Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

PRC023-067-097-125-020530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0030.101002T0138Z-101002T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
938 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CABO ROJO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
HORMIGUEROS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN GERMAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 130 AM AST

* AT 930 PM AST...U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED THAT RIO GUANAJIBO
AT MUNICIPALITIES OF CABO ROJO...HORMIGUEROS...MAYAGUEZ AND SAN
GERMAN WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND CONTINUING RISING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WAS AT 20.22 FEET AND THE FLOOD STAGE IS AT 20.0 FEET.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 1814 6720 1818 6717 1811 6703 1807 6704

$$

FIGUEROA

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Great job Gusty! Thanks for the difficult task to translate the text from French to English.

With other words..... bad weather in the next 3-4 days in the whole of the Caribbean.

Take care Islanders! We are used to it but this might bring some surprises. Monsoon like weather with tropical waves in it to make it a little more messy ones in a while in the next days.

Strange weather pattern. Be vigilant and take care......... I will

Thanks that's why i love my carib friends You're right we can expect bad weather on the whole of the Caribbean. Yeah excellent advice Expat2carib, very suspicious things can happen at anything let's continue to follow closely 97L...
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

...THE INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW
AND CREATE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

AMZ710-021015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SC.Y.0056.101002T1600Z-101004T1600Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1003 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON AST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON AST
MONDAY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DIMINISHED DURING THE EARLY EVENING
LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER LAND. HOWEVER...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOVING NORTHWARDS TOWARDS
THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND JUST SOUTH OF SAINT
CROIX. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
AFFECT PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.

THE TUTT CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...AS
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION. LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING REMAINED SIGNIFICANTLY
MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES NOW NEAR 2.50 INCHES. THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
WESTWARD...AS THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACCOMPANYING A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST... THEN ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO THE POPS AND WEATHER AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY WET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
THE ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED AND RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN
AT HIGH LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY
AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEREAFTER MAY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE REST
OF THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS TISX AND TIST AND TJPS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT
LEAST 02/12Z. AFTER 02/14Z SHRA OR TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES...PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. THIS SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ...TJPS AND TJSJ. TJSJ 02/00Z
INDICATED LLVL WINDS FROM THE ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS...BECOMING FROM
THE NORTH ALOFT.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

PRC017-039-091-101-020645-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0031.101002T0241Z-101002T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-MOROVIS PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-
1041 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BARCELONETA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
CIALES MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MANATI MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 245 AM AST

AT 1035 PM AST...U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS INDICATED THAT RIO GRANDE DE
MANATI AT MUNICIPALITIES OF BARCELONETA...CIALES...MANATI AND
MOROVIS WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND CONTINUING RISING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WAS AT 25.40 FEET AND THE FLOOD STAGE IS AT 25.0 FEET.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6657 1849 6650 1834 6643 1832 6648

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Much more flood watches and warnings expected this weekend in NE Caribbean as this complex situation unfolds.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

PRZ001>008-012-013-VIZ001-002-021615-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0012.101003T0600Z-101004T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...
ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
414 AM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE
AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES TO THE EAST OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE
CONTINUED MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST
NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REACH THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE EASTERN END
OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE REST
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

* SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EMBEDDED IN AREA OF EXTREMELY HIGH VALUES OF WATER AND IS
PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND HALF PER HOUR.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF UPSLOPE FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS SYSTEM POSES A THREAT OF
MODERATE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. MODERATE FLOODING MEANS THAT
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS WITH
INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK THAT COULD CAUSE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADDRESSED IN THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THRU SUN. SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE LEEWARDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WWD ACROSS PR/USVI SUN. A SFC LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THIS TROF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARDS TO THE EAST FOR
SVRL HUNDRED MILES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST OVR THE
NEXT 36 HRS AND MOVE ACROSS PR ON SUN. SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHT
"DRYING" NOTED ON BOTH WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF TROF AXIS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS ERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI DURING THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...OVR WRN PR THE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE. STEERING WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY
TODAY WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY
AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN ACTIVITY WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PR. I BELIEVE TODAY WILL BE THE BEST
DAY THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF FORECAST VERIFIES. PLEASE REFER TO FFA FOR
MORE DETAILS IN SHORT TERM RAINFALL/FLOODING FCST.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM ALG THE SFC TROF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS AND SVRL NCEP MEMBERS
INDICATE THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
48 HRS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A WELL-DEFINED H85-H5 CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF PR NEXT
WEEK BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE FORCING NECESSARY TO GENERATE PERSISTENT
RAINS THAT COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE (PW VALUES NEAR 3.0 INCHES) COULD RESULT IN
A VERY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS ON NEXT WEEKS MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND THE VI
TAF SITES THROUGH 02/16Z. AFT 02/16Z...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJSJ IN SHRA/TSRA.

A DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS STILL EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TNCM
AND TKPK AFT 02/16Z...SPREADING ACROSS THE VI AND PR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 4-6 FEET ACROSS ATLC WATERS AND 2-3 FT
ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS. TSTMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 50 100 100 90
STT 86 78 87 79 / 50 100 100 100

[cycloneye]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY THAT COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED THROUGH TIME AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE NECESSARY FORCING TO GENERATE HEAVY
AND PERSISTENT RAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHER OR LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW LONG IT TAKES
FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...ALL OF
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND ALL OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE AT RISK OF EXPERIENCING SOME FLOODING.

GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND THE VERY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THIS EVENT POSES A THREAT OF AT LEAST
MODERATE FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL AS FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES
AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS POSSIBLE.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FOR SHORT TERM FLOODING POTENTIAL...PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE AVAILABLE FROM OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN.

$$
ROSA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

Good morning Gusty,Luis, bvigal, and all our other friends.

Gusty, in that image, I can't even see St.Maarten. it looks like we are buried under tons of convection. Actually we have had very little rain thus far. ..just light showers..
I hope it stays that way.

Stay dry everyone!
and be careful!

[Gustywind]

Good morning Gusty,Luis, bvigal, and all our other friends.

Gusty, in that image, I can't even see St.Maarten. it looks like we are buried under tons of convection. Actually we have had very little rain thus far. ..just light showers..
I hope it stays that way.

Stay dry everyone!
and be careful!

Yeah Barbara, hopefully looks like we're spared from the strong convective activity. Nothing here no wind no showers, but a nice coverage cloud. As usual let's continue to monitor the situation. Be aware and vigilant.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:42 PM GMT on October 02, 2010

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

PRC009-013-017-019-039-043-047-054-073-075-091-101-107-113-141-143-
145-149-022115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0449.101002T1821Z-101002T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COAMO PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-AIBONITO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-
JAYUYA PR-OROCOVIS PR-MOROVIS PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
BARCELONETA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-MANATI PR-PONCE PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
ARECIBO PR-
221 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...FLORIDA...AIBONITO...BARRANQUITAS...
JAYUYA...OROCOVIS...MOROVIS...UTUADO...VILLALBA...VEGA ALTA...
BARCELONETA...JUANA DIAZ...MANATI...PONCE...VEGA BAJA AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 216 PM AST...U.S.G.S. GAGES AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING
MOST OF THESE MUNICIPALITIES. GAGE REPORTS INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA
AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 515 PM. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS...AND FLOODING OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6670 1847 6652 1845 6637 1826 6627
1812 6628 1807 6644 1810 6664

$$

BCS

[vbhoutex]

Do you guys ever catch a break? It seems like all you have had this season rain and more rain and then some more rain. Are you guys way over normals or is my perception wrong? Stay safe please!!

[expat2carib]

Difficult to say. Puerto Rico is getting far above average and St. Thomas is under average. And the 2 Islands are just some few miles apart.

Very local...I experience. Strange but true

[cycloneye]

David, as my friend from Dominica said, not all the islands have see above normal rainfall this year,but the majority of them have record above average rainfall.I think Barbados has well above normal precipitation as abajan has posted here.

[cycloneye]

Flood Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

PRC003-011-067-097-099-117-022230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0450.101002T1937Z-101002T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MOCA PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-
337 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 333 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGER
REPORTS INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF MAYAGUEZ.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ADVISED AREA SINCE APPROXIMATELY 230 PM AST...AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO VERY
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THIS AREA...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS
SHOULD EXPECT AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THROUGH AT
LEAST 630 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6720 1825 6725 1827 6727 1838 6729
1837 6706 1816 6706 1814 6720

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

Is not common to have 100% chance of rain, but they have it for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FEATURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL TRACK WEST NORTHWEST PRODUCING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST NORTHWEST...AND ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LARGE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANALYSIS
FROM CIMSS AND SATELLITE IMAGES...SHOW A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2.5 TO 3.0 INCHES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THE ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED AND RIVERS AND
STREAMS REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEXT WEEK...AS
DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
INDICATING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...WE HAVE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE POPS AND WEATHER AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE MARINE AND WIND GRIDS
WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
SURGES OF MODERATE EAST SWELLS DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE... EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS IN EFFECT FOR UNPROTECTED
WATERS DUE TO 20 KT WINDS AND SIX FOOT SEAS. THERE IS A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR TODAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 89 / 100 100 90 90
STT 79 88 79 88 / 100 100 100 90

[cycloneye]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND POSSIBLY LONGER. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TIME AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
BEGINNING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE NECESSARY FORCING TO
GENERATE HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHER OR
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS WELL
AS ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ARE AT RISK OF EXPERIENCING SOME
FLOODING.

GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THIS EVENT POSES A THREAT OF MUD
AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OF AT LEAST MODERATE
FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS
NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS POSSIBLE.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FOR SHORT TERM FLOODING POTENTIAL...PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE AVAILABLE FROM OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN.

$$

SR/WS