ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

Should be a recon report of frequent lightning in the next 12 hours....

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312055
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20160831
204600 2514N 08715W 8420 01547 0044 +192 +159 053003 004 026 001 00
204630 2513N 08714W 8419 01549 0046 +191 +165 113007 010 026 000 00
204700 2511N 08714W 8422 01543 0044 +186 +168 108006 011 026 000 00
204730 2509N 08715W 8420 01547 0046 +187 +160 013002 003 028 000 00
204800 2507N 08714W 8420 01547 0044 +189 +161 059002 003 029 000 03
204830 2506N 08713W 8408 01553 0044 +186 +166 126003 004 026 002 00
204900 2504N 08713W 8421 01543 0043 +187 +173 122005 005 035 000 00
204930 2502N 08713W 8420 01549 0046 +188 +170 097004 005 034 001 00
205000 2500N 08713W 8420 01548 0047 +189 +173 110006 006 036 000 00
205030 2458N 08714W 8417 01552 0045 +193 +166 122007 009 034 000 00
205100 2456N 08714W 8420 01547 0040 +197 +163 124007 009 033 000 00
205130 2454N 08715W 8420 01548 0040 +197 +169 136011 012 032 001 00
205200 2452N 08716W 8423 01541 0035 +201 +167 125010 012 032 001 00
205230 2451N 08716W 8433 01530 0031 +208 +165 070009 011 033 001 00
205300 2449N 08717W 8432 01530 0029 +207 +166 022012 014 034 000 00
205330 2447N 08717W 8430 01534 0029 +208 +163 352015 016 024 000 00
205400 2445N 08718W 8433 01526 0030 +203 +167 348018 019 020 000 00
205430 2443N 08718W 8405 01554 0030 +201 +166 333016 018 020 000 00
205500 2441N 08719W 8397 01567 0038 +191 +172 302017 017 023 000 00
205530 2439N 08719W 8408 01551 0034 +191 +176 278021 023 027 000 00

[psyclone]

that's a good bump west. Probs for 50kt winds don't even register south of Levy county now. I'm kind of surprised they're maintaining the hurricane watch in that region. perhaps an abundance of caution in case of tropical trickery.

[benh316]

hahah they did move it west again. ok i'm done

I'm in tears laughing because this has got to be frustrating for those of us with little trust in the integrity of the modeling. It's part tragic and part comedic.

And just like the storm - I don't know which is winning - either way I'm in tears

[Aric Dunn]

I take that back recon finds it quite a bit farther south than the last pass. a little better defined too.pressure down to 1002mb

[drezee]

I take that back recon finds it quite a bit farther south than the last pass. a little better defined too.pressure down to 1002mb

Like I said, I think they aligned at 2030...watch out from here

[xcool22]

imo not move nne looking to me stationary or move N
just said okay

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Category6]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

why are they moving westward when it's been drifting NE most of the day?

Anyone? I'm really confused

[txwatcher91]

I take that back recon finds it quite a bit farther south than the last pass. a little better defined too.pressure down to 1002mb

Possibly stacking with the MLC? As drezee noted that could be taking place...

[OuterBanker]

Because of the major bump west many more will be affected. This should soak major metropolitan areas from Fl to Md.

[StormHunter72]

It's a mess all the weather is east.

[StormTracker]

recon finding the center just south of the previous pass. still just bouncing around with the convection. no turn yet. models will adjust should already be moving at least 5kts.

Aric are you FL already?

[gatorcane]

Tampa radar shows training in full progress. I am looking forward to seeing the rainfall totals for the Tampa area from Hermine. Goes to show even far from the center, you can have major effects from these systems. This rainfall could even surpass the rainfall totals from the system last year that dumped so much rain over West-Central Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

thats a pretty good jump south..

24.817N 87.283W

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312105
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20160831
205600 2437N 08720W 8420 01542 0039 +188 +176 272022 024 034 001 00
205630 2435N 08720W 8420 01547 0042 +183 //// 267024 030 042 014 01
205700 2433N 08721W 8354 01608 0039 +176 //// 259032 035 034 014 01
205730 2431N 08721W 8374 01585 0032 +186 //// 272032 034 036 012 01
205800 2429N 08721W 8392 01568 0039 +180 //// 253034 036 036 010 01
205830 2428N 08722W 8419 01543 0039 +183 //// 243034 035 038 008 01
205900 2426N 08722W 8424 01535 0044 +177 //// 231039 041 037 008 01
205930 2424N 08723W 8430 01533 0044 +178 //// 226038 039 034 009 01
210000 2423N 08723W 8420 01541 0039 +181 //// 223039 040 037 005 01
210030 2421N 08724W 8414 01544 0031 +189 +178 227039 040 038 003 00
210100 2419N 08724W 8430 01533 0035 +192 +177 224040 043 038 002 00
210130 2418N 08725W 8436 01528 0041 +189 +182 224037 038 039 001 00
210200 2416N 08726W 8425 01540 0042 +188 +187 231038 040 038 002 00
210230 2415N 08726W 8419 01549 0035 +199 +178 234038 038 040 000 00
210300 2413N 08726W 8420 01544 0036 +200 +173 228041 041 043 000 00
210330 2411N 08726W 8420 01544 0041 +191 +172 224040 041 042 000 00
210400 2410N 08726W 8421 01547 0044 +190 +172 224040 040 042 000 00
210430 2408N 08726W 8420 01549 0045 +190 +175 225041 042 042 000 00
210500 2406N 08726W 8421 01545 0043 +193 +168 224043 044 041 000 00
210530 2404N 08726W 8421 01552 0047 +194 +165 222043 043 039 000 00

Returning to the wind core near the remnant MLC.

[psyclone]

Tampa radar shows training in full progress. I am looking forward to seeing the rainfall totals for the Tampa area from Hermine. Goes to show even far from the center, you can have major effects from these systems. This rainfall could even surpass the rainfall totals from the system last year that dumped so much rain over West-Central Florida.

9.5" reported in Largo today. It is thumping.

[northjaxpro]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

why are they moving westward when it's been drifting NE most of the day?

Anyone? I'm really confused

well, this just continues the perplexity of Hermine. I agree I think also it has been wobbling slighly east of north most of the day. But, NHC is saying not only N/NE but at a bit faster forward speed at 7 mph.

[OntarioEggplant]

Wow those are some much higher winds on the south side. 44 KT FL and 43 KT SFMR from the west.

[gatorcane]

Navy SAT loop always good to look at when something is in the Gulf:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[mobilebay]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

why are they moving westward when it's been drifting NE most of the day?

Anyone? I'm really confused

Although Hermine is drifting NNE the model trend is trending a little further west than before. Meaning the models are not taking it quiet as far east as before. Hope this helps