FL Keys is the first real concern for the NHC/TPC at this time. Beyond that, they'll have time to make adjustments.

[dixiebreeze]

Nice view -- pretty definitive:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

[Ground_Zero_92]

And a lot more time over water which means a lot more time to strengthen.

11am track and 5pm track over layed. You can see the track shift to the west wasn't that big, but it changed the landfall location (red line) dramatically.

[funster]

EWG, yep the NHC really have this only slowly moving northwards, would suggest a fairly long period of tropical storm force winds, I'd also imagine a big risk of tornadoes given the dirty side will remain over Florida throughout.

I wonder how many there will be? Can they accurately forecast how many tornadoes a storm can spawn?

[KWT]

center is clearly trying to tuck under that convection if it succeeds we should see soem intensification

I still see the circulation about the same distance as it has been from the convection compared with 4-6hrs ago:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Saying all that the convection further east does appear to just now move back towards the center...

[TheRingo]

Does it seem like a jog to the east at the end of this run?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[HURAKAN]

Just went outside and said "hi" to Fay. Nice strong shower passing by!

[johngaltfla]

Track shifted west with delayed landfall:

That is what I call bad news for those in Spring Hill and other points to the NW of Tampa. The Bay will get the surge but the folks up there will get the risk of the Charlie effect with prolonged time over the Gulf Stream and the hot, waters of the Gulf.

The 0500 advisory and discussion are the ones I'm waiting one. I just can not see boarding up now. I'll do it in the morning if need be.

[KWT]

Yep Ground_Zero_92, gives it a good 12hrs which even in modest atmospheric conditions would allow for some decent strengthening esp if an inner core is set-up by that time.

[Noles2006]

Does it seem like a jog to the east at the end of this run?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Eh... you shouldn't try to estimate movement of a storm by looking at WV loops...

[Jason_B]

Does it seem like a jog to the east at the end of this run?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I think that's the convection giving off a illusion, it has however REALLY slowed down. Might be an indication that it is about to turn N and maybe NNE soon.

[johngaltfla]

11am track and 5pm track over layed. You can see the track shift to the west wasn't that big, but it changed the landfall location (red line) dramatically.

Nice comparison! If you can overlay the 2300 and 0500 paths on this, we might have a darned good idea of the final destination in 36 hours. As it sits now, if I lived anywhere from Bonita Beach to Crystal River my attention would be focused on her.

[jaxfladude]

Bad set up...!!!!
Risk of tornadoes for my area if track verifies...

[CrazyC83]

11am track and 5pm track over layed. You can see the track shift to the west wasn't that big, but it changed the landfall location (red line) dramatically.

Nice comparison! If you can overlay the 2300 and 0500 paths on this, we might have a darned good idea of the final destination in 36 hours. As it sits now, if I lived anywhere from Bonita Beach to Crystal River my attention would be focused on her.

Anywhere from Naples to Apalachicola is at serious risk.

[MiamiensisWx]

THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY
FROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM
COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION. THE
NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/172105.shtml

Good discussion from the NHC has been compiled...

[ronjon]

Nice view -- pretty definitive:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

Dixie, I starting to get nervous now. I hope this west trend continues (sorry panhandle folks). About the worst possible path now for Hernando, Citrus, & Levy residents at the 5 PM advisory. Looks like a direct hit on Cedar Key. With about 12-24 hrs more hours over water, yikes! The NE GOM is like bath water.

[srainhoutx]

THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY
FROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM
COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION. THE
NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/172105.shtml

My thoughts continue for "our interests" in the FL Keys and SW FL.