ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

to be honest, cat 5 is not impossible. I know its early. However, everything looks incredibly favorable

especially given is smaller size...

[northjaxpro]

Well, one thing is for sure. The surf along the United States East Coast is going to be rather amazing later this week and beyond, especially if Joaquin really becomes an intense major tropical cyclone.

[hurricanedude]

wouldnt a cat 4 or five almost certainly move more out.....stronger may be better for east coast?

[Aric Dunn]

00z bending back towards the coast very strong. 930"s

[Hurricaneman]

wouldnt a cat 4 or five almost certainly move more out.....stronger may be better for east coast?

Not with that blocking high keeping that from happening, it would actually be a much worse disaster

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

talk about one of the worst case scenarios..

[Hurricaneman]

That GFS run would bring 100mph+ winds to DC which would be a national disaster possibly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

this is going to also grow significantly in size

[Aric Dunn]

latest sat image.. one new little burst beginning.. lets see how much it explodes.

[LarryWx]

Well, Joaquin did originate from the large ULL whcih was north of the Leewards, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout all last week. The large ULL then interacted with a surface trough and found an area of less hospitable shear to allow for the rare transition of ULL to tropical cyclone. I take some pride in being the first to call for such development from the ULL to possibly take place last week.

The upper low originated from a trough that came off the NC coast on September 15: http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images ... rigin.html

And yes, you do take pride in that call, mentioning it every chance you can.

HurricaneBelle,
Because I gave jax kudos for this great call, I'd like to say a few things about this:
1) He didn't initially say anything about this coup til several, including myself and I think ozonepete, gave him kudos. He took the time to thank each of us for doing that. I appreciated that. Excluding those thank you posts, I don't think he has mentioned this more than a couple of times including tonight.
2) To help build reputation for a poster making good calls and get people to pay more attention to that poster's future calls on a very crowded forum like this, I don't see a problem with an occasional reminder of a coup from that actual poster. Remember that not every reader reads every post. Also, it is good for record-keeping purposes here and also helps readers learn more about wx predicting.
3) It isn't as if he makes calls like this about upper lows often.
4) It is uncommon for upper lows to do this as I assume you know. So, not an easy call. He should be proud.
5) Please be honest. Would you say nothing about a similar coup you, alone, were to make here if nobody else said anything? Just let it be potentially forgotten? If I were in his shoes, I'd say something for the record, if nothing else. If a tree falls and there is no animal nearby to hear it, does it make a sound?

[tropicwatch]

That GFS run would bring 100mph+ winds to DC which would be a national disaster possibly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Does that include congress

[tolakram]

live ir loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[AutoPenalti]

What's amazing is how fast this exploded into a well defined system, under El Niño conditions.

[tropicwatch]

I noted earlier so I'm wondering if it sucked in a bit of dry air--the overall appearance reminds me a bit of Erin in 1995 as it approached Florida.

THe surrounding environment is incredibly moist dewpoints from recon and soundings show a very condusive environment

Does look like some dry air did make it into it.

[AutoPenalti]

so Bahamas may get pretty good by hurr if gfs right could chance may turn between Bahamas and fl coast line?

That depends on the trough. Is it strong enough to pick it up?

[LarryWx]

I noted earlier so I'm wondering if it sucked in a bit of dry air--the overall appearance reminds me a bit of Erin in 1995 as it approached Florida.

THe surrounding environment is incredibly moist dewpoints from recon and soundings show a very condusive environment

Does look like some dry air did make it into it.

He almost looks like a fetus in the womb in this pic.

[MGC]

0Z GPS right into Chesapeake Bay Sunday morning......MGC

[Alyono]

What's amazing is how fast this exploded into a well defined system, under El Niño conditions.

El niño usually does not produce significant shear in this area. Storms have often intensified significantly here during el niños

[tropicwatch]

LarryWx "He almost looks like a fetus in the womb in this pic. "

Good catch

[PTrackerLA]

Unbelievable, to see the GFS latch on lack that at 18z and now this. And less than 4 days until landfall by tomorrow morning. Oh man...

I'll be honest... I'm glued to this board most of the summer but I never saw this one coming, in this year?! I hope everyone takes this threat seriously tomorrow.