ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

CMC does nothing with it....but a very sharp TW coming in behind it at 144hr...

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

convection on the increase but it did this last night also....needs to persist and pop a LLC in the hottest water in the basin....

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uarrow: I wouldn't write it off just yet, especially as we are approaching the peak of the season.

I know that. Im not writing it off, its just my hopes are not as high as they were before. Thats all.

[SouthFloridawx]

Growing convection this evening..

[Kohlecane]

Growing convection this evening..

yeah i agree its starting to build Convection on it Western Portion, But Holy Goods, i never knew how Gert could look so good!

[South Texas Storms]

Convection is really starting to blow up with ex Invest 93L tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[abajan]

Convection is really starting to blow up with ex Invest 93L tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

You got that right! It ain't over till it's over, folks. I knew something was up because it's darker outside than it should be for this time in the morning at this time of year.

[South Texas Storms]

6z NAM starts to develop Ex Invest 93L once it enters the Caribbean in a few days and really begins to strengthen it just SE of Jamaica in 84 hours.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[floridasun78]

let see if nhc bring back invest 93l

[OURAGAN]

Pressure is falling at buoy 41101 east of Martnique, 1009,6 MB now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[Gustywind]

Here is the twave in vicinity of the islands. Looks like two bulks of heavy convection are moving near the Windwards/Leewards Islands.

[Gustywind]

Little closeup of the blob of strong convection becoming pretty close to Martinica, Dominica and Guadeloupe.

[Gustywind]

For those who lived in Martinica and Guadeloupe ... Yellow alert for strong showers and thunderstorms have been requiered at 6AM.
Looks like wet wetter conditions should spread til Wednesday before an improvement Thursday.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[KWT]

Yet another dual blob presentation I see!

There is enough to this convection to suggest that in the western Caribbean its got a good chance.

[floridasun78]

Pressure is falling at buoy 41101 east of Martnique, 1009,6 MB now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1010.6 mb it say pressure up by 1

[floridasun78]

let see if 8am outlook talk about it

[KWT]

the GFS kills it into CA again....but does develope something behind it into a super cane....

Probably a reasonable solution, wouldn't shock me if it does make a run at development before it hits CA but we'll have to see!

[KWT]

let see if nhc bring back invest 93l

Probably not enough organisation with it to come back with 93L, convection has increased but still got a way to go yet!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N T0
17N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.


$$
MT

[Blown Away]

Deserves a 10% Yellow polygon at 8am, IMO!